Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2022 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly fantasy averages. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Kirk Cousins, Vikings (versus Chargers). He boasts the position's most fantasy points (45.02), second-best passer rating (114.2) and sixth-best Total QBR (70.8), and he benefits from some of the heftiest usage in the league, his Vikings passing 78% of the time. Now Cousins gets a matchup against a Chargers defense that Tua Tagovailoa tore apart in Week 1, with this week's contest likely to be similarly high-scoring to that one. Chargers-Vikings has easily the week's highest over/under (54 points) and is a pick 'em, giving it the look of an air affair.
Others to like: Matthew Stafford, Rams (at Bengals); Desmond Ridder, Falcons (at Lions).
Matchup to avoid: Justin Fields, Bears (at Chiefs). No team is a bigger underdog than the Bears this week, meaning Fields should again be playing catch-up football late. Unfortunately, he has been one of the least accurate quarterbacks when working from the pocket, his 20.6% off-target rate the league's worst (minimum five starts) and 61.8% completion rate second worst since he entered the league. The opposing Chiefs have played excellent football against the pass, including limiting more polished passer Trevor Lawrence to 9.24 fantasy points in Week 2.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (versus Broncos). He's off to a stellar start as the team's clear No. 1 running back, scoring a sixth-best-at-the-position 38.7 PPR fantasy points while playing 73% of the team's offensive snaps, and has a firm grip on the gig at least until Jeff Wilson Jr. heals. Now Mostert faces a Broncos defense that struggled mightily against Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 2 (28.9 PPR fantasy points, best by any running back so far), has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per carry (0.72) and was also the position's seventh most-favorable matchup last year.
Others to like: Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars (versus Texans); Justice Hill, Ravens (versus Colts).
Matchup to avoid: Dameon Pierce, Texans (at Jaguars). The reasons for this being a problematic matchup are twofold. First, the Jaguars have played solid defense against the run thus far, affording a second-best 0.18 fantasy points per carry to running backs while ranking second with a 77% defensive rush success rate. Second, Pierce's Texans have been constantly playing their games from behind, a pattern that's expected to continue into Week 3. He scored a combined 12.2 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2, but just 5.5 of them came when his team was trailing.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Zay Flowers, Ravens (versus Colts). The Colts' defense has struggled mightily against wide receivers, and is the only one to see three different score 20-plus PPR fantasy points against it (Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins and Tank Dell). Poor cornerback play has been behind it, as the trio of Darrell Baker Jr., Dallis Flowers and Kenny Moore II combined has afforded 24 catches, 336 yards and two scores on 36 targets to opposing wide receivers when the nearest defender, per Next Gen Stats. Flowers, Lamar Jackson's top receiving target thus far, should capitalize.
Others to like: Mike Williams, Chargers (at Vikings); K.J. Osborn, Vikings (versus Chargers).
Matchup to avoid: DeAndre Hopkins, Titans (at Browns). The Browns have afforded wide receivers a combined 40.3 PPR fantasy points, second-fewest in the league, on 38 targets thus far. Of those, 14.1 points came on George Pickens' second-quarter touchdown in Week 2, and let's not forget that this defense kept star receiver Ja'Marr Chase quiet in the opener. The Browns sport three defensive backs among the best 12 in Next Gen Stats' Target EPA (Estimated Points Added), making this a tough week to trust Hopkins as anything more than a WR3.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Sam LaPorta, Lions (versus Falcons). Through two weeks, he has seen the position's seventh-most targets (11), has played the eighth-largest percentage of his team's offensive snaps (82%) and is tied for 20th in routes run (51). That's fantasy-relevant usage, especially for a rookie, considering the position's historical difficulty adapting to NFL play. Now LaPorta faces a Falcons defense that allowed Hayden Hurst to score 15.1 total PPR fantasy points in Week 1, and has afforded the position 1.8 points per target on average (ninth-most) in two games.
Matchup to avoid: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (at Commanders). Darren Waller and the Giants face an almost equally treacherous matchup (@SF, short week), but Waller's usage locks him into the TE1/starting class, whereas Kincaid's share of the role (70% snaps, 10 targets) with Dawson Knox (77%, 9) makes him more susceptible to the matchups.