Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2022 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Jared Goff, Lions (versus Seahawks). His was a plenty serviceable opening-night performance, his 0.40 fantasy points scored per pass attempt within range of the 0.47 he averaged in all of 2022, and his Week 2 matchup skews much more in his favor. The Seahawks surrendered 334 passing yards and a 63% completion rate to Matthew Stafford in Week 1, with Stafford's fantasy point total only looking modest because the Rams wound up running three touchdowns in from inside the 7-yard line. Goff should shoulder a larger load in this game, especially after these teams engaged in a Week 4 meeting last season that resulted in 93 total points and 64.92 combined fantasy points from the quarterbacks. The oddsmakers concur, as Seahawks-Lions is currently tied for the third-highest over/under. Goff gives you a piece of some of that high-scoring action.
Others to like: Geno Smith, Seahawks (at Lions); Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (versus Chiefs).
Matchup to avoid: Dak Prescott, Cowboys (versus Jets). Not that you'd expect a quarterback to be a focal point of a 40-0 blowout, but Prescott's performance in that manhandling of the Giants left plenty to be desired. He completed only four passes that traveled at least six yards beyond the line of scrimmage all night, his 7.0 yard average depth of target considerably beneath the 8.1 he averaged in 2022. Prescott and the Cowboys will have a much tougher time piling on points against the Jets, who gave Bills quarterback Josh Allen headaches in Week 1. In that game, the Jets sacked Allen five times, intercepted him three times and forced him to lose a fumble, while limiting the quarterback to a mere 5.44 fantasy points on his pass attempts.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: James Conner, Cardinals (versus Giants). He has a firmer handle on the Cardinals' starting running back job than most people were willing to give him credit during fantasy draft season, as he played 83% of the offensive snaps, totaled 14 rushing attempts (of 19 among the team's running backs) and ran 23 routes resulting in five receptions. Now Conner gets a much softer matchup than he faced in Week 1, against a Giants defense that couldn't contain Tony Pollard last week. Pollard totaled 22.2 PPR fantasy points behind a pair of rushing touchdowns against this defense, with both of the scores and 20.5 of those points coming in just the first three quarters.
Others to like: Rachaad White, Buccaneers (versus Bears); James Cook, Bills (versus Raiders); Deon Jackson, Colts (at Texans).
Matchup to avoid: Najee Harris, Steelers (versus Browns). Conversely, there was far too much optimism about Harris' 2023 role during fantasy draft season, with many people assuming that he'd match the 65% snap rate or 272 rushing attempts he totaled in 2022. In Week 1, he played a more modest 52% of the snaps and had eight total touches, while Jaylen Warren, whose solid preseason has cast him more partner than change-of-pace running back, played 39% and had eight touches of his own. Now Harris faces a Browns defense that was electric in the season opener, silencing the Bengals' passing game but also holding Joe Mixon to a mere 10.3 PPR fantasy points.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Nico Collins, Texans (versus Colts). It's never easy to trust wide receivers working with rookie quarterbacks, especially in the early stages of the season, but despite C.J. Stroud's Week 1 struggles, there were clear indications that Collins will be a go-to guy in this offense. Collins played 72% of the offensive snaps and saw a team-high 11 targets, resulting in a best-among-Texans-wide receivers 14.0 PPR fantasy points. Now he'll face a Colts defense that struggled to contain Calvin Ridley, Lawrence and the Jaguars' passing game in the opener, with the 2.0 points per target that Jaguars wide receivers averaged sixth best in the league.
Others to like: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (at Rams); Mike Evans, Buccaneers (versus Bears); Mike Williams, Chargers (at Titans).
Matchup to avoid: Garrett Wilson, Jets (at Cowboys). I know, I know, he's too talented to bench in fantasy leagues. Still, the season-ending loss of Aaron Rodgers to an Achilles' injury represents a downgrade to Wilson's overall fantasy prospects, and this is arguably an even tougher matchup than the one against Tre'Davious White and the Bills. Cowboys cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore -- who typically man the perimeter, where Wilson commonly aligns -- afforded Giants receivers a combined 6-67-0 line with one interception and four passes defensed on 12 targets in the opener, and remember that that came in what was an extremely pass-friendly game script. You drafted Wilson as a clear WR1, but he is a midrange WR2 (at best) this week.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Luke Musgrave, Packers (at Falcons). I could flip a coin between Musgrave's and Sam LaPorta's matchups, but LaPorta's prime-time debut generated more fantasy buzz than did Musgrave's game, not to mention I've already mentioned the fantasy goodness that is the Lions' entire offensive matchup in Goff's writeup. Musgrave had a near-identically sized, larger-than-expected role to LaPorta's, playing 75% of the offensive snaps while seeing a 15% target share (LaPorta's numbers were 81% and 16% and he had just 0.9 more PPR fantasy points). Musgrave should also play an important role in red zone situations against a Falcons defense that struggled to keep Hayden Hurst in check in Week 1 (15.1 PPR fantasy points behind a 4-yard touchdown).
Matchup to avoid: Tyler Higbee, Rams (versus 49ers). His 7.9 PPR fantasy point Week 1 will probably go down in the books as a "disappointment," but that's merely because he was overshadowed by a pair of constantly open wide receivers, Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Higbee played 91% of the offensive snaps, ran 26 routes and caught all three of his receptions, but with Matthew Stafford seemingly preferring his young wideouts, it's fair to question how much the tight end can contribute right now. Additionally, this is a brutal matchup against a 49ers defense that gave the Steelers nightmares, particularly tight end Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth was targeted only four times on his 24 routes, and while he turned one of them into a 3-yard touchdown, that's hardly enough to prop Higbee up as a prospective fantasy TE1.