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Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.
There are 97 names in those pieces and, in 89 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.8%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (not to mention that four of Taysom Hill's nine scores came during his four unexpected starts at QB). Last season, the piece correctly identified 17 of 18 TD dippers, with Tyler Lockett the lone exception. Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field, the hit rate remains extremely strong.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.
During the 2011 to 2021 seasons, there were 214 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 177 (82.7%) scored fewer touchdowns the very next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.1. Of the 52 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 50 (96.2%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.5). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).
Every player who scored 14-plus touchdowns in 2021 found the end zone less often in 2022: Jonathan Taylor (20 to 4), Austin Ekeler (20 to 18), James Conner (18 to 8), Joe Mixon (16 to 9), Cooper Kupp (16 to 7), Damien Harris (15 to 3), Deebo Samuel (14 to 5) and Mike Evans (14 to 6).
Last season, Ekeler (18), Jamaal Williams (17) and Davante Adams (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2022 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 17; 2023 projected TDs: 7
Williams led the NFL with 17 TDs last season and it was legitimate -- he was also first in expected TDs (15.7) and his 28 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line were eight more than any other player. Of course, Williams entered 2022 with 21 career TDs and his TD rate last season more than tripled his prior rate. Though he was barely over his expected mark, history tells us that his goal-line usage is all but a lock to take a nosedive. Since 2021, 20 of 21 players who scored 17-plus TDs in a single season scored fewer the following year, with an average dip of 9.7 TDs. A decrease is especially likely with the move from Detroit to New Orleans, so don't be surprised if Williams' TD total is cut in half in 2023.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers 2022 TDs: 11; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Williams might be the obvious choice as the poster boy for this article, but Kittle has a strong case. The veteran TE scored on a tight end-high 12.8% of his targets last season, which was nearly triple his prior career rate (4.3%). He had never cleared six TDs in a season before finding the end zone 11 times in 2022. Kittle ranked second among tight ends with a career-high 10 end zone targets, but as his 5.9 xTD suggests, he was still way over his head. Kittle will need to offset inevitable TD regression with a boost in volume (not a lock in a crowded offense) and improved durability (two-plus missed games each of the past four seasons) if he hopes to repeat as a top-3 fantasy TE.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers 2022 TDs: 18; 2023 projected TDs: 12
From 2011 to 2021, 33 players scored 15-plus TDs in a single season. All but one (Todd Gurley 2017-18) scored fewer TDs the following season. Ekeler has been a TD machine over the past two seasons (20 TDs in 2021, 18 in 2022), but even two years of defying the odds is not enough to justify expecting a similar result in 2023. Ekeler's 13.3 xTD last season was well below his actual output and, while that's still a large number (third highest in the NFL), he was limited to eight carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (17 players had more).
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders 2022 TDs: 14; 2023 projected TDs: 7
Adams' 14 TDs last season marked the second-highest total of his career (18 in 2020). The veteran receiver enjoyed a ton of volume (second in the league with 178 targets and third with 14 end zone targets), but his TD output was still well above his expected mark (8.9). Adams will remain heavily targeted, but with Derek Carr out and super conservative Jimmy Garoppolo in, the star receiver figures to see more high percentage looks, but perhaps fewer TD opportunities.
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers 2022 TDs: 11; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Sanders wins the 2022 award for "biggest overcorrection." A headliner on the "More TDs" version of this article last year, Sanders inexplicably scored zero TDs on 163 touches (4.5 xTD) during a 2021 season in which his former team (Eagles) led the NFL with 25 rushing TDs. Sanders entered 2022 as an obvious regression-to-the-mean candidate and proceeded to score 11 TDs on 279 touches (7.6 xTD). Sanders would've been a good bet for a dip in scoring even if he re-signed with the Eagles, but now in an inferior offense in Carolina, he very well could see his TD total cut in half in 2023.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 9; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Hill's unique, jack-of-all-trades role allowed him to score seven TDs on 96 carries, two TDs on 12 targets and two TDs on 19 pass attempts last season. For the purposes of this exercise, we're focused only on rush and receiving TDs, and Hill's nine in that area were well above his 4.4 expected mark. He didn't actually see much goal-line work (three carries inside the opponent's 7-yard line) and required runs of 8-plus yards on five of his seven rush TDs (he had seven such TD runs in his career before 2022). Hill has continued to defy math in the TD department (seven-plus scores in three of the past four seasons), but it's tough to justify betting on such an unsustainable pace, especially with him likely to play a lesser role at QB (Derek Carr), RB (Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller) and TE (Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau).
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles 2022 TDs: 11; 2023 projected TDs: 7
This one might raise some eyebrows considering Brown has scored at least nine TDs in three of his first four NFL seasons. However, a deeper look at the numbers tells us to proceed with caution. Brown's 6.5 xTD in 2022 -- his first year with the Eagles -- was a career high, but also well below his actual output. Brown handled a career-high 11 end zone targets and has never finished higher than 12th among WRs in the category. Brown's hyperefficiency makes this one risky, but at least a small drop in scoring seems probable.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys 2022 TDs: 12; 2023 projected TDs: 10
Pollard might seem like a strong candidate for a boost in scoring after the offseason departure of Ezekiel Elliott, but 12 is a tough number to reach either way. Pollard entered 2022 with 10 career TDs (7.8 xTD) on 399 touches, but made the leap to 12 scores (5.9 xTD) on 232 touches in his fourth season. He scored seven of his nine rushing TDs on runs of at least 7 yards, which tied for most in the league. His expected TD total was 1.6 on his 185 carries from that 7-plus-yard distance, which shows the unsustainability of that scoring rate. He also caught three TDs after totaling two scoring receptions during his first three pro campaigns.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns 2022 TDs: 13; 2023 projected TDs: 10
Chubb is one of the best rushers in the game, but it's nonetheless an easy call to project a step back in scoring after he produced a career-high 13 TDs in 2022. Although Chubb does most of his damage on the ground (12 TDs, 7.7 xTD), he added one score in the passing game after totaling there during his first four NFL campaigns (two during his rookie season in 2018). Chubb has produced at least eight rush TDs in all five of his NFL seasons, so while a dip is expected, he remains a strong bet to push for double digits.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears 2022 TDs: 7; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Kmet is another candidate for last year's "biggest overcorrection" award. In 2021, Kmet ranked 14th at tight end in both expected TDs (4.5) and end zone targets (six) but was not one of the 61 tight ends who scored a TD that season. In 2022, Kmet saw the same number of end zone targets and actually had a lower xTD (3.0), but leapt to seven TDs. His 9.9% TD rate was third highest among TEs. Barring a big boost in scoring from the Chicago offense and/or a leap in targets, Kmet figures to slide a bit in 2023.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 7; 2023 projected TDs: 4
A converted wide receiver, Johnson found his way onto the fantasy radar as a pass-catching TE in 2022. Most of that damage came in the scoring department, as the 2022 UDFA ranked third at the position in TD receptions (seven), but 18th in targets (65). Johnson was well above his 3.4 xTD and four of his scores required post-catch runs of at least 10 yards (those four plays totaled a 0.13 xTD). Johnson is a good bet for a dip in 2023 and that was the case even before the addition of Foster Moreau.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers 2022 TDs: 8; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Aiyuk caught a career-high eight TDs in 2022 despite ranking 25th among WRs in targets (114) and 51st in expected TDs (3.7). Interestingly, he was limited to only three end zone targets (two TDs), but was targeted while within 9 yards of the goal line nine times (four TDs). The 25-year-old caught exactly five TDs during his first two seasons, and while he did rush for two scores as a rookie in 2020, he has no TDs on seven carries over the past two seasons. Barring a massive leap from second-year QB Brock Purdy, Aiyuk should see a TD dip in 2023.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers 2022 TDs: 9; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Watson enjoyed one of the most notable TD-scoring stretches of the 2022 season. After barely seeing the field during Weeks 1 to 9 (one TD during the stretch), the then-rookie stepped into an every down role in Week 10 and proceeded to score eight TDs in his next four games. The regression bug took over from there, however, as he was held without a single score during his final four outings. Watson is a clear breakout candidate this season, even with a dip in TDs a strong possibility.
Others:
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys