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Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.
There are 97 names in those pieces and, in 89 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.8%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (not to mention that four of Taysom Hill's nine scores came during his four unexpected starts at QB). Last season, the piece correctly identified 17 of 18 TD dippers, with Tyler Lockett the lone exception. Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field, the hit rate remains extremely strong.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.
During the 2011 to 2021 seasons, there were 214 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 177 (82.7%) scored fewer touchdowns the very next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.1. Of the 52 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 50 (96.2%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.5). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).
Every player who scored 14-plus touchdowns in 2021 found the end zone less often in 2022: Jonathan Taylor (20 to 4), Austin Ekeler (20 to 18), James Conner (18 to 8), Joe Mixon (16 to 9), Cooper Kupp (16 to 7), Damien Harris (15 to 3), Deebo Samuel (14 to 5) and Mike Evans (14 to 6).
Last season, Ekeler (18), Jamaal Williams (17) and Davante Adams (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2022 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints 2022 TDs: 17; 2023 projected TDs: 7
Williams led the NFL with 17 TDs last season and it was legitimate -- he was also first in expected TDs (15.7) and his 28 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line were eight more than any other player. Of course, Williams entered 2022 with 21 career TDs and his TD rate last season more than tripled his prior rate. Though he was barely over his expected mark, history tells us that his goal-line usage is all but a lock to take a nosedive. Since 2021, 20 of 21 players who scored 17-plus TDs in a single season scored fewer the following year, with an average dip of 9.7 TDs. A decrease is especially likely with the move from Detroit to New Orleans, so don't be surprised if Williams' TD total is cut in half in 2023.