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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2011 to '21 seasons, there were 135 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before again managing at least 50 touches the next season. Of those 135 instances, 93 times (68.9%) the player scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 38 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first season, 30 of them (78.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 12 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 10 of them (83.3%) found the end zone more often the next season. Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the two exceptions.
Last season, 33 WRs/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches last season, with notables below three scores including Diontae Johnson (0), Chase Claypool (1), Pat Freiermuth (2), Courtland Sutton (2), Hayden Hurst (2) and Robert Woods (2).
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 32 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 32 instances, 26 times (81.3%) the player scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were three backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first season, but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller). Those three players averaged 9.3 touchdowns in that second season!
Last season, 12 RBs fell short of seven TDs on 200-plus touches, which is a larger sample than usual. Of those 12, four scored fewer than five TDs: Brian Robinson Jr. (3 TDs, 214 touches), Alvin Kamara (4, 280), Tyler Allgeier (4, 226) and Jonathan Taylor (4, 220).
Of the players on that list one year ago, Saquon Barkley leaped from four to 10 TDs and Dalvin Cook from six to 10 TDs.
If you skipped all of the above, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar opportunity the following season.
In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of the 2022 usage for each of the players below tells us that we should expect a boost in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.
NOTE: This study is limited to rushing and receiving data for the regular season only.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 TDs: 0; 2023 projected TDs: 5
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
2022 TDs: 6; 2023 projected TDs: 8
Johnson is a layup call, but a less-obvious candidate for a big boost in scoring is Metcalf. The big man was incomprehensibly held to six TDs last season despite racking up 24 end zone targets, nine more than any other player and the most in a single season since DeAndre Hopkins had 25 in 2017 (Hopkins scored 13 TDs that season). Metcalf caught only five of those 24 end zone targets (8.9 xTD on those plays), and his sixth score required a post-catch run of 25 yards. Prior to 2022, Metcalf had caught a healthy 19 of 48 end zone targets. His 11.0 xTD in 2022 ranked eighth in the entire NFL and actually aligned well with his actual TD output in both 2020 (10) and 2021 (12). Metcalf has never finished a season lower than fourth among WRs in end zone targets and is a strong bet for more scoring in 2023.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
2022 TDs: 4; 2023 projected TDs: 8
Wilson was one of the league's busiest wide receivers as a rookie, but the Ohio State product was able to find the end zone on only four of his 148 targets (sixth most at the position). Wilson tied for fifth in the NFL with 13 end zone targets but was able to corral only two. His other scores required post-catch runs of 1 and 37 yards. His actual TD output was less than half of his 8.1 xTD. The 22-year-old is a candidate for a scoring boost regardless of his quarterback, but having Aaron Rodgers under center figures to lead to a big leap in this department.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 TDs: 5; 2023 projected TDs: 8
Etienne had a productive de facto first NFL season, finishing 10th among RBs with 1,441 scrimmage yards. Unfortunately, his fantasy output didn't follow suit, as his five TDs ranked 31st at the position. Etienne finished 10th among RBs with 10 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and also saw an end zone target (there were only 52 of them by RBs last season), which helped him to a healthy 9.2 xTD. Assuming similar usage in 2023, Etienne is a strong bet to find the end zone more often.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
2022 TDs: 4; 2023 projected TDs: 10
Injuries played a part in Taylor's drop from 20 TDs in 2021 to four in 2022, but he was also a bit unlucky in that department. After exceeding his xTD in both 2020 and 2021 (combined 32 TDs and 25.5 xTD), Taylor fell short of his 5.9 xTD in 2022. Taylor scored on 12 of 30 carries within 5 yards of the goal line and added six additional rushing TDs from farther out in 2021. Last season, he scored on three of four carries within 2 yards of the goal line, and his only other rushing TD came from 66 yards out. Taylor, who led the NFL with 26 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in 2021, could lose some goal line work to Anthony Richardson, but the 24-year-old back is still a candidate for a big leap in scoring.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
2022 TDs: 3; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Waller makes this list for the second year in a row, though he's on a new team this time around. The veteran TD scored nine TDs (7.7 xTD) in 2020 but plummeted to two (5.2 xTD) in 11 games in 2021 before finding the end zone three times (5.7 xTD) in nine games last season. Waller has finished top 10 at tight end in expected TDs and end zone targets in each of the past three seasons despite missing 14 games during the span. The Giants rank dead last in pass TDs over the past three seasons, but the addition of Waller should help with that, so don't be surprised if he doubles his 2022 scoring output.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 TDs: 2; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Granted, he was in a little over his head, but Freiermuth ranked sixth among TEs with seven TDs (5.4 xTD) as a second-round rookie in 2021. He fell back to earth last season, producing only two scores (3.8 xTD) despite a big boost in targets. Though there was clearly some bad luck there, Freiermuth's work near the end zone dipped; he handled seven end zone targets in 2021 but just four in 2022. Pittsburgh's efficiency near the goal line figures to improve in Kenny Pickett's second season, which only adds to Freiermuth's likelihood of a scoring increase.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
2022 TDs: 2; 2023 projected TDs: 6
Sutton was on this same list one year ago and was one of the exceptions who failed to increase his TD total. The veteran WR has scored a grand total of four TDs in 32 games over the past two seasons. Incredibly, he saw a boost in targets, receptions, yards, xTD and end zone targets in 2022 but ended up with two TDs for the second season in a row. Sutton's 13 end zone targets were fifth most among WRs, and he has now reached 11 in three of his four "full" NFL seasons. If Sean Payton gets Russell Wilson and the Denver offense on track, Sutton should be a lock for a big boost in TDs in 2023.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
2022 TDs: 3; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Robinson appeared in 12 games during his rookie season and ended up with a healthy 214 touches. His efficiency wasn't particularly impressive, and he fell well short of expectations in the TD department (three TDs, 5.4 xTD). Those numbers would look even worse had he not scored on one of his 12 targets (0.1 xTD on those plays). Robinson scored on two of his four carries from the opponent's 1-yard line but failed to find the end zone on any of his other 201 rushing attempts. He's is expected to remain the primary rusher and goal line back (he handled five of the team's seven carries inside the 5-yard line when active last season), so a boost in scoring should be in the cards.
Chase Claypool, WR, Chicago Bears
2022 TDs: 1; 2023 projected TDs: 4
Claypool is quite the curious case. Since scoring 11 TDs on 72 touches as a second-round rookie in 2020, Claypool has produced three TDs on 128 touches over the past two seasons. Granted, he was traded from Pittsburgh to Chicago during the 2022 season, but he still posted career-low marks in touches (55), yardage (510), TDs (1), end zone targets (4) and expected TDs (3.4) despite appearing in 15 games. Chicago traded the first pick of the second round to acquire Claypool, so he's a good bet to be a featured target alongside DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney in 2023. Especially at 6-foot-4, a big rebound in scoring is likely.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
2022 TDs: 2; 2023 projected TDs: 5
Sticking with the Chicago theme, Mooney is a candidate for a career high in TDs with an improved Bears offense set up for a leap forward in 2023. Mooney scored four TDs as a rookie in 2020 (4.3 xTD), five TDs in 2021 (5.4 xTD) and two TDs in an injury-shortened 2022 (3.4 xTD). He has seen at least seven end zone targets in each of his three pro campaigns. With added competition and a 176-pound frame, Mooney's TD upside is limited, but doubling his 2022 output is still very much attainable.