If you're not already aware, I'm the human who creates the fantasy football player projections here at ESPN.
Although some would swear the projection numbers are totally automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not. I have a lengthy process that involves a mixture of statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this piece truly comes in handy. To begin each NFL season, I go team by team and thoroughly analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, on the player level, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player.
I recently completed that process and -- same as in recent years -- took notes. Below are my observations, as well as a brief application to fantasy football in 2023.
Be sure to also check out our sortable player projection page, as well as my detailed 2023 NFL Projection PDF Guide, which is routinely updated throughout the offseason.
1. The Cardinals ran a fast-paced offense that leaned toward the pass during all four seasons of the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era. However, Kevin Stefanski has called a slow-paced offense that leaned heavily toward the run during all four of his full seasons as a playcaller. New Arizona playcaller Drew Petzing worked under Stefanski during that entire span, and it's likely he'll bring at least some elements of Stefanski's style to the desert. This could lead to more called runs and fewer offensive snaps for Murray (who is recovering from a torn ACL and could miss some early-season games) and the Cardinals' offense.
2. Cardinals RB James Conner is entering his seventh NFL season having yet to appear in 100% of his team's games in a single regular season. He has missed at least two games every year, which includes four in 2022. Conner finished the 2022 season with eight consecutive top-20 fantasy weeks, and he's been top 10 in fantasy PPG each of the past two seasons, but it's fair to expect the 28-year-old to miss some action again in 2023.
3. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts averaged a massive 28% target share last season. That trailed only Mark Andrews for tops among tight ends. Coach Arthur Smith has called the plays for four seasons, and all four of his tight end units had a target share in the 25-29% range. Even with Jonnu Smith reunited with his old playcaller, Pitts shouldn't have trouble ranking near the position leaders in targets this season. I know last year was rough, but he very much fits the profile of an intriguing post-hype sleeper. Hey, don't roll your eyes at me!