The 2023 NFL offseason has not thus far produced the sizzling storylines of last offseason, when players such as Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson were all traded. That will change once Aaron Rodgers is finally traded to the New York Jets and if Lamar Jackson finds a new home as well (my guess remains that he stays in Baltimore), but even without the same volume of splash moves, much has changed.
So let's go ahead and whip around 10 of the biggest moves of the NFL offseason that have a fantasy fallout to them, offering up our initial thoughts as we look ahead to the 2023 regular season. Given that the NFL draft could dramatically alter all 32 rosters, we'll account for all future transactions as we get closer to the season.
1. Rodgers deal from the Jets' side
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2. Rodgers deal from the Packers' side
All right, this one feels too consequential to not view through both lenses. I have little reason to believe the Packers will use their running backs much differently than in 2022, so Aaron Jones will enter the season as the preferred option with fringe top-15 value, though being susceptible to losing goal-line carries and work to AJ Dillon (flex value). But the passing game is the more intriguing part of the equation, as Jordan Love is a football mystery, having barely played through three seasons. The Packers have immense confidence in him, but it's hard to plant my flag firmly on his value. He's a good-but-not-great athlete who will gain some yards on the ground, and for now is on the QB2 radar depending on how proficient a passer he is right away. Christian Watson is one of the buzziest players in the fantasy community this season, due to an expectation that he should see beefed-up volume (he had 52 targets in his final eight games after just 14 in his first six). That's good enough to balance out the likely quarterback downgrade and touchdown regression.
3. Bears make a splash at WR
The best wide receiver to change teams this offseason has been DJ Moore, who was shipped to Chicago as part of a deal that moved Carolina up to the first pick in the draft. Moore had a remarkably consistent stint from 2019-21, during which he had between 1,157 and 1,193 yards in every season, on top of exactly four touchdown catches in each of those years. The truth is Moore has never had a prolonged stretch with a pure pocket passer, so his fantasy ceiling still feels untapped. In Chicago, he'll play with Justin Fields, a quarterback who is clearly one of the best at running the ball but has not yet shown elite-level passing production for a sustained period as a pro (Fields is still seeking his first career 300-yard passing game). However, we have to look only to Fields' final season at Ohio State to recall excellent distribution skills. The Chicago offense has a chance to be one of the most transformed in the league this season, as Moore's arrival coupled with the healthy return of Darnell Mooney and improvement of Chase Claypool -- with an offseason to get up to speed -- puts them in a position to do real damage through the air. Moore emerges as the clear alpha of that group for fantasy purposes and will deserve a top-20ish preseason ranking.
4. Cowboys wave goodbye to Zeke, franchise Pollard
The Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott after making the decision to franchise tag Tony Pollard, their breakout star in 2022 who -- at this juncture -- has way more juice and a better overall skill set than Elliott. While Pollard was RB8 last season, he handled 38 fewer carries than Elliott (who also got heavy goal-line usage), leaving plenty of room for growth. Pollard is recovering from a nasty broken ankle suffered in the playoffs, but if he is healthy to begin the 2023 season, he has a chance to enter the elite tier of fantasy backs. He's a speedy, nifty, agile runner and an excellent pass-catcher (he was a wide receiver in college). Absent Dallas making a legit investment in another back, Pollard is a clear offseason winner so far.
5. Tom Brady retires
The GOAT has hung 'em up for good. Congratulations on the greatest run in NFL history. The Buccaneers need a new starting quarterback, and Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are in line to compete for the gig. While Brady wasn't great last season, the Bucs' offense looks likely to take a step back with whomever is under center; Mayfield finished strong in Los Angeles but struggled in Carolina, while Trask hasn't thrown an NFL pass of consequence. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have entered the past three seasons as top-15 valued wideouts, but both will be discounted this year. It's easy to forecast a dip in efficiency and explosiveness in Tampa Bay, especially compared to how we valued the Bucs' offseason a year ago at this time.
6. Miles Sanders departs for Carolina
Sanders parlayed his best season in the NFL into a four-year deal with the Panthers that includes $13 million in guaranteed dough. Carolina lost leading rusher D'Onta Foreman to the Bears, leaving Sanders as the clear-cut top option with little competition other than Chuba Hubbard, who is better served as a change-of-pace back. Sanders is coming off a career-low 20 receptions last season, but he's a capable receiver (he had 50 catches as a rookie) who should be busier in that regard this season. While no longer playing in Philly's offense could lead to decreased rushing efficiency, increased passing-game volume and the chance to run behind an offensive line that returns all five starters keeps Sanders on the midtier RB2 radar.
7. Rashaad Penny replaces Sanders
The Eagles have a track record of resourcefully investing in the backfield, evidenced again this offseason when they replaced Sanders (at $6.25 million per season) with Penny on a deal worth up to $2.1 million maximum. Health has limited Penny to just 42 games in five seasons, but he's an excellent pure runner with an impressive 5.7 yards per attempt for his career. The Eagles don't figure to ask Penny to do much receiving (the Seahawks didn't, either), but that's totally fine. As we saw with Sanders, the lead rusher in this backfield could sail past 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Philly offensive line is arguably the best in football, and the Eagles ran for 32 touchdowns last season, making Penny a winner. As of this writing, the Seahawks have not made a major investment in their backfield to replace Penny, which fortifies what was clear last season: Ken Walker III has top-10 upside at the position.
8. The NFC North RB carousel
Let's start in Detroit, as the Lions have a new likely starter in David Montgomery after handing the former Bear a three-year deal worth up to $18 million. Montgomery is steady, dependable and does a little bit of everything. I expect him to float right around the border of RB2/flex range -- it won't be a sexy pick, but his floor is high. Meanwhile, as much as we may like to in our own minds, the Lions don't seem intent on making D'Andre Swift a featured back. Swift has abundant talent and I believe could thrive as a lead back on his own, but Montgomery's presence suppresses his ceiling. I'll have Swift and Montgomery ranked similarly going into the season, but Swift is the higher-variance player. Montgomery's arrival in Detroit had a chain reaction, including Jamaal Williams heading to New Orleans. While Williams had a jackpot year in fantasy last season, with more than 1,000 yards rushing and a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns, he's bound for regression in New Orleans ... with one caveat. Should Alvin Kamara face a suspension for a 2022 off-field incident, Williams would reclaim top 15-20 RB value for however long that lasts. He'll have a role either way and is a valuable insurance add. Meanwhile, Chicago plucked D'Onta Foreman on a one-year deal after his breakthrough season in 2022. The Bears look likely to lean on Foreman on early downs, with Khalil Herbert and a splash of Travis Homer to play roles as well. Foreman carries the most value but is just a strong flex play with limited receiving upside.
9. Sneaky value in Buffalo?
The Bills stayed within the AFC East to add a running back in free agency, inking former Patriot Damien Harris to a one-year deal, coinciding with Devin Singletary signing a one-year deal in Houston. While the money (a maximum value of just $1.77 million) doesn't reflect a major investment, this has the potential to be a value: Harris' signature trait is his finishing skill as a runner near the goal line -- in 2021, he scored 15 touchdowns. The Bills have lacked a back with Harris' goal-line acumen in recent seasons, and coach Sean McDermott has already spoken this offseason about being mindful of how many hits Josh Allen takes. That doesn't mean Allen will not be used as a rusher -- he's a massive advantage in that regard. But Buffalo may be inclined to use Harris enough to envision a 2021-like season for him. James Cook should lead the backfield in touches and is definitely the superior receiver, but Harris is a preferred value target with a shot at double-digit touchdowns in 2023.
10. Cowboys land Cooks in a Texas trade
The Cowboys regretted trading away Amari Cooper last offseason and worked to atone for that by acquiring Brandin Cooks from the Texans (who themselves added TE Dalton Schultz from the Cowboys as a free agent). Cooks has been traded four times already in his career, but that isn't because he lacks talent -- he has six 1,000-yard seasons to his name, including back-to-back such campaigns in 2020 and 2021. CeeDee Lamb remains the clear top option in Dallas and has top-five wideout upside, but Cooks should be in line for a useful enough role to be a weekly starter as a flex option in this offense. The Cowboys have talked about establishing the run and perhaps slowing down the pace of their offense this season following a coordinator change, but Cooks should slide into a perimeter role that profiles for 100-plus targets and a real shot at 1,000 yards again. His ceiling is tapped (he has just 22 touchdowns over the past five seasons), but with enough target and yardage volume, he'll do enough to stay in lineups. Michael Gallup will also play a role for the Cowboys and should not be ignored as a late-round flier.