For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things may change between this posting and game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 16.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks: Mahomes and the Chiefs have the highest implied team total of the week -- a stat that typically leads to strong QB performance, even at this extremely high price. The weather is going to be extremely cold but, typically speaking, we worry more about extreme wind or precipitation in order to hurt fantasy performances. Paying up for Mahomes in tournaments can provide enough differentiation for the possible upside. Mahomes has had a league-best seven games with three-plus TD passes this season and has reached the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings in all five games when Kansas City has been favored by more than seven points.
Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants: Finding your way into the good-weather games this week is also a winning strategy, especially in a situation like this. The Giants have allowed multiple TD passes in three of their last four games and allow the sixth-most yards per completion in the league. This game presents an opportunity to get exposure to correlated high-volume, high-talent targets through Cousins as a solid QB stacking option.
Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: Prior to Week 15, Smith had a streak of seven straight games with multiple TD passes and, for the season, he has thrown multiple TD passes in a league-high 11 games. Kansas City's defense has also allowed opponents to score a ton through the air, allowing a league-high 5.9% of passes to result in a touchdown (the league average is only 4.2%). Assuming that the Seahawks will be playing catch-up as 9.5-point underdogs, Smith will be forced to throw more often than usual against a defense that serves up increased efficiency on a weekly basis.
Also interested in
Dak Prescott ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia's defense is very tough, however the Cowboys offense is a difficult one to stop. Prescott has thrown multiple TD passes in six of his last seven games and has completed 71.4% of his passes over his last five games.
Gardner Minshew ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Minshew is likely to fill in for an injured Jalen Hurts. If so, note that he has thrown multiple TD passes in 14 of his 22 career starts and has surpassed 40 attempts in seven of those games -- five of which he exceeded 300-yards passing.
Running backs
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders: McCaffrey gets such great volume that he doesn't need to be in the best of matchups to succeed. However, this week against the Commanders, it's another fine matchup for him. A league-high 7.9% of RB targets against the Commanders have resulted in a touchdown. So, on top of his tremendous volume, McCaffrey also has heightened TD-expectancy this week. Logging a 20-plus yard carry in three straight games, a 25-plus yard catch in two of his last three, and 25-plus touches or multiple touchdowns in three straight games, McCaffrey is once again the perfect option to pay up for this week.
Derrick Henry ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel), Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans: Sometimes you just have to take both of the top-priced running backs on DraftKings and jam them into your lineups. Week 16 does appear to be one of those spots. 43.1% of all yards against the Texans come on the ground, the second-highest total in the league and the highest on the main slate. Henry has also been added to the passing game this year, logging multiple catches in six straight games and a 35-plus yard reception in three of his last five outings. In his last five games against Houston, he has averaged 196 rushing yards with a total of nine touchdowns. With Ryan Tannehill out for the rest of the season, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Henry to now have 30-plus opportunities in every game. Considering the matchup and history between these two teams, the possibility for an absolutely game-breaking performance is high.
Dalvin Cook ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants: The Giants are tied with Arizona for the most red zone drives allowed in the league and they allow 5.4 yards per RB carry. Cook has provided many big plays this season, including a 64-yard TD catch on a screen pass last week, which may encourage the Vikings to use him more in the passing game as his target total yo-yos from week to week. Very few players average over 70% of their team's RB touches, but Cook ranks fourth overall in that category at 76.9%.
Also interested in
Jerick McKinnon ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks: Last week, McKinnon logged his highest snap percentage (61%) of the season. Some of that could be due to the fact that Isiah Pacheco has fumbled one too many times for the coaching staff's liking. If the rookie gets "ignored" again here in Week 16, McKinnon could have a field day against a Seattle defense that allows the third-highest RB completion percentage and the most yards per RB target.
Wide receivers
Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants: "Plan A" this week is to pay up at running back, which leaves Jefferson with a potentially low percentage of tournament play against the Giants, a defense that allows the fifth-most yards per play in the league. Jefferson has logged a touchdown in three of his last four games, with the only game he failed to reach the end zone in that bunch being the one in which he happened to set a franchise record with 223 receiving yards. Jefferson has hit the 100-yard bonus a league-high nine times this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: Always target targets. St. Brown has seen eight-plus targets in eight straight games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind Chris Godwin (9). The matchup against Carolina brings in the fifth-most blitz-heavy team in the league, going up against a Lions offense which targets St. Brown on 41% of his routes when Jared Goff is blitzed.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks: When he's been healthy, Smith-Schuster has been an absolute monster for the Chiefs. He's had three double-digit target games this season, two coming in the last two weeks. Smith-Schuster is a high-floor and potentially high-ceiling target for Mahomes this week against Seattle. The matchup is solid as the Seahawks allow the second-highest completion percentage (77.2%) on "short passes that travel under 10 air yards." Smith-Schuster has seen his aDOT fall from 8.4 over the first 12 weeks of the season to 6.4 since Week 13. While this might normally be viewed as something that could bring down his potential for a ceiling game, against the Seahawks, it's a great sign.
Also interested in
DK Metcalf ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: Metcalf has always been an "alpha" target, but with Tyler Lockett not playing this week, we could see an absolutely monstrous target market share here. The Seahawks already have the seventh-highest passing rate this season and, as we've already mentioned, the TD possibility for Metcalf here (in a game where Seattle is a huge underdog) is off the charts.
DJ Moore ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions: Most weeks, Moore is a volatile target to roster, but the matchup here is prime. Detroit has allowed a league-high 6.2 yards per play this season and their 12.5 yards per completion is second-most in the league. Moore has also seen a return to being a deeper downfield threat since Sam Darnold has been under center, averaging 2.6 fantasy points per target including an 18.9-yard aDOT.
Tight ends
Dalton Schultz ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles: I like to target players who are coming off a bad game in the previous week as, typically, fewer people will be on that target in tournaments. Enter Schultz in Week 16. Schultz had seen an end zone target in each of his last five games before Week 15 and 11 red zone targets over that run. Michael Gallup has not proven capable of being the team's No. 2 pass-catcher in his first season back from a very serious knee injury, so Prescott has had to -- and will continue to have to -- lean on Schultz until something changes.
Noah Fant ($3,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: With the absence of Lockett, Fant projects to run a few more routes this week and be a few percentage points higher in terms of his target market share in Seattle. Kansas city has the league's second-worst red zone defense and Fant ranks third on Seattle in red zone targets.
Also interested in
Travis Kelce ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks: It will be extremely difficult to find the money to pay up for Kelce, which makes him an absolute luxury in tournaments and a separator at the position. Seattle allows the second-most yards per TE target and a league-high 7.4 yards after the catch per TE reception.
George Kittle ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,00 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders: Here's another premium option to consider paying up for at a low percentage in tournaments. The possibility of 20-plus points on DraftKings is heightened due to the absence of Deebo Samuel and separating from the rest of the field at the TE position is always going to be a winning strategy. We should always try to take advantage of premium tight ends at low percentages.
Defenses
Dallas Cowboys ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), vs. Eagles
Carolina Panthers ($2,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel), vs. Lions
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.