News that Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is uncertain to play this Saturday against the Cowboys because of a sprained shoulder rocked the entire NFL landscape, as Hurts has played a leading role in guiding Philly to a 13-1 record; and if I had a vote, he would be my pick for the league's MVP.
He also has a compelling case for the most valuable player in fantasy football, as he has been the highest-scoring quarterback in the league and is coming off three straight games with 30-plus fantasy points (he "slumped" four games ago when he had just 29.82 points against the Packers).
Hurts was the third-most popular player on playoff rosters this season, as 65.4% of people who had him as their quarterback made the playoffs. That's simply absurd.
The truth is, anyone with Hurts has a decidedly less rosy outlook for this week and potentially longer, but fantasy football is an unpredictable game, so don't count yourself out yet!
Let's dive into the fallout from the injury, beginning with potential replacements:
Gardner Minshew, Eagles: It's always good when you can turn in house for a potential replacement, and Minshew fits the bill. The circumstances are decidedly different now, but back in 2019 Minshew started 12 games for the Jaguars and averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game in those starts. He had 21 or more fantasy points in four of them and rushed for more than 350 yards for the season. Philly has an elite group of pass-catchers and offensive linemen around him, so this offense can still be successful. He's my QB12 for the week, as he is not nearly the runner Hurts is.
Jared Goff, Lions: Goff has been so good for the Lions of late, especially when playing at home. The Lions are on the road this weekend in Carolina, but the matchup isn't as daunting as it was last week against the Jets. The ceiling might not be especially high, but the possibility of 250 passing yards and two touchdowns is in play. He's my QB16 this week.
Derek Carr, Raiders: While it hasn't been the season we expected for the Raiders' offense, Carr has still had some moments of late. He has multiple TD passes in six of his past seven games (between 16 and 20 fantasy points in those games) and has attempted at least 36 passes in five of those seven. He's my QB18 this week.
As far as the pass-catchers go, wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith remain strong plays. Minshew is unquestionably a very solid passer, and we're talking about arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL right now -- I'm playing both with confidence. Same goes with Dallas Goedert.
Miles Sanders sees a bit of a boost in his stock for one obvious reason: more rushing touchdown upside. Hurts has 23 goal-to-go rushes this season, second most in the NFL and easily the most on the Eagles. He has two games this season with three rushing touchdowns. Sanders was already a lineup lock (I know, I know, last week was a massive egg), but his fantasy fortunes should be even richer until Hurts returns.
Here's hoping Hurts is back on the field soon (this Saturday would be amazing), but it's important to have a fantasy plan in case he is not.
The Jonathan Taylor injury fallout
Jonathan Taylor's season is over.
Let me start by telling you that no one is more disappointed in that reality than he is. I guarantee it. Do not forget that.
For fantasy football purposes, it's the conclusion of what was a season gone by the wayside, as the consensus No. 1 overall pick was limited to just 11 games played (which includes his zero-carry day in Week 15) and held to a total of four touchdowns.
Taylor looked like himself just prior to this latest injury, as four straight performances with at least 20 carries and multiple catches reminded us of the guy who dominated in fantasy last season. But that was a brief stretch in what was otherwise a tough season for Taylor, who I have no doubt will be back to being an elite player when healthy next season. No doubt.
Before we look forward to what Taylor's injury means for those who are still in their playoffs, I wanted to share one thought from the preseason: I think we put a disproportionate amount of weight on prior durability track records. Part of the case for Taylor was that he had not missed a game in his college or pro career prior to this season. It seems like -- in hindsight -- it became too big of a part of the case, especially when juxtaposed with Christian McCaffrey, whose durability concerns went from invincible two-plus years ago (he missed zero games in his first three seasons) to front and center after 23 games missed over the past two seasons.
I think it's important to consider a player's track record of injuries going into any season, but I think it can also prove to be a bit too much of a crutch for analysis. It's extremely difficult for running backs to stay healthy; there's an element of good luck in durability that cannot be denied. While it is unequivocally part of the equation, I think it's important to be reminded that it is very much just a piece of the puzzle.
As for the Colts' next three games, I expect that what was once a backfield dominated by a single back will wind up being a split between Zack Moss and Deon Jackson, as was the case in Week 15. Jackson saw 13 carries for 55 yards and converted one target into a 1-yard touchdown catch, giving him the edge in fantasy points (10.6 to 8.1), but Moss saw 24 carries for 81 yards and had a decided snap edge (53 to 25). Given how things shook out in Week 15, I have Moss ranked ahead of Jackson for Week 16's matchup against the Chargers (a great one for running backs): Moss is my RB27 and Jackson is my RB43.
Watson no lineup lock
When Deshaun Watson returned from an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy by committing sexual assault, as defined by the league, on massage therapists, there was an expectation that his on-field performance would resemble how he had played in prior seasons in his career. From 2017 to '20, Watson averaged the second-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, trailing only Patrick Mahomes.
Through three games, Watson has looked far from that player, as he has passing yardage totals of 131, 276 and 161, while throwing just two touchdowns (matched by two interceptions) and finishing as QB30, QB14 and QB21 in those games. It's not a massive sample yet, but he's completing just 60.9% of his passes and averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. While he does have 19 rushing attempts, those are averaging just 4.0 yards per carry, and he has not yet rushed for a touchdown.
The eye test aligns with the numbers, as while there have been individual plays that have looked like how Watson played in the past, he generally has looked like an inferior player. Simply put. Facing off against a Saints defense this weekend that has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards per game and just 16 total passing touchdowns this season (tied for sixth fewest), Watson is not a lineup lock. The outlook is even more grim when examining what could be brutal weather conditions that involve extreme cold and major winds in Cleveland on Saturday. I have him as QB17 on my board this week. Those who added Watson figuring he would be a weekly starter have had to, or should now, pivot in a different direction.
McKinnon magic
Next offseason, as we pore over dozens of running backs we are keeping our eyes on in 2023, I want you to remember this moment in time. In both Weeks 14 and 15 of this regular season, Jerick McKinnon was the highest-scoring running back. Incredible!
This isn't to say offseason analysis isn't valuable, but rather that there is so much more to winning a fantasy championship than just the offseason advice you listen to that assists you in your draft. In-season roster management is almost always a more valuable piece of the championship puzzle.
The value in McKinnon is derived from a few factors (beyond his obvious skill set):
• Pass-catching reliability: McKinnon has 17 targets over the past two weeks and has turned those into 15 catches for 182 yards. Not all, but enough of his targets are checkdown/dump-off variety that are safe bets to be turned into catches and yards after the catch.
• The two-man backfield: With Clyde Edwards-Helaire still on IR, the Chiefs have relied basically on just two backs of late with McKinnon and rookie Isiah Pacheco. Over the past two weeks, McKinnon has played 57% and 62% of the offensive snaps. That's plenty good for him.
• Rushing uptick: In Weeks 13-15, McKinnon had 24 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown. In the six games prior to that, he had 14 carries for 43 yards and no scores. While he's superior as a pass-catcher, the added rushing volume certainly helps.
The Chiefs are expected to have Mecole Hardman back this Saturday, and Kadarius Toney should wind up playing a larger role as he gets healthier as well. Both of them could limit McKinnon's targets a bit, but with the way he's playing right now, he's extremely worthy of a spot in anyone's lineup. McKinnon is my RB18 for the week.