Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
With the fantasy playoffs starting, let's focus on the player matchups in Week 15 of the NFL schedule. There's two running backs I want in my lineup. An upside WR2 versus a zone-heavy secondary. And we'll also look at some players who are sliding in my rankings, before finishing with my notes from the tape.
So, let's start with Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams, who leads my upgrades for the week.
Upgrades for Week 15
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Take the matchup with Williams as an upside WR2 versus the Titans defense in Week 15. This past Sunday, in his first game back since Week 11 (ankle), Williams dropped 23.6 PPR points on the Dolphins, catching 6-of-6 targets for 116 yards with a red zone touchdown. We saw the vertical throws here from Justin Herbert, plus Williams' high-level ability to track the ball at the third level of the field. Against a zone-heavy Tennessee defense this Sunday, one that is allowing a league-most 41.9 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, Williams is an easy start for me.
Zonovan Knight, RB, New York Jets
In my home league, I roster Rhamondre Stevenson. But given his injury status (ankle), I went to the wire and added Knight as a potential starter in my lineup for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Even with Michael Carter back in the mix for the Jets last week, the run game usage remained consistent for Knight, who has now seen at least 14 carries (with double-digit PPR production) in each of his last three games. He's a downhill runner with straight line acceleration. And he plays through contact. That works in the Jets run scheme. Knight fits as a RB2/Flex depending on the depth of your league.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
We should expect Dobbins to share backfield touches with Gus Edwards this week versus the Browns. And I'm good with that given the juice I saw from Dobbins on the Week 14 tape in the win over Pittsburgh, plus the prime matchup here against the Cleveland defense. Dobbins, who played in his first game since Week 6 (knee), carried the ball 14 times for 120 yards, with a low red zone touchdown run. We saw the explosive play ability here from Dobbins, and the short-area burst to get through the second-level. In a game that could be very run-heavy for Baltimore, given the quarterback injuries, I like Dobbins as a solid Flex play.
Downgrades for Week 15
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Goff has been one of my top matchup based streamers at the quarterback position this season. And he's really playing good football right now. Two straight games of 21 or more fantasy points, and multiple touchdown throws in each of his last three starts. But the Week 15 matchup against the Jets defense isn't the one you want to play. New York will utilize schemed fronts to create pressure, with very disciplined and defined coverages in the secondary. Goff will be back in the mix as a potential streamer for the Week 16 game versus the Panthers.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I roster Evans in one league, and I'm still going to play him due to the upside he has as a fade ball/deep in-breaker target for Tom Brady. This limited Bucs pass game, however, has pushed Evans down to WR26 in my Week 15 rankings. Evans hasn't scored a touchdown since back in Week 4, and he's now posted three straight games of single-digit PPR production. Plus, the matchup versus the Bengals secondary is tough. Evans should be played as a flex option only here.
More notes from the tape
So, what did Chargers head coach Brandon Staley do with his defensive game plan to shut down Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Week 14? For starters, the Chargers didn't give Tyreek Hill consistent free access off the ball. Press-coverage. Re-routes. Cover 2 with a corner rolled up. That disrupted the timing of this Miami pass game, with linebackers or safeties lurking in the middle of the field, too. Let's see if the Bills borrow from Staley's script in the Week 15 game versus the Dolphins.
Dak Prescott made two big time throws in the game-winning drive versus Houston. Drive the ball on the corner route. Then come back and hit the seam. Cover 2 beaters there. Dak is my QB10 for the Week 15 matchup versus the Jaguars.
Kyle Shanahan put on a run game clinic versus the Tampa Bay defense last week. Heavily schemed concepts that allowed Christian McCaffrey to attack the perimeter or hit the downhill lanes on power schemes. McCaffrey is my RB1 in the rankings for the Thursday night game versus the Seahawks. You can start both Isiah Pacheco (RB2) and Jerick McKinnon (Flex) this week versus the Houston defense. It's a prime matchup for Pacheco to see downhill run game volume, with McKinnon being deployed as a dual-threat option given his deployment in the pass/screen game.
Keenan Allen is my WR7 this week. 28 targets in his last two games. And a matchup versus the Titans, where he can work the intermediate/underneath levels of the field. Find the zone windows.
Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton has posted double-digit PPR production in five of his last seven games. And he gets the Commanders on Sunday night. In their first meeting of the season (Week 13), Slayton caught 6-of-8 targets for 90 yards. He's the vertical stretch targets in this Giants pass game. Slayton has some WR3 upside this week in 12-14 team leagues.
Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore has 16 targets in his last two games. And he gets the Lions defense on Sunday. Streaming option here if you want to play the upside of Moore and the matchup.
I think the Eagles have the best QB designed run scheme in the league with Jalen Hurts. Power, counter. Perimeter runs. And the RPO package. Hurts is my QB1 this week versus the Bears.
Patriots rookie Pierre Strong Jr. flashed the traits that I saw on his college tape during the Monday night win over Arizona. He's an angular runner, a slasher with second-level speed and receiving skills. If Stevenson or Damien Harris are ruled out for the Week 15 game versus the Raiders, then the rookie will have fantasy value as potential Flex option.