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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Chargers WRs primed for big day in Week 15

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams face a Titans secondary in Week 15 that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

By using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defense schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can also help you make the best waiver wire pickups.

Here are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.


Advantageous matchups

Colts' Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce vs. Vikings' Cameron Dantzler, Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson

Minnesota has allowed the second-most fantasy points overall to wide receivers and to the perimeter this season (most in both categories over the last eight weeks). The Vikings have allowed the most receptions and yards to the position and surrendered a season-high 65.9 fantasy points to Lions WRs last week. This bodes well for Pittman and Pierce on the perimeter against Dantzler and Peterson, as well as for Campbell in the slot against Sullivan. We're always starting Pittman, but Campbell and Pierce are better flex plays/sleepers than usual.

Chargers' Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer vs. Titans' Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Tre Avery

The Titans have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the most points to the perimeter. They sit no better than third in receptions, yards and TDs (18) allowed to the position. Injuries have been a problem, with four corners on IR and Fulton and Avery both out in Week 14. Time will tell if either return this week, but it may not matter a ton considering the season-long struggles. Williams and Allen are back in full and, along with Palmer, combine to form one of the league's best WR trios. All three can be upgraded in this elite matchup.

Jets' Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis vs. Lions' Jeff Okudah, Will Harris and Jerry Jacobs

The Lions are starting to win games, but slowing the pass remains a problem. In Week 14, Okudah was limited by injury and slot corner Harris was out, which left the team with Jacobs, Mike Hughes and oft-benched Amani Oruwariye as it's top cornerback trio. Minnesota receivers responded with 67.6 fantasy points. The Lions have now allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the most to the slot. They've allowed the most in both categories over the last month. This week, Wilson and Davis (or Denzel Mims, if Davis is sidelined) will work the perimeter against Okudah, Jacobs and Oruwariye, with Moore manning the slot against Harris or Hughes. Upgrade the Jets' passing game.

Commanders' Terry McLaurin vs. Giants' Fabian Moreau (Shadow)

When these teams played in Week 13, Moreau shadowed McLaurin on 40 of his 43 routes, including all 36 on the boundary and four of six in the slot. It didn't go particularly well, with McLaurin posting an 8-105-1 receiving line on 12 targets. Both Jahan Dotson (5-54-1) and Curtis Samuel (6-63-0) also reached 12 fantasy points in the game. Perhaps New York will change strategy two weeks later, but it may not matter, as Moreau and fellow corners Nick McCloud, Cordale Flott and Darnay Holmes (among others) have struggled to slow receivers. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position and the eighth most to the perimeter over the last four weeks. Upgrade McLaurin and company.

Other notable upgrades

Ravens' Demarcus Robinson and DeSean Jackson vs. Browns' Martin Emerson Jr. and Denzel Ward

Cleveland has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the perimeter this season, which is where Robinson (94%) and Jackson (78%) align most often.

Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb vs. Jaguars' Tre Herndon (Slot)

The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the slot, which is where Lamb aligns 60% of the time.

Texans' Nico Collins, Chris Moore and Brandin Cooks vs. Chiefs' Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed and Joshua Williams

Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this season.

Eagles' A.J. Brown, Quez Watkins and DeVonta Smith vs. Bears' Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and Kindle Vildor

Chicago has allowed the second-most fantasy points over expected to wide receivers (most over the last eight weeks)


Tough matchups

Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II (Shadow)

Surtain has shadowed DK Metcalf, Davante Adams (x2), Mike Williams, Christian Kirk and DJ Moore full time on the perimeter this season, and also spent some time traveling with Brandon Aiyuk in Week 3. That usage suggest he'll cover Hopkins the 70% of the time he aligns out wide this week. Surtain has been one of the league's top corners this season, and Denver has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (sixth fewest to the perimeter). Hopkins should be downgraded. If Surtain does shadow Hopkins as anticipated, Marquise Brown will be in a good spot on the other side of the field against rookie Damarri Mathis (or, if Rondale Moore returns, in the slot) and can be upgraded.

Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Dolphins' Xavien Howard (Shadow)

Howard has shadowed when the matchup called for it this season, including perimeter showdowns with DeVante Parker, Rashod Bateman, Stefon Diggs, Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper and, most recently, Mike Williams. In the Week 3 game against Buffalo, Diggs posted a 7-74-0 line on 11 targets, with 5-62-0 on seven targets when covered by Howard. Howard also shadowed Diggs during each of the prior three meetings between these teams. Diggs receiving lines in those three games were as follows: 7-76-0 on eight targets (Week 17, 2020), 4-60-1 on eight targets (Week 2, 2021) and 5-40-1 on six targets (Week 8, 2021). Howard is a great corner and perhaps limited Diggs' ceiling a bit (max 16.0 points), but he obviously hasn't been able to shut him down completely. Perhaps we lower Diggs' expectations slightly, but he, of course, remains a fantasy must start. Whereas Miami has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to Howard's primary side of the field, it has surrendered the fourth most to the other side (currently Keion Crossen's home). Gabe Davis can be upgraded in the matchup with Crossen.

Lions' DJ Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

Over the last eight weeks, the Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (fewest over expected, as well), plus the second fewest to the perimeter and 12th-fewest to the slot. Since Week 4, only one WR (Jakobi Meyers) has reached 20 fantasy points against New York. Detroit perimeter receivers Chark (74%) and Reynolds (62%) should be avoided this week. St. Brown should be downgraded, but he aligns in the slot 56% of the time and will thus avoid Gardner and Reed over half the time, so he remains a fine fantasy start.

Vikings' Justin Jefferson vs. Colts' Stephon Gilmore (Shadow)

The Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the seventh fewest to the perimeter and second fewest to the slot. Top corner Gilmore has often been called on to shadow on the boundary, including a combined 122 of 134 perimeter routes (91%) run by Brandin Cooks, Travis Kelce, Courtland Sutton, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Terry McLaurin, A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb in those seven games. Jefferson has aligned on the perimeter 70% of the time this season and he can expect to see Gilmore on nearly all of those routes. Reduce expectations for Jefferson a bit and downgrade both Adam Thielen (vs. Isaiah Rodgers) and K.J. Osborn (vs. Kenny Moore II).

Saints' Chris Olave vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell (Shadow)

These teams faced off back in Week 1, and Terrell was called on to shadow Michael Thomas on a part-time basis. Atlanta's top corner has also shadowed other standout perimeter corners this season, including DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson. Thomas is, of course, out for the season, which has locked Olave in as New Orleans' No. 1 wideout. The rookie aligns out wide 68% of the time, so there's a good chance he'll see Terrell on most/all of those plays. Atlanta has struggled against wide receivers this season, but has been much better as of late, actually allowing the fewest fantasy points to receivers overall and to the perimeter over the last four weeks. That includes holding Washington and Pittsburgh WR rooms under 15 fantasy points during their last two games. Olave wasn't targeted on 10 routes against Terrell in the Week 1 meeting. The rookie should be downgraded slightly.

Other notable downgrades

Bears' Chase Claypool, Dante Pettis and Equanimeous St. Brown vs. Eagles' James Bradberry, Avonte Maddox and Darius Slay

The Eagles have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the fewest points to the perimeter.

Buccaneers' Julio Jones, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans vs. Bengals' Cam Taylor-Britt, Mike Hilton and Eli Apple

The Bengals have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points overall and to the perimeter this season.