For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things might change from when I write this until game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels up until kickoff on Sunday.
With a three-game Thanksgiving slate available on Thursday, I'll also give you a few picks specific to that day.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 12.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams: Mahomes has been on a ridiculous tear, scoring more than 30 DraftKings points in his past four games. On the season, Mahomes has totaled six games with three or more touchdown passes and is the only quarterback with more than four such games. 69.5% of the yards against the Rams' defense come through the air, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league and Kansas City ranks sixth in terms of offensive yards that come through the air themselves at 73.3%. I always love it when the puzzle pieces line up perfectly like that.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders: put bluntly, Smith has had a surprisingly fantastic season. But his price hasn't caught up on DraftKings sitting at only $6000 in Week 12. Geno is going to be one of the quarterbacks you should be considering for your cash game lineups this week because of the low price, playing in a friendly environment at home, and a matchup against the Raiders, who have the second-worst red zone defense in the league. They allow a touchdown on 71% of red zone drives.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans: Tua has really blossomed under coach Mike McDaniel's system and the addition of Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins' passing game. We all laughed in the summer when Hill spoke about how accurate a passer Tua was but looking back at just the past three games where Tagovailoa has thrown for three or more touchdowns and a 76.5% completion rate, it appears that Tyreek was telling us the truth. The easiest and most predictable double stack in daily fantasy this season has been Tua to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and nothing changes here in week 12.
Thanksgiving meal:
Josh Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: Detroit allows a league-high 3.3 offensive TDs per game and is allowing a league-high 6.4 yards per play.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: Jacobs has been fantastic this year despite the Raiders' inability to win. Seattle allows the third-most yards per running back target and Jacobs has seen three or more targets in eight straight games with three or more catches in seven of those eight. Davante Adams is stealing all the press based on his recent run and his Week 11 walk-off touchdown, so Jacobs could provide leverage off the people who want to ride the Davante hot streak in tournaments.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders: on the other side of that game, Walker is going to be a core player across the industry in both cash and tournaments. Opponents have completed 83.5% of targets to running backs against the Raiders and Walker has nine catches on 12 targets in his past two games. With massive volume since taking over the job after Rashaad Penny's injury, Walker has shown that he also has big-splash ability with multiple 60-plus-yard runs and ample work in the passing game. An easy five-box running back to target this week.
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans: We've been streaming running backs against the Houston Texans for the first 11 weeks of the season, so I feel no need to change what we do here in Week 12. Wilson seems to be the preferred running back ahead of Raheem Mostert and Miami is a 12-point favorite in this game against a Houston squad that has been tied with or trailing their opponent a league-high 89.7% of offensive snaps, which has led to even more volume by those opponents against an inefficient run-stopping defense.
James Conner ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers: The Cardinals have cleared the road for James Conner to go on a season-ending run with the same sort of volume he saw in the second half of the 2021 campaign. Both the Chargers and the Cardinals are two of the three fastest offenses in the league in terms of pace of play and the Chargers allow a league-high 5.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Five times this season a running back playing against the Chargers has hit the 100-yard bonus including 107 yards for Isiah Pacheco last Sunday night.
Thanksgiving meal: Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota allows the sixth-most yards per RB reception (8.1) as has been the worst red zone defense in the NFL (touchdown on 71.4% of drives).
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Hopkins has been a target magnet since returning from his six-game suspension logging 12 or more targets in four of the five games that he has played in 2022. Every single wide receiver who has gotten nine or more targets against the Chargers this season has scored a touchdown.
Joshua Palmer ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: Just when you thought the Chargers' wide receiver room was getting healthy once again with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returning to the field against the chiefs, Williams left that game with a reinjured ankle. Palmer has shown great progression as a player in a trial-by-fire situation this season and was targeted on a season-high 30.3% of his routes on Sunday night against the Chiefs. Arizona allows 3.8 red zone trips per game, the third-highest total in the league, and wide receiver has scored over 15.5 draft kings points against the Cardinals seven times this season.
Garrett Wilson ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears: The Jets seemed ready to make the switch from Zach Wilson back to Joe Flacco and while it is an extremely small sample in the three games that Garrett Wilson played this season with Joe Flacco as quarterback, he averaged 17.07 fantasy points as opposed to the 9.23 fantasy points he has averaged with Zach Wilson as the starter. The Bears have allowed 2.7 offensive touchdowns per game, the seventh most in the league and the Jets' coaching staff has once again been dialing up the downfield shots for Garrett Wilson from weeks 8 through 11, averaging 8.4 yards per target as opposed to 5.6 yards per target in weeks 4-7.
Skyy Moore & Justin Watson ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams: The Chiefs are struggling to get healthy on the outside with Juju Smith-Schuster still working his way back from a concussion suffered two weeks ago, Mecole Hardman out and Kadarius Toney leaving the last game with another injury to his hamstrings. Moore did a fantastic job earning six targets and catching five of them on his 14 routes last week. Watson ran a route on more than 30 of Mahomes' drop-backs in that game as well, and while not as high-profile a prospect as Moore, he most definitely has a job in this offense and both are in play at the stone minimum salary on DraftKings in Week 12.
Thanksgiving meal:
Gabe Davis ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: Detroit allows the sixth-best completion rate on deep balls (55.1%) and Davis' top five career games have seen him post an aDOT (average depth of target) of more than 15 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills: ARSB has seen 8 or more targets in 4 straight games and 70.4% of the Lions yards come through the air when trailing (58.7% otherwise), and they are 9.5-point underdogs this weekend.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams: Most weeks it's difficult to find a way to pay up for Kelce -- especially if you're trying to pair him with Mahomes -- and then still be able to fill out the rest of your lineup with something that looks minimally respectable. That's not the case this week as there is a ton of value in the wide receiver positions to allow for us to pay the premium to get the best tight end in fantasy, a real separator at the position especially for daily fantasy tournaments. The Rams allow the eighth-most yards per tight end reception in the league and Kelce has scored 20 PPR points and had seven or more targets in six games this season. He has five straight games with over 80 receiving yards and no other tight end has five such games this season.
Evan Engram ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens: Engram has run a route on 74.5% of Jaguars drawbacks, the third-highest rate at the position in the league, and Baltimore allows a touchdown on 8.5% of tight end targets. The Ravens are heavy favorites in this game, meaning that the Jaguars should be in more pass-heavy situations leading to possibly a very high target game for Engram at only $3200 on DraftKings.
Tyler Higbee ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs: In the absence of Cooper Kupp, Higbee has a guaranteed floor of targets much like he had early in the season when Van Jefferson was out. As the first or second option on many of the Rams' drop backs, Higbee brings a solid floor, especially considering that the Rams should be playing from behind as a 14.5-point underdog against the Chiefs. Three active tight ends have seen at least eight targets five or more times in a game this season: Kelce (8x), Higbee (6x) and Andrews (5x).
Thanksgiving meal:
Dalton Schultz ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants: The Giants allow the sixth-most yards per TE target (8.7) and Schultz has seen six red zone targets over the past two weeks with Dak Prescott back under center, after having only three such targets all season prior.
Defenses
Carolina Panthers ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel), vs. Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), at Los Angeles Rams
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.