It's defense day over at the Next Gen Advantage. If you're new here: in this spot each week we use advanced metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking data to find little edges for your fantasy team, prop betting or DFS plays.
We've spent much of this year looking at our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs), which use player tracking data to quantify receivers' ability to get open, contest and make the catch and generate YAC. But we also have team RTM Scores and team defensive RTM Scores.
That's what we're focusing on today, looking at team Defensive RTM scores to see which receivers have advantageous -- or disadvantageous -- matchups in Week 10. Plus, we'll look at some running backs vs. man and zone coverage. Let's dive in.
Defensive Receiver Tracking Metrics
Upgrade: Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool vs. Detroit Lions
Lions Defensive RTM Overall Score: 34 (T-31st)
Detroit's defense is bad all around -- unless they're playing Aaron Rodgers -- and their defensive Receiver Tracking Metrics suggest the Bears' newfound offensive success should continue. Look how much cushion they gave to A.J. Brown on this route earlier this year, allowing him to get easily open.
Mooney actually scores quite highly in Open Score with a 73; he just has suffered from a mediocre Catch Score (49) and a severely depressed passing volume in Chicago. But against a weaker secondary, Chicago may elect to throw more, and that could work to Mooney and Claypool's benefit.
Upgrade: D.J. Moore vs. Atlanta Falcons
Falcons Defensive RTM Ovreall Score: 37 (30th)
Atlanta's defense is already shaky. Atlanta's defense without A.J. Terrell? That's an opportunity for a fantasy feast -- even for the Panthers' offense. It remains to be seen if Terrell will play but he didn't last week and didn't participate in practice on Tuesday ahead of the Thursday night game, which isn't a great sign.
The Falcons have been poor in both Open Score (36) and Catch Score (37), which is what any fantasy manager rostering Moore will want to see.
For his part, Moore is struggling this season, as his 41 Open Score is a career low by a significant margin. Though he has had low Catch Scores before, his above average or better ability to get open previously made up for it.
Downgrade: Terry McLaurin at Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles Defensive RTM Overall Score: 74 (1st)
The Eagles are far and away the best defensive RTM team, with no other squad topping a 66.
And that seems unideal for McLaurin, whose 49 Open Score is merely average already. It does have me wondering: If you're going to face a tough defense, is it better to be a contested-catch specialist like McLaurin? It's possible, but we haven't studied that kind of interaction enough to know yet. Either way: it's safe to say McLaurin would be better off facing just about any other defense.
While we don't have RTMs for individual defenders, we can look at their nearest defender data from NFL Next Gen Stats. Among outside corners with at least 150 coverage snaps this season, James Bradberry and Darius Slay rank fourth and sixth, respectively, in yards per coverage snap allowed with 0.7 apiece.
One caveat here: the Eagles do have the third-lowest defensive YAC Score (46), which makes me think this might not be as bad a matchup for Curtis Samuel as I might have originally thought.
Downgrade: Robert Woods vs. Denver Broncos
Broncos Defensive RTM Overall Score: 66 (2nd)
Assuming Ryan Tannehill returns to action and the Titans return to their regular run-heavy offense instead of the extreme run-heavy offense with Malik Willis, fantasy managers in deeper leagues might give Woods a look to return to the lineup. I'd advise against.
The Broncos secondary, led by Pat Surtain II, has been quite remarkable this season with across the board strength in their Open Score / Catch Score / YAC Score triple-slash: 62/58/57.
Surtain has allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, third-best among outside corners with at least 150 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Running back receiving vs. man/zone
We've written a few times in recent weeks about the stark splits for running back reception rates vs. man and zone. Against man coverage, the 34 running backs with at least 100 routes this season have caught passes on 12% of routes, while that same group of backs has caught passes on 20% of routes against zone. Their yards per route run follows a similar pattern: 0.86 against man, 1.44 against zone.
In other words: zone coverage results in much, much more productivity for backs in the pass game. So who benefits in Week 10?
Upgrade: James Conner and Eno Benjamin at Los Angeles Rams
Rams zone coverage rate: 78% (1st)
Last week Leonard Fournette was in this spot and racked up 41 receiving yards on five receptions, beating both his receptions and receiving yards props.
Now it's Conner and Benjamin's turn to face the Rams zone-heavy defense that leads to running back receptions. Conner and Benjamin each average 17-18 routes per game, but Conner is the one who I think earns the larger boost here: He has run more routes in the games both backs have played and is coming off a five-reception performance, albeit only for 19 yards. Still, those extra receptions can help in PPR.
Upgrade: Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans
Texans zone coverage rate: 70% (2nd)
Barkley gets to face the Lovie Smith Cover-2, which should be a boost to his receiving production. The Giants running back's receiving numbers have been a little down: He hasn't exceeded 25 yards in each of his last three games, so it could be a nice time to buy.
Downgrade: Najee Harris vs. Saints
Saints zone coverage rate: 41% (32nd)
Even if we didn't know about the man/zone splits for running backs, we could see that the Saints limit receptions to opponent backs. While the league average reception rate for running backs is 16%, it's just 12% when facing the Saints. If that results in, say, one fewer reception for Harris this week than we'd otherwise expect, that's certainly meaningful from a betting standpoint.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player and every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.