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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Bears WRs primed to break out in Week 10

With Justin Fields emerging as a fantasy QB1, the Bears' wide receivers could break out against a struggling Lions secondary in Week 10. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each NFL wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders whom the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion because of bye weeks.


Advantageous matchups

Bills' Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Stefon Diggs vs. Vikings' Cameron Dantzler, Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson

The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (second most over expected) this season. Wideouts are averaging 9.4 yards per target against Minnesota, which is highest in the league. The Vikings have allowed the most points to the perimeter, which is where Davis (90%) and Diggs (60%) spend a substantial amount of time. The duo can be upgraded against Peterson and Dantzler (or rookie Akayleb Evans if Dantzler is out). We can also upgrade McKenzie, who will face off with Sullivan inside (Minnesota has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the slot).

Saints' Marquez Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave vs. Steelers' Levi Wallace, Cameron Sutton and Ahkello Witherspoon

Michael Thomas is likely done for the season, but Landry could return this week in a pristine matchup against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the second most to the perimeter and fourth most to the slot. The latter affects Landry most, as he has aligned inside on 81% of his routes this season. He can be upgraded against Sutton (or Art Maulet if Wallace remains out). Olave (and Callaway) will work against some combination of Witherspoon, Wallace and Sutton on the perimeter and can be upgraded.

Bears' Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown vs. Lions' Jeff Okudah, AJ Parker and Jerry Jacobs

Detroit has had its ups and downs against wide receivers this season, but at the end of the day, this is a defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, as well as eight TDs and the second-highest yards per target (9.4). Detroit sits top-10 in fantasy points allowed to both the perimeter and slot, which is notable against a Chicago team that moves its receivers around. Okudah is the top perimeter corner for Detroit, but it's a mess behind him after Amani Oruwariye was benched for the second time this season. The likes of Jacobs and Mike Hughes figure to get run outside, which means primary matchups with Claypool (12 of 15 routes run from the perimeter in his Chicago debut) and St. Brown. Parker is the top slot man for Detroit, but he was out last week with a hip injury and was replaced by Will Harris. Mooney (58% slot) will get most of his running against Parker or Harris. Upgrade Chicago's receivers across the board.

Other notable upgrades:

Broncos' Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler vs. Titans' Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Terrance Mitchell

The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers (most over expected), as well as the seventh most to the perimeter.

Jaguars' Christian Kirk vs. Chiefs' L'Jarius Sneed (slot)

The Chiefs have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the slot.

Chargers' DeAndre Carter vs. 49ers' Deommodore Lenoir (slot)

San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the slot, including the most over the past eight weeks.

Tough matchups

Texans' Brandin Cooks vs. Giants' Adoree' Jackson (shadow)

Jackson has shadowed in four games this season, including showdowns with Robert Woods, Robbie Anderson, CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Lockett. He aligned against those four receivers on a combined 70 of their 76 perimeter routes (92%). Cooks has aligned on the perimeter on 76% of his routes this season, so it's a good bet that he'll see Jackson on nearly all of those plays this week. Jackson has played well and the Giants are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to his primary side of the field. New York has also allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs (third fewest over expected) overall this season. Cooks should be downgraded, and Nico Collins (if back from injury) can be considered a sleeper on the other side of the field.

Rams' Cooper Kupp vs. Cardinals' Byron Murphy Jr. (perimeter shadow)

When these teams met in Week 3, Murphy shadowed Kupp on all seven of his perimeter routes but zero of his 18 slot routes. Murphy has also shadowed Davante Adams (2-12-1 receiving line on seven targets in the game), Justin Jefferson (6-98-0 on eight targets) and DK Metcalf (5-37-1 on six targets) this season, so we can expect similar deployment to the first game here in Week 10. That's notable, because the Cardinals did a nice job containing Kupp, holding him to a 4-44-0 line on six targets. Despite the dud in the first game, Kupp is borderline matchup-proof, so we don't really need to adjust expectations much here other than to perhaps go another direction in DFS.

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Colts' Stephon Gilmore (shadow)

The Colts have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the fewest to the perimeter. When they've faced a standout boundary receiver, Gilmore has been called on to shadow. That includes 15 of Brandin Cooks' 21 perimeter routes in Week 1, all 37 of Courtland Sutton's boundary routes in Week 5 and all 21 of Terry McLaurin's perimeter routes in Week 8. He also covered Travis Kelce on all six of his perimeter routes in Week 3 and shadowed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in Week 7. Gilmore has played well, but Tyson Campbell was also playing well prior to Adams putting up a 10-146-2 receiving line on 17 targets just last week. Gilmore and the Colts' defense might limit Adams' ceiling a bit, but Derek Carr's top target remains a strong fantasy option.

Commanders' Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles' Darius Slay (shadow)
Commanders' Curtis Samuel vs. Eagles' Avonte Maddox (slot)
Commanders' Cam Sims vs. Eagles' James Bradberry

Slay has shadowed McLaurin in all five games since joining the Eagles in 2020. McLaurin's lines in those games were as follows: 5-61-0 on seven targets (Week 1, 2020), 7-40-1 on eight targets (Week 17, 2020), 2-51-0 on four targets (Week 15, 2021), 7-61-0 on seven targets (Week 17, 2021), and 6-102-0 on nine targets (Week 3, 2022). Slay has done a respectable job overall, though McLaurin obviously showed up with a good fantasy day earlier this season. We should expect these two to face off again this week, which will position Samuel against Maddox in the slot and Sims (assuming Jahan Dotson isn't back) against Bradberry. All three receivers should be downgraded against a defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points over expected to receivers, as well as the third-fewest points to the perimeter

Browns' Amari Cooper vs. Dolphins' Xavien Howard (shadow)

So far this season, Howard has shadowed DeVante Parker (1-9-0 receiving line in the game), Rashod Bateman (4-108-1), Stefon Diggs (7-74-0), Tee Higgins (7-124-1) and Justin Jefferson (6-107-0). He hasn't shadowed since Week 6, though that wasn't overly surprising against the Lions and Bears (somewhat surprising against the Steelers). Miami has been better against wide receivers as of late, but as the above stat lines show, Howard hasn't been as dominant as we're used to. Cooper could see Howard on upward of 75% of his routes, so we should temper expectations a bit against one of the league's top CB talents, but he remains a solid fantasy starter.

Other notable downgrades

Cowboys' Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown vs. Packers' Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes

Green Bay has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, showing well against both the perimeter and slot.

Titans' Cody Hollister, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods vs. Broncos' Patrick Surtain II, K'Waun Williams and Damarri Mathis

The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the sixth fewest to the perimeter and fourth fewest to the slot.

Giants' Marcus Johnson, Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton vs. Texans' Derek Stingley Jr., Desmond King and Steven Nelson

Having faced little WR pass volume (second-fewest targets), Houston has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest receptions and only three TDs to wide receivers this season.

Seahawks' DK Metcalf vs. Buccaneers' Jamel Dean

Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest fantasy points to left perimeter receivers this season, which is where Metcalf has aligned on 60% of his routes.

Other notables

Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins vs. Rams' Jalen Ramsey

Some might assume that Ramsey will shadow Hopkins this week, but I suspect it won't be full time. Ramsey has traveled here or there this season but never on an every-down basis. A great example of this was just last week. Ramsey aligned opposite Mike Evans on 24 of his 34 coverage snaps, but he wasn't always lined up at corner, so he was up against Evans on only 24 of the Tampa Bay receiver's 52 routes. These teams played three times in 2021, but Ramsey and Hopkins were both active in one of them. In that Week 4 game, Ramsey manned the slot, aligning on Hopkins on only eight plays. Ramsey aligned on Hopkins' primary side of the field on a majority of plays in both 2020 meetings, but that was when Hopkins was simply aligning at left perimeter receiver on nearly every single play. Arizona has moved him around more this season (31% slot). The Rams have been better against wide receivers as of late, but the perimeter remains problematic, as they've surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to boundary receivers (sixth most over the past month). Hopkins was out when these teams played in Week 3, and Ramsey did not shadow Marquise Brown, who posted a 14-140-0 receiving line on 18 targets. Ramsey will be on Hopkins enough that we can lower expectations a little, but Hopkins remains a fine fantasy start.

Panthers' DJ Moore vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell (shadow)

Terrell has been out since Week 8 with a hamstring, so while he's uncertain for Week 10, he's a candidate to travel with Moore if active. Terrell has shadowed either full or part time in all seven games he appeared in this season. That includes part time against Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp and Brandon Aiyuk and on nearly all perimeter routes against DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans and Ja'Marr Chase. Terrell has been decent in coverage (297 yards on 40 targets) but has allowed six TDs, which have led to a hefty 90.7 fantasy points. The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers and sit top-five in points allowed to the perimeter and slot. Even if Terrell is active, Moore's value doesn't need to be adjusted. If Terrell is out, Moore and running mate Terrace Marshall Jr. can be upgraded.

Steelers' Diontae Johnson vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (shadow)

Prior to missing the Saints' past four games with an abdomen issue, Lattimore shadowed Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson, though he did not travel with DJ Moore or DK Metcalf. It's unclear if Lattimore will return for Week 10, but even if he does, (a) his aforementioned usage suggests it's not a lock that he'll shadow Johnson, and (b) it might not matter, as Jefferson didn't have much trouble in Week 4 (10-147-0 receiving line on 13 targets), nor did Metcalf (5-88-1) and Tyler Lockett (5-104-2) against New Orleans in Week 5. In fact, the Saints have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season (Johnson has aligned out wide 90% of the time). Utilize Johnson (and George Pickens -- 89% perimeter) as you normally would.