Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
It's Week 10 in the NFL, so let's get on the tape and identify the players to upgrade or downgrade in your lineups based on the matchups. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is in here. He was driving the ball last week. A couple pass-catchers who have WR3/flex value in my rankings, too. And as always, we'll hit on some players to monitor, plus run through my notes from the tape.
Week 10 upgrades
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I'm looking at Lawrence's recent tape, plus the Week 10 matchup against a Chiefs defense allowing 19.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (eighth most in the NFL). Lawrence was pretty dialed in during the Week 9 game against Las Vegas. Decisive with the ball, seeing it fast, pocket movement and more. There's some big-time throws on the tape. The Jags quarterback completed 25 of 31 passes in the win over the Raiders, and he added another 53 yards rushing (on six carries). While we need to see more touchdown production from Lawrence as a thrower, he has scored at least 16 fantasy points in three of his last four starts. He's a QB1 for me in the Week 10 rankings, especially for managers who roster Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow (bye weeks).
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
It's been a while since we wrote about Mooney here, but we are seeing some steady target volume for the wide receiver in a Chicago pass game that is building some juice with quarterback Justin Fields. With 17.5 PPR points in Week 9 versus Miami, Mooney has now logged double-dight PPR production in three of his last four games, catching 21 of 29 targets during that stretch. The Bears schemed his matchup on the touchdown last week to beat the Dolphins' man coverage, a slot fade with a lot of open grass to work with. And the Bears will get more man coverage on Sunday versus the Lions. Throw the verticals, crossers and get the ball out quick on wide receiver screens. And remember, Mooney lit up the Lions in 2021 with two games of more than 100 yards receiving. He fits as a WR3 for both PPR and non-PPR formats.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
A high-floor play this week, Moore has logged at least six receptions in four of his last five games. The volume is there, and so is the short-to-intermediate route tree. Moore will get looks versus a Rams defense that plays more zone coverage than any unit in the league (77.5% of opponent dropbacks). Speed outs from the slot. Sit routes. Schemed Hi-Lo concepts to work the open areas of the field versus Cover 3 and quarters. Get the ball out and attack space. Moore has WR3 value here with the PPR upside.
Week 10 downgrades
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
I'm starting Dak in my big home league this week, and I need a win. Plus, the last time we saw him (in Week 8), his tape was really good. Efficient passing, the QB run game in the red zone, and attacking the edges on boot. This is about the matchup for me, however, against a Packers defense that ranks fifth overall in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (12.3 per game). And I really struggled to rank Prescott this week, which left him as a fringe QB1. I think we need to temper expectations here just a bit on Sunday.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Mostert can play in Mike McDaniel's system. And I've said that here given the run game setup in Miami, plus Mostert's offensive deployment as a receiver. With the arrival of Jeff Wilson Jr., however, Mostert is sliding in my ranks. Mostert, who saw at least 14 carries each game from Weeks 4-8, split touches with Wilson last Sunday in Chicago (nine carries each). And Wilson was more productive on the ground, while also catching a touchdown on a schemed throw in the red zone. Now, you can still roll with Mostert as a potential flex, but given the Dolphins' expected backfield rotation versus the Browns on Sunday, he's out of the RB2 discussion for me. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Wilson get more run here based on the tape.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
The target volume is still up for Johnson. He's seen 39 targets in his last four games. But during that stretch, Johnson has failed to catch more than five passes in a game, with just one week of double-digit PPR production. Johnson, who has yet to find the end zone this season, checks in at WR24 for me this week. Yes, you can still play him in PPR formats and bet on the anticipated volume, but I don't love the matchup versus the Saints, who will pressure rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Players to monitor in Week 10
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks
The former Hawkeye posted his best numbers of the season in Week 9, logging five receptions for 96 yards, which included an explosive play on a boot scheme late in the fourth quarter. And the Seahawks are using more multiple tight end personnel. With only two games this season with five or more receptions, however, Fant remains a matchup-based streaming option for me until we see more consistent fantasy production.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Playing limited snaps in his first game with the Chiefs, Toney caught both of his targets for a total of 12 yards. But with his sudden movement ability, and ball-carrier vision, expect his role to develop quickly in Andy Reid's system. He'll be schemed based on alignment and matchup -- and stretch defenses horizontally.
More notes from the tape
• Bears quarterback Justin Fields is a difference-maker with the ball in his hands. Fields has logged 57 rushing attempts in his last five games, and Chicago is scheming the pass game for him, too. More movement concepts, boot and play-action. He's my QB4 this week in the matchup versus the Lions.
• I have Aaron Rodgers as my QB20 this week. That's the lowest weekly spot I've given to him in more than five years of ranking players at ESPN. Rodgers gets the Cowboys in Week 10.
• Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has logged 29 receptions in his last three games. And opposing defenses still don't have an answer for LA's "boot hot" scheme in the low red zone, with Ekeler bursting to the flat.
• Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert posted a season-high 24.0 PPR points in the Week 9 win over the Texans. And it wasn't complicated. Philly isolated Goedert on the backside of the formation to attack the Texans' Cover 2 schemes, and then set him up on a staple red zone concept to beat man coverage for a score.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster's ability (and willingness) to work the dirty areas of the field is a boost for his fantasy profile. The Chiefs wide receiver caught 10 of 12 targets in Week 9. He plays with a physical element in the route tree.
• Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III has produced seven touchdown runs in his last five games. A rookie with veteran ball-carrier traits, Walker is the fourth quarter "closer" for this Seattle offense.
• You can't sit in soft, zone coverage versus Tom Brady in a two-minute drill. That was stealing for the veteran quarterback on the game-winning drive versus the Rams in Week 9. And the late-game numbers pushed his fantasy total to 15.2 points for the day. Brady is a fringe QB1 for me this Sunday against Seattle.
• I would give Panthers wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. a look in deeper leagues this week versus Atlanta. Marshall has seen 15 targets in his last two games, with seven grabs and a score.
• Bears tight end Cole Kmet has caught three touchdown passes in his last two games, all on play-action throws in the red zone. He's a streaming option this week versus the Lions.
• T.J. Hockenson caught nine passes (on nine targets) for 70 yards in his first game with the Vikings. The Minnesota offensive scheme is an upgrade for Hockenson's fantasy potential.
• Travis Etienne Jr. has now recorded three straight games with at least 100 rushing yards. He's a feature back who can handle volume. Etienne is my RB5 for the Week 10 game against the Chiefs.