For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things may change between this posting and game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 7.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: Contrary to popular belief, both the Browns and the Ravens are up-pace teams, with the Ravens being one of the teams with the heaviest pass-rate over expectation in the league. Cleveland is allowing a league-high 4.0 red zone drives per game, so scoring opportunity should be high for the Ravens offense. With so many other premium quarterbacks either being off the slate or on a bye this week, Jackson presents the best run/pass combo option for us to use in Week 7.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions: The Cowboys got just as much as they could get out of Cooper Rush while Prescott was out, but in Week 7, he finally makes his return. The Lions have the worst third-down defense in the league and have given up the fifth-highest yards per deep pass against -- on top of allowing 27-plus points on the NFL scoreboard in every single game this year. The Cowboys offense should operate more efficiently with Prescott back under center and I believe this game is one of the more likely high-scoring affairs on the main slate.
Tom Brady ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: How many times have you played a game of poker and folded two cards that completely missed the flop, only to then get the exact flop you needed one hand too late? In poker, we call that flop lag, which is what I'm banking on with Brady this week, following a horrific Week 6 performance against the Steelers. Quarterbacks have completed a league-high 55.6% of passes against Carolina when throwing into the end zone, with the NFL average being only 32.1%. Brady is sporting a TD percentage of just over 3% of his passes, which is terrifyingly low for such a talented quarterback. This is something that could easily right itself this week against Carolina.
Also interested in
Derek Carr ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans: Carr has thrown multiple TD passes in four out of the Raiders' five games this season. With a career high aDOT of 8.2 yards, Carr is well-matched for a Houston defense allowing the sixth-most deep completions per game.
Running backs
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks: You could argue that Ekeler has faced an extremely friendly schedule in terms of RB defense. Well, that's not going to change here in Week 7. The Seahawks are allowing 165.8 rushing yards per game on 32.8 carries, both of which rank second-highest in the league. Ekeler has produced either a rushing touchdown or at least eight catches in each of his last five games. He comes into this week with a tremendous floor/ceiling combo with a palatable price on DraftKings. That said, he feels too expensive to play on FanDuel.
Joe Mixon ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons: He's everybody's favorite regression candidate, but Mixon gets an outstanding matchup against the Falcons here in Week 7. The Bengals moved to a more shotgun-heavy approach in Week 6, and I'm hoping that they stick with that game plan moving forward. That should be their identity, given their current roster build on offense. A change like that actually benefits Mixon since, over the last two games, he's averaged 6.2 yards per carry in plays that originated with Joe Burrow in shotgun formation.
Also interested in
Josh Jacobs ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans: With the Raiders coming off of their bye for a matchup against the Texans, it's absurd that Jacobs' price is only $6,500 on DraftKings. The bottom line is that Jacobs will be one of the most popular cash-game plays in Week 7. It remains to be seen whether we should fade him in tournaments or if he'll be good chalk, like the high-rostered running backs have been over the last couple of weeks. The Raiders are at home and favored, both being factors that historically weigh in Jacobs' favor. Plus, 39.8% of all yards against the Texans have come on the ground.
Wide receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: I have a feeling that this game is going to be extremely popular, as some of the pass-catchers in this contest are underpriced. St. Brown happens to be one of them. The Lions are coming off of a bye, so St. Brown has had plenty of time to heal his dinged ankle. He now gets to run against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed No. 1 receivers in 3-WR sets to average over 65 yards and a touchdown against their otherwise tough defense. Dallas has also allowed the fourth-highest opponent red zone completion rate (62.5%, compared to the NFL average of 52.9%). In the three weeks in which he was fully healthy, St. Brown totaled 23 catches -- fourth-most in the NFL over that stretch.
Mike Evans ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: Evans is my favorite tournament pivot at wide receiver this week, with all the attention being paid to wide receivers costing between $5,000-6,000 on DraftKings (and very specifically Chris Godwin). Godwin is going to be on more teams because of the lower price point, but Evans is one of the most prolific TD scorers in fantasy football. If we're going to be playing Brady this weekend in the hopes that he bounces back from last week's performance, Evans is the highest percentage play on this roster for multiple touchdowns.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions: Lamb is still priced as though Rush is going to be his quarterback, and should be easily $500-700 higher on DraftKings. The Lions are allowing opposing wide receivers an 11.6-yard aDOT, the fifth-highest number in the league. This is on top of Detroit allowing a league-high 6.5 yards per play. Lamb's volume never waned under Rush, although it was predictably less efficient than in games where Prescott played. This week, we should see sustained volume with greater efficiency -- and better fantasy output -- all for only $6,600 on DraftKings.
Also interested in
Alec Pierce ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Pierce is quietly putting together an extremely solid DFS season. Tennessee has faced 6.6 red zone passes per game, the fifth-highest total in the league. In addition to the TD upside that Pierce brings, he has seen five-plus targets in each of his last four games. He's now scored 12-plus DraftKings points in each of his last three games. While it's entirely possible that more value will open up on the slate over the course of the week as more injuries come to light, Pierce is a screaming value at $4,600 on DraftKings.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: Stop talking yourself out of paying up for Andrews at tight end! Andrews is leading the league -- not just his position, but the entire league -- with a 33.1% market share of his team's targets. With at least 89 receiving yards and a touchdown in four of his last five games, Andrews is an absolute separator at a position where, more often than not, you're extremely excited to get 10-11 points out of your tight end.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants: It's starting to feel like I'm talking about Engram every week. So, why change something that's been working so far? I absolutely love the way the Jaguars have been deploying Engram compared to his deployment in previous seasons with the Giants. Engram is a top-10 TE in percentage of team targets, catches, and receiving yards. He has also seen end zone targets in three of the last four weeks. Only five tight ends have had at least five in both of the last two weeks -- Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz... and Engram.
Also interested in
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos are two possibly great punt plays at the absolute minimum salary, but both are dependent on the if/then statements regarding the availability of the other tight ends on their teams. Watch the status reports headed into kickoff.
Defenses
Tennessee Titans ($3000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel), vs Colts
New York Jets ($2,600 DraftKings,$4,300 FanDuel), at Broncos
Green Bay Packers ($3,400 DraftKings,$4,500 FanDuel), at Commanders
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.