Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
It's Week 7 of the NFL season. And, at this time of the year, we have a much better feel for offensive tendencies and player deployment. So, what is the tape telling us this week on the players to upgrade and downgrade in your fantasy lineups? And who should we keep an eye out for on Sunday?
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is in here. He's an upgrade for me versus the Washington Commanders' defense. A couple of running backs, too. And I'm down on some receivers this week who are not producing volume numbers.
Upgrades for Week 7
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
The Week 6 tape on Rodgers and this Green Bay pass game isn't great. But I'm buying the veteran here in the Sunday matchup versus a Washington defense allowing 7.71 yards per attempt, plus an average of 19.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers, who is still the league's best at identifying and throwing the one-on-ones, will have opportunities to target Allen Lazard against this Commanders secondary. Outside verts and slot fades here. Tight end Robert Tonyan saw a bump in volume last week, too. Look for unders and seam balls when Washington jumps into its zone shells. And let's remember, Rodgers threw two touchdowns per game Weeks 2 through 5. He's my QB11 this week in the rankings, and I would start him based on the matchup.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne has posted double-digit PPR points in three of the past four weeks, averaging 12.3 touches per game in that span. And we can all see the juice he plays with, right? Explosive in the run game, with pass-catching upside in Doug Pederson's offense. With James Robinson still seeing touches in the Jags' backfield, we have to temper our expectations here. But given the Giants' run defense, plus Pederson's ability to scheme Etienne as a pass-catcher, I like the second-year man as a strong flex play in Week 7.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
The lack of receiving targets -- in a Washington backfield shared with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic -- lowers the PPR ceiling of Robinson. In non-PPR formats, however, I see the rookie this week as a flex/RB2 option versus a Green Bay defense struggling against both zone and gap run schemes. Entering Week 7, the Packers are allowing 4.89 yards per carry and have surrendered seven rushing scores on the season. Robinson saw 17 carries in the Week 6 win over Chicago, with a touchdown on a goal-line rush. He's a decisive runner who can hammer the ball between the tackles, with enough lateral juice to slip defenders at the linebacker level. And he has the physical makeup of an early-down volume runner in this Washington offense.
Downgrades for Week 7
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Fields has now logged back-to-back games with at least 17 fantasy points. We are seeing more deep throws. And his physical traits as a runner -- on second-reaction plays -- are boosting his overall fantasy profile. But I pushed Fields down in the ranks this week thanks to the matchup against a Patriots defense that is playing really good football. Over the past two weeks, New England has produced six takeaways, six sacks and a defensive score. I fully expect Bill Belichick to scheme pressure against the Bears' subpar offensive front, muddy the coverage looks for Fields and use dedicated doubles (or brackets) to limit wide receiver Darnell Mooney. Fields' ability to create outside of structure could keep him up in 2QB formats, but I wouldn't start him in standard leagues.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Jeudy has seen pretty good volume over the past two weeks, with 15 targets from Russell Wilson. Unfortunately, Jeudy has logged just six receptions during that stretch, and he has posted double-digit PPR points in only two games this season. I was big on Jeudy this summer, too. He has the traits to get open and create explosive plays. But given the lack of rhythm and structure right now in this Denver pass game, I have Jeudy ranked as my WR37 for the matchup versus a fast and physical Jets defense.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
I want to play London this week in one of my home leagues, but I don't love the matchup with the Bengals' defense, and the production has really dipped for the rookie wideout. In the past three weeks, London has failed to post more than eight PPR points in a single game, and he has logged just nine receptions over that stretch. With Atlanta's ball-control approach, which has severely limited the throwing volume for quarterback Marcus Mariota, London is a marginal flex play for me this week.
Players to monitor in Week 7
Tyquan Thornton, WR, New England Patriots
With some injuries in the Patriots' wide receiver room, the rookie saw an increase in touches (seven) and dropped 21.3 PPR points on the Browns in Week 6. We know about the vertical element he brings to the offense. Big-time speed there. And the Patriots did expand his role this past Sunday, as Thornton saw three carries, including a touchdown run on a fly sweep. Let's see how Thornton is deployed against the Bears on Monday night and whether the total volume stays consistent.
Daniel Bellinger, TE, New York Giants
Bellinger's 14.8 PPR points in Week 6, plus his usage on play-action and boot in the Giants' offense, makes the tight end a potential streaming option for the Week 7 game versus the Jags. But I'm not there just yet. Even with Bellinger logging five receptions Sunday, I want to see whether he can become a consistent target for quarterback Daniel Jones, which includes more red zone volume.
More notes from the tape
• The Eagles' RPO concepts are creating fantasy scoring opportunities for quarterback Jalen Hurts. In the Week 6 win over the Cowboys, Hurts threw two touchdowns on RPOs -- to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Eagles schemed up man coverage there. Philadelphia is on a bye this week but will host the Steelers in Week 8.
• Kenneth Walker III has all the traits of a lead back in the NFL. And he gets the Chargers' run defense this week. He's my RB11.
• Ezekiel Elliott posted a season-high 15.6 PPR points in Week 6 versus the Eagles. He looked quicker, too. He's a solid RB2 this week given the matchup against the Lions' run defense.
• Did I miss on my season projections for Packers running back AJ Dillon? Maybe. He has posted double-digit PPR numbers in only one game this season (back in Week 1). That run game needs to get going if Green Bay is going to make a push. And Dillon needs to see the ball in the low red zone (only one touchdown run this season).
• The Colts went to work on the middle of the field versus the Jags with a bunch of in-breaking concepts for Michael Pittman Jr. Crossers to beat man, play-action with the dig route and the high/low level schemes to attack open voids. Pittman, who caught 13 of 16 targets in that game, is my WR9 this week in his matchup versus the Titans.
• Jets rookie Breece Hall has now posted back-to-back games of at least 20 PPR points. I'd like to see more usage for Hall in the pass game given his formation flexibility, but he's in the RB1 mix for the Week 7 game against the Broncos.
• Did you see Rhamondre Stevenson's 31-yard touchdown run versus the Browns? Split-flow zone scheme -- on third-and-10. That's the big-play ability he brings to the Patriots' run game.
• Joe Burrow's touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase on the skinny post was one of the best throws of Week 6. Timing and location to beat single-high coverage.
• Can we get more isolation targets to Kyle Pitts in the red zone? His touchdown reception last week (his first of the season) was a layup throw for Mariota. When Pitts aligns as the backside X -- and the Falcons use run action to open up a window -- the slant route will be there.
• Jags tight end Evan Engram has caught 11 of 16 targets in his past two games. He's my TE13 this week against his former team.
• Tua Tagovailoa is scheduled to return to action this week, and I like the matchup for the Dolphins quarterback versus the Steelers on Sunday night. Throw the quicks, skinnys, crossers and screens. Tua is my QB8 in Week 7.