Making those tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which of them to start, my advice is to start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense has held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight
Matt Ryan, Colts (at Titans): As a trio of surefire-starter quarterbacks are on bye during Week 7 (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins), many fantasy managers will be resorting to their backups or to the waiver wire, but at least it's a good week to do that, with three of the five toughest defenses against quarterbacks also on bye. Ryan is one of the better plug-ins, having set a franchise record with 42 completions in Week 6, and again likely to be burdened with leading the Colts' offense while their top three running backs, Jonathan Taylor (ankle), Nyheim Hines (concussion) and Deon Jackson (quadriceps), all nurse injuries that threaten their status. Ryan delivered a respectable 17.84 fantasy points, his second-best total of 2022 behind last week's 27.16, in these teams' Week 4 meeting, and the Titans have afforded the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.55) for the full year.
Others to like
Aaron Rodgers (Packers, at Commanders) might have fallen considerably short of expectations thus far, but a matchup with a Commanders defense that has allowed the second-most points per pass (0.54) presents a recipe for rebound. ... Dak Prescott (Cowboys, versus Lions) is trending towards returning from his thumb injury in Week 7, and regardless of any rust concerns, he's worth immediate activation facing a Lions defense that made Carson Wentz (27.78 fantasy points, Week 2) and Geno Smith (31.70, Week 4) look like superstars.
Matchup to avoid
Jared Goff, Lions (at Cowboys): On the plus side, he has a bye week's rest, and his more-potent-than-expected Lions offense should therefore be healthier and closer to its 140-points-through-four-weeks form. The minus, however, is that Goff and the Lions must tangle with a Cowboys defense that has held each of its six quarterback opponents beneath 17 points -- and that's saying something considering the Cowboys have already faced Tom Brady (Week 1), Joe Burrow (Week 2), Matthew Stafford (Week 5) and Jalen Hurts (Week 6). The Cowboys pressure quarterbacks better than anyone in the league, and those were the situations in which Goff especially struggled in Week 5, as he completed only one pass on 12 action plays when pressured by the Patriots, resulting in a 5.86 fantasy point score. Incidentally, for those curious about quarterback performances coming off the bye, starters averaged 0.78 points beneath their seasonal averages in 2021, while 17-of-32 managed a point total that exceeded said average. There's really nothing there.
Running backs
Matchups highlight
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (at Chargers): In his first game as the Seahawks' go-to running back following Rashaad Penny (fibula) was lost for the season, Walker delivered a solid, 21-carry, 19.0 PPR fantasy point performance highlighted by four runs of 10-plus yards (tied for second-most for the week) and six that Next Gen Stats clocked 15-plus mph (again tied for second) in Week 6. While he's not much of a receiver, he's aligned to do plenty of damage again on the ground, this time against a Chargers defense that has already served up 100-yard rushing games to James Robinson (Week 3), Dameon Pierce (Week 4) and Nick Chubb (Week 5), all of whom scored 20-plus PPR fantasy points in those games.
Others to like
J.K. Dobbins (Ravens, versus Browns) disappointed in a big way in Week 6, and in fact was clearly outplayed by Kenyan Drake, but the Browns represent a much more favorable, and bounce back-worthy, matchup than did the Giants. ... Whether Damien Harris (hamstring) is ready to return or not, Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots, versus Bears) should see enough work to capitalize again upon a matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth-most PPR fantasy points per game to running backs the past five weeks (28.0).
Matchup to avoid
David Montgomery, Bears (at Patriots): Despite his Bears being 2-4 while outscored by 25 points through six weeks, Montgomery continues to see a hefty workload, as the team's 58.8% run rate is easily the league's largest. That said, his 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game ranks 31st at the position (minimum 50 touches), a continuing reminder that the Bears are too one-dimensional, and putting him in a tough spot for this week. The Patriots have been the toughest defense against running backs so far this season, posting minus-5.4 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added while affording the position 0.43 fantasy points per carry through six weeks, both of those lowest in the league. More to the point, Bill Belichick's defense was excellent previously against a pair of teams similarly centered around one running back, holding Najee Harris to 13.9 PPR fantasy points and his Steelers 14 points on the scoreboard in Week 2, and Nick Chubb to 8.0 PPR fantasy points and his Browns to 15 points in Week 6.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight
Allen Lazard, Packers (at Commanders): Through six weeks, 10 different wide receivers have scored double-digit PPR fantasy points against the Commanders, tied for second-most in the league. Much of that has resulted from the poor play of cornerbacks Kendall Fuller, whose 22.8 Targeted EPA per Next Gen Stats is second-worst in the league, and William Jackson III (5.9 Targeted EPA), which bodes well for a largely perimeter receiver like Lazard, considering those two corners typically man the outside. Just in Week 6, the Bears, an extremely run-heavy offense, squeezed 18.4 PPR fantasy points from Dante Pettis and 13.8 from Darnell Mooney against this defense. Aaron Rodgers' offense presents a considerably tougher challenge, and after the loss of Randall Cobb (ankle) for multiple weeks, Lazard should step up as Rodgers' go-to target, giving him a top-15 wide receiver's ceiling.
Others to like
Romeo Doubs (Packers, at Commanders) shapes up similarly well to Lazard, and his 18.2% seasonal target share compared to Lazard's 16.3% (though Lazard has 6-5 red zone and 3-1 end zone target advantages) makes him an attractive PPR-angled matchup play. ... DeAndre Hopkins' (Cardinals, versus Saints) 2022 debut comes against a defense sans star cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdominal), one that has struggled mightily in coverage aside from Lattimore, affording 27.4-plus PPR fantasy point performances to wide receivers in each of the past three weeks. ... Alec Pierce (Colts, at Titans) has averaged 7.3 targets and 14.0 PPR fantasy points the past three weeks, and he'll be facing a Titans defense that has allowed by far the most points per target to wide receivers (2.20).
Matchup to avoid
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (versus Jets): Russell Wilson might be looking in Sutton's direction often, as the receiver's 25.9% seasonal target share ranks 17th in the league, but the quarterback's struggles to date have nevertheless capped Sutton's production. He's the WR19 thus far (80.6 PPR fantasy points), is coming off an awful, 3.4-points-on-three-targets Week 6 facing an above-average matchup, and now gets a much tougher assignment against a strong-starting Jets defense. Thanks in large part to cornerback Sauce Gardner (minus-11.2 Targeted EPA), the Jets have limited Diontae Johnson, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Ja'Marr Chase to a combined 35.2 PPR fantasy points on 25 targets the past four weeks combined.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight
Gerald Everett, Chargers (versus Seahawks): Whether driven by Keenan Allen's (hamstring) five-week absence or not, Everett has been much more involved in the Chargers' passing game than expected, averaging 5.8 targets and 1.0 red zone targets, while placing 10th among tight ends with his 58.2 PPR fantasy points (and 11th with his 9.7 per-game average, among those with at least three games played). Allen should be back for Week 7, but expect Everett to remain a factor nevertheless, considering how poor the opposing Seahawks have been against tight ends to date. The four pass-catching tight ends this defense has faced (Albert Okwuegbunam, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Zach Ertz) have averaged nine catches and 19.0 PPR fantasy points. Take out Taysom Hill's 34.08-point Week 5 and this defense has still afforded tight ends the fourth-most points per game (17.2).
Others to like
I leave it to your judgment how relevant the "revenge factor" in your lineup decisions -- it's generally a tiebreaker for me in close calls -- but Evan Engram's (Jaguars, versus Giants) game against his former team of five seasons brings with it a well-above-average matchup. ... Assuming Dalton Schultz (Cowboys, versus Lions) is able to return from the knee injury that cost him Weeks 3 and 6, he'll match up brilliantly against a Lions defense affording tight ends the fourth-most PPR fantasy points per target (2.13).
Matchup to avoid
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (versus Saints): He goes from having the best matchup among tight ends in Week 6 to the worst (among defenses scheduled to play) this week, though Hopkins' return from suspension coupled with Robbie Anderson's acquisition should at least deflect some defensive attention after the team lost Marquise Brown (fractured foot) for an extended period. That this game will be played on the short week, however, means the Cardinals' wide receivers might not have completely jelled, so bear it in mind when evaluating Ertz, whose appeal is that he's one of the most heavily targeted players at the position. This defense hasn't seen a single tight end exceed 7.9 PPR fantasy points in a game -- that was Noah Fant's Week 5 total -- and while it has faced a light positional schedule, it's worth pointing out that it did limit Kyle Pitts, a similarly heavily targeted tight end (he had 7 targets in their game), to just 3.9 points in Week 1.