For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things may change from when I write this until game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 1.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders: No matter which way you slice it, Herbert has carved up the Raiders, surpassing the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings in three of his four career games against them. The Raiders had the worst red-zone defense in 2021, allowing a score on 81.4% of opponents drives that got close. The Chargers are favored in this game and Herbert averaged 71.4% more fantasy points-per-pass in 2021 in wins. I like Herbert more as a tournament option in Week 1 than as a cash-game play with other high-median, high-ceiling plays on the board for less money. We're paying up to be slightly contrarian here in Week 1.
Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: Hurts will be extremely popular in Week 1, both in cash games and tournaments on DraftKings. The Eagles added to their passing game, adding A.J. Brown in the offseason. That should help bolster Hurts' floor in the passing game. Last season, he amassed 13 games with over 35 rushing yards, tops of all quarterbacks. In 2021, Hurts was a high-floor/high-ceiling option. Week 1 of 2022 will be no different.
Trey Lance ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: Lance provides a cheap option at quarterback for cash games with an organically high floor because of his talent and ability to run the football. Added to that, the Bears allowed a TD pass on a league-high 6.5% of all passes in 2021. Plus, the fifth-most yards-per-pass gives Lance a softer landing spot in the opening week than some might imagine. I'll buy the floor for head-to-head contests while hoping that Lance can deliver the ball efficiently enough to his extremely talented group of pass-catchers to score 20-plus DraftKings points this week.
Also interested in
Kyler Murray ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Murray makes for an excellent tournament play in Week 1 for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the matchup against the Chiefs has the highest game total on the slate and could potentially result in 60-65 real-life points. Secondly, Murray has averaged 313-plus passing yards-per-game when the over/under has been above 50.
Daniel Jones ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel), New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: Even with an injured WR room, I'm buying Jones at $5,000 on DraftKings in Week 1. The price is too low when considering how easy it is to pair Jones with what will most certainly be the Giants' high-target percentage receivers in tournaments.
Running backs
Jonathan Taylor ($9,200 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: In 2021, Houston allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in a league-high nine games. In the two matchups that Taylor played against the Texans last season, he amassed over 140 rushing yards, on top of his scoring multiple touchdowns in both games. The Colts are 8.5-point favorites on the road, and Taylor figures to get a heavy dose of the work if the Colts get out to a substantial lead, allowing him to collect the rest of the work in mop-up duty during the second-half.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns: All the hand wringing over drafting McCaffrey to your season-long teams should be over, considering you're done with your fantasy football draft at this point. All that matters in DFS is this week's games and, if McCaffrey is healthy going into lineup lock time, I want to have McCaffrey on my rosters. Cleveland was the second-worst goal-to-go defense in 2021, allowing a score on 84.6% of opponents' drives that originated inside-the-10. In his last three season openers, McCaffrey has averaged 21 carries, eight targets and 132.8 total yards.
Joe Mixon ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: At his price on DraftKings, Mixon should be one of the more popular running backs in Week 1 -- period. The Bengals are favored and at home against a Steelers team that they throttled by scores of 21-10 and 41-10 last season. The Bengals' offseason work of bolstering their offensive line via free agency hasn't gone unnoticed. This should directly result in Mixon having increased efficiency on the ground. The five things that I look for most in running backs (individually and also collectively) are: do they project to touch the ball 20-plus times, are they involved in the passing game, do they get the majority of the inside-the-five carries for their team, are they favored, and are they playing at home. This week Mixon checks off all five of those boxes.
Also interested in
Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: Barkley is back, and he looks as healthy as he's looked since returning from his 2020 ACL injury. There is absolutely nobody to challenge him for snaps and touches. In the new offensive scheme the Giants are running, he has the potential to be the overall RB1 for the season. Specific to Week 1, the Titans allowed the fifth-most RB yards-per-catch (after the reception) last season This could be a massive boost to Barkley's fantasy potential this week, given how prolific he is in the passing game.
Wide receivers
Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: I believe that most of the focus at wide receiver is going to be on the value plays this week, which will allow everyone to pay up at running back. That leads me toward Hill as a fantastic tournament option in his first game for the Dolphins. Four out of the top six WR games against New England last year came from a WR1 (CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Jaylen Waddle). In his five career games against the Patriots (including the playoffs), Hill has amassed 25 catches for 443 yards and five touchdowns. Paying up to be contrarian in this spot for a player like Hill, who can break a slate all by himself, looks to be a fantastic leverage play unless percentage projections shift by the weekend.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: There's a lot of value in the mid-range at wide receiver, so I'll start with Pittman. By the end of draft season, his ADP had settled at the top of the third round and, with as many people excited about his 2022 prospects, I was a little shocked to see his Week 1 price point on DraftKings. His price on FanDuel is more reasonably expensive versus the hype coming in and he will probably be less played in tournaments there than on DraftKings, where I predict he will be one of the more popular wide receivers of the week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: Smith-Schuster is the next mid-range value play at wide receiver, playing in the game with the highest total of the day. The Cardinals allowed a touchdown on 7.9% of passes thrown to wide receivers, the second-highest total in the league in 2021. They also allowed the third-highest TD rate to the slot.
Wan'Dale Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: There are a lot of values at the Wr position this week, many of them under $4,000 on DraftKings. Robinson stands out, due to the amount of injuries sustained by other Giants receivers this preseason, all of which have resulted in him landing a starting slot role early in the 2022 season. The Giants are 5.5 point underdogs this week against Tennessee and should find themselves in pass-heavy game scripts often. More targets for a minimum-price wide receiver? That's always something I want to buy into on DraftKings.
Also interested in
Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers: Jefferson is my favorite "pay up to be contrarian" option on the slate. In 2021, Jefferson saw 1,032 receiving yards when the Vikings did not face a blitz -- and the Packers blitzed at the seventh-lowest rate last season. It's true the Packers have a good defense this year, but it's not a good one at defending the opponent's top receiving options. Seven times last season a player caught six passes and scored a touchdown against Green Bay. All of them were the featured options in the passing game.
Kadarius Toney ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel), New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: Tennessee allowed the second-most points to opposing wide receivers last year, the second-most receptions, the second-most yards, and they were tied for the fourth-most TDs allowed.
Romeo Doubs ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Doubs was already an interesting play before Allen Lazard missed practiced on Wednesday due to injury. Now we're in a situation where Doubs might be forced into a much larger role at the minimum salary on DraftKings in Week 1 -- and in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, no less.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: With as much value as currently exists on the board in Week 1, it is more than viable to pay up for a premium option at tight end. Andrews is in a prime spot against a Jets defense that allowed a league-high 74 red zone drives last year, a league-high 57 offensive touchdowns against, and also a league-high 9.1 yards-per-pass to opposing tight ends.
Zach Ertz ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Nine times last season a tight end reached double figure fantasy points against the Chiefs -- and it wasn't always a star that did it. MyCole Pruitt and Ricky Seals-Jones come to mind as two of the not-so-household names who achieved a double-digit score against Kansas City. Opposing teams do tend to funnel passes to the tight end against the Chiefs. In fact, 11 times last season Kansas City saw a tight end get five-plus targets against them.
Also interested in
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: Hurts was most accurate in 2021 when he targeted Goedert. Goedert caught 71.4% of Hurts' targets, compared to all other Eagles who caught only 64.2%. Five out of Goedert's top six fantasy games in 2021 came in wins, and the Eagles are 4.0-point favorites against the Lions.
Hayden Hurst ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hurst steps into a high-volume role for a tight end, filling the vacated targets from the since-departed C.J. Uzomah. Uzomah had six-plus targets in 4-of-5 games to close out last year's regular season.
Defenses
Tennessee Titans ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel), vs. Giants
Miami Dolphins ($2,600 DraftKings, 3,800 FanDuel), vs. Patriots
Washington Commanders ($2,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel), vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.