Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, we're going to talk fantasy football here. And we'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
This week, I'm going to focus on five players who are starting in my lineups. Players I targeted early this summer as prime fits for RB2s, flex plays and WR3s.
And we'll begin in Jacksonville, Florida, where one running back's play speed was jumping off the screen in August.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Anyone who watched Etienne this preseason knows what I'm talking about here with the Jags running back. You could feel his speed. Dynamic versatility. And the dual-threat traits in a new Jacksonville offensive system that will deploy Etienne as a pass-catcher, like we saw during his time at Clemson, where he logged 102 career receptions.
Now, James Robinson (Achilles) is slated to play in the Jacksonville backfield on Sunday versus Washington, too. While that will cut into Etienne's total volume, I still have him ranked as my RB16 this week in PPR formats against a zone-heavy Commanders defense. Last season, Washington played zone coverage on 65.4% of coverage snaps, the fifth most in the league. Soft windows there for Etienne on checkdowns, unders and flats ... in addition to the juice he brings in the run game. This is a solid matchup for the second-year back.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
If you need a WR3, especially in deeper leagues, then take a look at Aiyuk this Sunday in a matchup versus Matt Eberflus' defense in Chicago. Defined throws for quarterback Trey Lance here versus Cover 2. That's an anticipated early-down coverage scheme for the Bears, as Eberflus' defense in Indianapolis last year played two-deep zone on 34.5% of coverage snaps in first- and second-down situations (second most in the league). What kind of route concepts will see there? Deep curls, middle-of-field sit routes and deep overs (off play-action) that could lead to explosive plays. We saw some of that from Aiyuk versus Lovie Smith's Cover 2 defense last season in the Week 17 game.
The chess match between Eberflus and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, however, really happens on third down. Here, Eberflus will dial up more heat and play more single-high man coverage. Now, we're thinking quick hitters in these down-and-distance situations. Crossers, slants, in-breakers. Catch and go -- which plays to Aiyuk's traits. In 2021, Aiyuk averaged 6.45 yards after the catch. And I believe he will see favorable matchups working opposite of Deebo Samuel on money downs versus a young Chicago secondary in Week 1.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
In two games versus the Bengals last season, Freiermuth caught 7 of 9 targets for 62 yards with two touchdown grabs. And both of those scoring receptions were set up for Freiermuth inside the 20-yard line. Scheme and matchup there. Plus, I do see the Steelers tight end being deployed more out in the field as an inside, vertical-stretch target. In 2021, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback and quick-game throws due to Big Ben's declining skill set, Freiermuth averaged just 5.54 air yards per target. Stick routes, quick outs, underneath sit routes, more.
This Sunday, look for Freiermuth to work the seams off the Steelers' play-action concepts with quarterback Mitch Trubisky. Create a void with the run action and give your quarterback a clear lane to drive the ball to the middle of the field. I'm starting Freiermuth in one of my home leagues this week because of the matchup versus the Bengals' single-high coverages and the opportunity for his route tree to expand. He can post TE1 numbers in this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB New England Patriots
My RB27 this week in PPR ranks, Stevenson fits as a flex play given the run game volume in the New England offense versus Miami on Sunday. We all know that Stevenson can get downhill with the ball. Jump on the tracks and go. Goal-line touches, too. Light feet, finishing power, more explosive play juice than you think.
In 2021, Stevenson logged 20 carries of 10 yards or more. The 230-pounder can shake loose, now. With Stevenson sharing the rushing workload with Damien Harris, however, let's see if the second-year pro starts to see an uptick in receiving opportunities. As a rookie, Stevenson caught just 14 of 18 targets. With an increase here, Stevenson would vault into the RB2 discussion in Week 2.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
I was all-in on Smith-Schuster this summer. One of my favorite draft targets. So, I'm going to roll with the veteran receiver in the KC offense with a Week 1 matchup versus Arizona. We are speculating a bit on how this Chiefs system looks without Tyreek Hill. Andy Reid could go old school here, running more traditional, two-back pro sets like he did when he was calling plays in Philadelphia. Or there could be an increase in run-pass options. Maybe more schemed deep balls.
Regardless, we do know that Smith-Schuster has inside/outside flex, and he brings a different element to Kansas City from slot alignments. And I'm leaning on the traits of Patrick Mahomes, who posted an on-target rate of 86.1% when throwing to the slot last season. There's volume here for Smith-Schuster as a WR3 in PPR formats on Sunday.