Your research and draft are done, your roster set. Surely it's now time to sit back, relax and watch as the good fantasy stats roll in?
Far from it.
Fantasy football, arguably more than any other of the major sports, involves a lot of in-season roster manipulation, most notably weekly lineup-setting decisions. Assembling your optimal lineup is integral to your team's success. If you've played this game for any degree of time, you've certainly heard all about "the matchups," the most commonly referenced factor in making those tough decisions between similarly valued players. When all else fails, start the player whose matchup is more favorable.
Ah, but that's where this gets complicated. Exactly how does one decipher the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let's get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason. Ten head-coaching jobs -- tied for the most in any offseason and representing 31% of the league -- and another 12 defensive coordinator roles changed hands, potentially dramatically changing teams' defensive schemes, while marquee names like Chandler Jones, Khalil Mack, Von Miller and Bobby Wagner changed teams, further altering the 2022 landscape. Don't even bother diving into preseason statistics, either, considering the limited snaps true defensive starters play.
The good news, however, is that you've come to the right spot as far as determining the best and worst matchups for Week 1. The "Matchups Map," published every Thursday, ranks all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). For Week 1, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2021 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
Additionally -- and this approach will carry into the 2022 regular season, when we will begin incorporating in-season data when there are three weeks in the books -- all statistical data takes a schedule-independent approach to determining strength of positional matchups. The Miami Dolphins, for example, afforded opposing quarterbacks a combined 263.64 PPR fantasy points in 2021, the sixth fewest by any defensive unit. In the process, however, they faced only three top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, while only seven of 17 managed even a 15-point average for the season, which graded as by far the easiest positional schedule in the league. Adjusting for this, by comparing the points that they allowed to their opponents' typical outputs, the Dolphins were the 11th-worst defense against quarterbacks last season.
So let's get to the charts and get your lineup-setting process underway. The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of the matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position in 2021. Remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
A couple of caveats before we start: Again, take the 2021 data with a heaping dose of salt, as the rankings are much more important. Additionally, matchups are only one ingredient to the lineup-setting process, as not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.