Your research and draft are done, your roster set. Surely it's now time to sit back, relax and watch as the good fantasy stats roll in?
Far from it.
Fantasy football, arguably more than any other of the major sports, involves a lot of in-season roster manipulation, most notably weekly lineup-setting decisions. Assembling your optimal lineup is integral to your team's success. If you've played this game for any degree of time, you've certainly heard all about "the matchups," the most commonly referenced factor in making those tough decisions between similarly valued players. When all else fails, start the player whose matchup is more favorable.
Ah, but that's where this gets complicated. Exactly how does one decipher the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let's get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason. Ten head-coaching jobs -- tied for the most in any offseason and representing 31% of the league -- and another 12 defensive coordinator roles changed hands, potentially dramatically changing teams' defensive schemes, while marquee names like Chandler Jones, Khalil Mack, Von Miller and Bobby Wagner changed teams, further altering the 2022 landscape. Don't even bother diving into preseason statistics, either, considering the limited snaps true defensive starters play.
The good news, however, is that you've come to the right spot as far as determining the best and worst matchups for Week 1. The "Matchups Map," published every Thursday, ranks all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). For Week 1, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2021 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
Additionally -- and this approach will carry into the 2022 regular season, when we will begin incorporating in-season data when there are three weeks in the books -- all statistical data takes a schedule-independent approach to determining strength of positional matchups. The Miami Dolphins, for example, afforded opposing quarterbacks a combined 263.64 PPR fantasy points in 2021, the sixth fewest by any defensive unit. In the process, however, they faced only three top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, while only seven of 17 managed even a 15-point average for the season, which graded as by far the easiest positional schedule in the league. Adjusting for this, by comparing the points that they allowed to their opponents' typical outputs, the Dolphins were the 11th-worst defense against quarterbacks last season.
So let's get to the charts and get your lineup-setting process underway. The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of the matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position in 2021. Remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
A couple of caveats before we start: Again, take the 2021 data with a heaping dose of salt, as the rankings are much more important. Additionally, matchups are only one ingredient to the lineup-setting process, as not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks). Among the game-matchup highlights of Week 1 is Wilson's return to Seattle, which is on the big stage on Monday Night Football. It's similarly high profile in fantasy, as Wilson, selected 11th at his position on average in ESPN leagues, becomes a locked-in, top-eight play facing his former teammates, who are now sans Wagner (now with the Los Angeles Rams) and have switched from a 4-3 to 3-4 defense under new coordinator Clint Hurtt. There are seeds of improvement on the Seahawks' defensive side, as Jordyn Brooks takes over for Wagner, Uchenna Nwosu should help the pass rush and Jamal Adams could return as one of his position's best if he recovers effectively from shoulder surgery, and schematic changes can cause chaos in fantasy-matchups analysis. Nevertheless, this was a bottom-eight schedule-adjusted defense against the position in 2021, and Wilson will certainly be motivated to exploit its weaknesses.
Others to like: Jameis Winston (New Orleans Saints, at Atlanta Falcons) has averaged 24.6 fantasy points in his past seven meetings with the Falcons, passing for three-plus scores in six of them, but to be fair, those occurred between 2016 and '19. ... Matt Ryan (Indianapolis Colts, at Houston Texans) gets a dream 2QB/superflex matchup against a rebuilding Texans team.
Unfavorable matchup: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Buffalo Bills). He faces the Bills in the season's opening game that has seen quarterbacks average 19.0 fantasy points on average in the past nine seasons, and the game's over/under is a second highest of the week 52 points. As such, Stafford will probably be a popular fantasy starter. Still, let's not forget that he was the No. 12 positional selection on average, and he faced questions about the health of his elbow during the preseason. Rams coach Sean McVay announced no limitations on his quarterback entering Week 1, but considering this matchup, Stafford's managers would do well to bench him and first evaluate his health themselves. The Bills' secondary is one of the league's best, even without star cornerback Tre'Davious White, having afforded opposing quarterbacks the fewest total fantasy points as well as the fewest schedule-adjusted points last season and the eighth-fewest total and 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted points (minus-0.2 per game) in the final six weeks of 2021, which White missed. Having plucked edge rusher Von Miller from Stafford's own Rams during the offseason only helps the Bills' cause for this game.
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Running backs
Favorable matchup: Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (at Chicago Bears). Speaking of offseason changes on the defensive side -- these are why past-year matchups data is sketchy when it comes to Week 1 analysis -- the Bears have made plenty, between new head coach Matt Eberflus, new defensive coordinator Alan Williams, the trade of defensive stalwart Khalil Mack and three rookie starters plus six first-year backups. Eberflus is shifting the defense to a 4-3 base, à la his strategy during his Indianapolis days, but the roster he inherits is weakest on the outside edge. That's where Mitchell does his best work, having paced running backs with 17 carries of 10-plus yards outside the tackles, and it's worth pointing out that he dropped 16.7 fantasy points -- every one of them on rushing attempts -- against Eberflus' Colts defense in Week 7 of last season. Among running backs who went outside the position's top 20 in preseason ADP, Mitchell has perhaps the highest-ceiling matchup.
Others to like: Miles Sanders (Philadelphia Eagles, at Detroit Lions) might face a dreaded running-back-by-committee arrangement as he recovers from a hamstring injury, but he faces what's widely considered the league's worst all-around defense. ... Rashaad Penny (Seattle Seahawks, vs. Broncos) faces a potential game-flow problem in Week 1, but he draws the best part of his offense's matchup, plus he should have the backfield almost entirely to himself for the opener.
Unfavorable matchup: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Baltimore Ravens). His NFL debut brings with it a near-perfect storm of unappealing fantasy factors, from the prospect of his beginning in a time share with sophomore Michael Carter, to Zach Wilson's knee surgery pressing low-ceiling Joe Flacco into the quarterback spot, to the matchup itself. Sure, injuries obliterated the Ravens' defense over a six-game, season-ending losing streak in 2021, but the unit appears healthier today, brought in reinforcements in safeties Marcus Williams (free agency) and Kyle Hamilton (first-round draft pick), and generally remained strong against the run, specifically even during said slump. For the season, this was the second-toughest schedule-adjusted defense against running backs, and this unit might actually be on the upswing entering 2022.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs (at Arizona Cardinals). Among the most pertinent, fantasy-related questions to which we seek answers entering Week 1 is who will be Patrick Mahomes' go-to guy in the receiving game now that Tyreek Hill is in Miami? The uncertainty of the target distribution might be a concern for those who roster JuJu Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman -- that's my preferred order of starting them, for the record -- but this is just about the best matchup one could ask, alleviating that opportunity concern while lending a likelihood that we'll get some genuine answers. Valdes-Scantling gets highlighted here as one of the week's best bang-for-the-buck picks, a big-play, deep-threat type who matches up brilliantly against a Cardinals defense that allowed a third-most 54 vertical catches (passes thrown at least 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and made minimal offseason moves to improve on that front.
Others to like: We should get similar answers on the Broncos' target distribution, but I still prefer Jerry Jeudy (Broncos, at Seahawks) if pressed to choose for the long haul. ... As the WR2 in a WR1-TE1-WR2 pecking order, DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles, at Detroit Lions) will primarily be appealing in fantasy when facing defenses as weak as the aforementioned Lions.
Unfavorable matchup: DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. Cleveland Browns). Yes, it'll be tough for Moore's managers to bench him, considering his WR13 preseason ADP, but among higher-profile wide receivers, he has one of the widest -- and scariest-floor -- ranges of outcome. The Browns, while an underperformer on defense as a whole in 2021, were especially good against opposing wide receivers, in large part because of the play of star cornerback Denzel Ward (0.229 PPR fantasy points per coverage snap last year). It doesn't help matters that edge rushers Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney could give the Browns one of the league's best pass rushes, which could be problematic for ex-teammate and now-Panther Baker Mayfield, as he had bottom-five completion percentages (60.5%) and off-target rates (19.0%) when pressured last season. Moore tends to get his targets, matchups be damned, but tuck this away as you consider the complexion (read: upside/downside prospects) of your starting lineup.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (vs. Philadelphia Eagles). While the Eagles are stacked at cornerback, having allowed the second-fewest schedule-adjusted PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season, then added James Bradberry (sixth-best 17 passes defensed), their defense was -- and will probably remain -- a sieve against opposing tight ends. Positional opponents scored 5.2 PPR fantasy points above their seasonal averages in Eagles matchups, in large part because of a thin safety corps and below-average group of linebackers. Defenses sometimes do use cornerbacks to cover the tight end, especially one who lines up at wide receiver as often as Hockenson does (755 of 1,844 career snaps), but the Lions now have enough receiving depth -- Amon-Ra St. Brown flourished late last year, and they added DJ Chark -- that Hockenson should find advantageous spots aligned against a safety or linebacker.
Others to like: Albert Okwuegbunam (Broncos, at Seahawks) doesn't stack up against the Seahawks as well as his wide receiver teammates do, but where Wilson stands out, the tight end should follow suit. ... Dallas Goedert (Eagles, at Lions) also benefits from that cozy matchup against the bad Lions defense.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (vs. New England Patriots). Consider this one as much of a warning about his full-season value as it is the Week 1 matchup itself, though that's not an especially attractive one, being that the Patriots limited opposing tight ends to the fewest total PPR fantasy points and second-fewest schedule-adjusted points in 2021. Their secondary did endure turnover, as cornerback J.C. Jackson departed for the Chargers, but the defense is in much better shape at safety, detracting from Gesicki's matchup. There were rumblings he'd be a trade candidate ahead of the roster cut-down, but as he remains in Miami today, he's a so-so weekly TE2 choice who should be avoided against all above-average defenses.