The Denver Broncos won seven games and finished in last place in the loaded AFC West last season, roughly middle of the pack in both passing and rushing yards. Running backs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III split time and each approached 1,000 rushing yards, but no wide receiver caught as many as 60 passes or reached 800 receiving yards. Tight end Noah Fant led the team with 68 receptions.
Does any of this matter today? Nope, because, with all due respect, Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock started at quarterback, and they are no longer Broncos (and neither is Fant, for that matter).
Yeah, acquiring Super Bowl-winning quarterback and nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson kind of changes everything. Everything!
Not only do I believe Wilson returns to critical statistical relevancy for fantasy managers, but I seem to be investing in so many Broncos that I may as well have actual stock in the franchise. Nothing against Bridgewater and Lock, but they aren't Wilson. His arrival turns what was a predictable offense into anything but that, and raises the value of the individual options for statistical purposes. Statistics are what we do here in the fantasy football world. Draft Broncos. It should be quite a productive offensive season.
My annual "Do Draft" list is obviously a lot more positive than the oft-misunderstood "Do Not Draft" list. Ultimately, it's not about positive feelings; it still all comes down to value. Wilson returning to top-five fantasy QB status -- he finished No. 3 in 2019 and No. 6 in 2020 -- seems plausible, but don't draft him that way. I remain likely to wait on quarterbacks until the middle rounds.
Williams, entering his second season, should gently push the grizzled veteran Gordon aside a bit and handle a greater percentage of running back touches. No, don't expect 300 touches, because Gordon was nearly as productive last season and should be again, but Williams is clearly emerging. Gordon is a tremendous value pick in Round 13 (or average ESPN drafts), too. I'd take him five rounds prior and, in this situation, a fantasy manager could invest in and activate both Denver running backs and be pleased.
Similarly, a wise fantasy manager could invest in young Broncos wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy -- or is the order Jeudy and Sutton -- and reap benefits. KJ Hamler also has game. Perhaps even young tight end Albert Okwuegbunam breaks out. So much has changed in Denver -- the Broncos even have a new head coach and new ownership group -- and with it comes so many possibilities.
Sutton and Jeudy combined for only 91 catches and two touchdowns last season, but that's all irrelevant now. Wilson is here. Sutton, a second-round pick in 2018, topped 1,100 receiving yards in 2019 with Joe Flacco starting eight games, and Lock and Brandon Allen handling the others. Then Sutton tore an ACL in the 2020 opener and was compromised last season. Somewhat similarly, Jeudy, a 2020 first-round pick from Alabama, suffered a high-ankle sprain in the team's 2021 opener, and it sidetracked him the rest of the season. Check out some of the impressive numbers Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett produced with Wilson in Seattle. That should be what a healthy Sutton and Jeudy can do this season.
Moving on, we can invest in only so many Broncos. Let's go position by position with others I seem to be securing in my many drafts because, really, we can say we like this player and that player, but until you draft often and see who you end up with -- remember to practice in the mock draft lobby -- you just do not know for sure.
Quarterback
I tried drafting a quarterback early -- such as Josh Allen or Justin Herbert -- and just didn't like the makeup of my fantasy roster. It was deficient at running back/wide receiver, which didn't feel right. In addition, I see 13 quarterbacks I can make a case for as top-10 options, and perhaps Derek Carr belongs there as well, so patience is clearly the play here. I keep ending up with Russell Wilson (he's going in Round 9), Aaron Rodgers and Super Bowl champion Rams signal-caller Matthew Stafford, which is good enough.
As for later on, and noting there is no need to secure a second quarterback on draft day in ESPN standard leagues, I do recommend Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins and new Colt Matt Ryan. These are value picks, 4,000-yard passers who might easily end up as top-12 fantasy passers. Nobody ever seems to want the beleaguered Cousins, but he has finished as the No. 11 fantasy QB each of the past two seasons. No, really, you can win with him.
Running back
As noted in my "Do Not Draft" entry and in this realistic (I think) look at a brittle player getting too much fantasy love, I would pass on Carolina Panthers star Christian McCaffrey with a top-five overall selection. Folks, he has played 10 of 33 games in two seasons. Do running backs suddenly get more durable as they age? Invest in Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris instead. Durability matters. I also love D'Andre Swift in Round 2, and I don't get fading Nick Chubb. The Browns are still gonna run the football a lot, and Chubb is terrific.
I tend to secure two or three running backs among my first five players, bypassing quarterback and tight end for a while, and that means I've been getting quite a bit of Javonte Williams, David Montgomery, Travis Etienne Jr. and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Receptions count for a lot, and Etienne is going to really pile them on. So should Edwards-Helaire.
Later on, I like Melvin Gordon, Tony Pollard and James Robinson, and Houston rookie Dameon Pierce is going to be a star right away. He even made the top 100 in my superflex rankings. I also recommend picking the other Panthers running back later -- take a guess between Chuba Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman, but I like Foreman -- and if I must choose a rookie in the later rounds, it sure seems like Tampa Bay's Rachaad White and Washington's Brian Robinson have opportunity.
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Wide receiver
I don't think one can go wrong with any of the top 25 or so wide receivers, but I do see some odd fading on Deebo Samuel, DJ Moore and Brandin Cooks. These players achieved a lot in 2021 despite their team's quarterback play, so I'm not sure why people expect regression now. Samuel is fantastic and is a factor/unstoppable on running plays. Moore might not pile on the touchdowns, but he has three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and let's just say the QB play was not at a Mahomes level. Cooks has six 1,000-yard seasons for four franchises. Anyone can play QB for him!
Moving on, as with Samuel, Moore and Cooks, I look for wide receivers who tend to slip a bit in drafts, and happily pounce. Michael Pittman Jr. fits the description, as does Diontae Johnson. They don't need to produce better numbers than last season with new quarterbacks, just the same ones. I already mentioned Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy earlier. Same goes for Amon-Ra St. Brown. What he achieved as a rookie on a terrible team was tremendous, and even if he gets only a little bit better statistically, he's a WR2.
Gobble up these receivers after the middle rounds: Adam Thielen (whom I featured along with other forgotten receivers here), Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk (yes, the Jaguars will have a legitimate offense now) and emerging Jets wideout Elijah Moore. It stinks that Jets starting QB Zach Wilson might miss some time, but Moore is simply too good to keep in check. He's going to double his receiving yards from his rookie season.
Speaking of rookies, I tend to let others guess who emerges and go with second- and third-year options on the rise, but Pittsburgh's George Pickens does impress and his quarterback play should be good enough. Kansas City's Skyy Moore has no such worries at QB, and quite the opportunity. Same with Dallas' Jalen Tolbert, whom nobody seems to be discussing, but he might start in September for an elite offense.
Tight end
I've been waiting until the middle rounds to fill this position and getting a lot of Dallas Goedert and his former colleague Zach Ertz. They go after Round 10, and it makes no sense to me why someone would take George Kittle or Darren Waller five or six rounds prior. Sometimes I wait even longer at tight end and feel like Pat Freiermuth and Tyler Higbee suffice. And to go full circle with this novel, the aforementioned new Seahawk Noah Fant is underrated in ADP. Hey, he proved he didn't need awesome QB play last season, and he might even get the same QB.