Even though half of the starting running backs from the NFC East still finished among the top 10 volume scorers in fantasy football last season, fantasy managers near and far had plenty to complain about it when it came to this group of players. So much more was expected from Saquon Barkley (New York Giants), Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys), Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders) and Miles Sanders (Philadelphia Eagles), and expectations were clearly not met, pretty much across the board.
Every summer when I write the annual fantasy football "Do Not Draft" list, sure to be misinterpreted by most and based mainly on comparing results from ESPN average live drafts to my own rankings and statistical expectations, I do take a look at the myriad teams I've already drafted to see trends. What I haven't been seeing on 2022 teams are shares of the NFC East running backs, and there's good reason for this. Their individual and collective value feels, well, misinterpreted. Warning signs are everywhere!
Barkley was arguably a bigger fantasy bust last season than Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey because his disheartening underachieving was spaced out over four months and 13 games. Sure, Barkley was awesome as a rookie in 2018 and very good as a follow-up. Then he blew out his knee. Badly. Even acknowledging the dysfunctional mess that was last season's Giants, from coaching to scheme to perhaps especially quarterback, Barkley did not run well, averaging 3.7 YPC, and 32 other running backs averaged more PPR points per game. Barkley lacked speed and elusiveness. Perhaps it all gloriously comes back and he dominates as a receiver from the backfield for four months, but it is far too risky to pay a third-round price to find out. Pass.
Perhaps things don't appear so bad for Elliott, since only six other running backs scored more PPR points, though 16 averaged more points per game. The Cowboys have noticed that years of physical pounding has cost him valuable efficiency. The younger, game-breaking Tony Pollard is ready to emerge as a star. Elliott squeaked past 1,000 rushing yards and scored 12 touchdowns, owing the stats mostly to opportunity, but Pollard cut into his workload and averaged 5.5 YPC. He's the future. As with Barkley, Elliott is but a shadow of the big-play threat from years ago, relying more on goal-line carries and volume, and he can't blame his quarterback and offensive line. Fantasy managers still view Elliott as a sure thing as he goes in Round 4, while the underrated Pollard goes seven rounds later! Even I would invest in Elliott over Pollard, but not at these ADP figures. Only one of them is a value pick.
Gibson's top-10 PPR finish among running backs was also about volume, and that volume seems to be getting further compromised. Gibson averaged 4.7 YPC as a rookie. That mark fell to 4.0 YPC last season, and Gibson was also quite inefficient on his myriad goal-line attempts, scoring touchdowns on only 15% of them, one of the poorest marks in the league. The Commanders selected rookie Brian Robinson from Alabama for a reason. He's bigger and wider than Gibson. A healthy J.D. McKissic would handle third-down work and catch passes. Does it feel like every NFC East starting running back has already has his best season? Gibson rushed for more than 70 yards in only five of 16 games last season. He may find it difficult to see enough workload to get to that number in 2022, making him an unreliable RB2 choice and sixth-round selection.
It's almost unfathomable the talented Sanders could go an entire season (well, 12 games) and score nary a touchdown, and do so for one of the best rushing offenses in the league. But it happened. The Eagles boast a running quarterback in Jalen Hurts, and as with Josh Allen and others from the past (such as Cam Newton), he was his own goal-line option. Hurts is bigger than Sanders. Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell is a superior receiver out of the backfield and perhaps the team's future three-down starter, Boston Scott is still a factor and Sanders is without a contract after this season. Any proof that a player is extra motivated and produces greater statistics in a contract seasons is ... dubious, to the say the least. The Eagles appear in no hurry to keep Sanders around long term, as he has missed nine games the past two seasons due to various injuries and frustrated the organization with fumbles and dropped passes. It's difficult to make a case for him as a RB2, but that's how some are viewing him.
And there you go. The NFC East boasts many terrific fantasy options, with two top-10 quarterbacks, exciting, young wide receivers and even two of the better statistical tight ends in the sport, but at running back, there are potential dangers based on generous expectations from past performance. Investing a few rounds later in each case is more palatable, but not at current ADP. You've been warned, eager fantasy managers.
Moving on, here are other players I continue to avoid in drafts. As always, though, it hardly means I would do so if they would simply slip a few rounds. Drafts are all about value.
Quarterback envy
For ESPN standard leagues, which require one quarterback and many flex-eligible players to get through a season, there is little upside to selecting a passer early. There is always significant QB depth. Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen is going in the top 20 of ESPN ADP. Even if Allen duplicates his amazing 2021 campaign, Rounds 2 or 3 are underwhelming value for a quarterback when four of the top 5 PPR scorers a season ago were quarterbacks, and nine of 15. It's nothing against Allen, but the opportunity cost of missing on a top running back and wide receiver, when we need so many to get through a season, is simply too great.
I actually think choosing the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes in Rounds 3 or 4 is just as risky, if not more so. Mahomes is great, but since his monster 2018 campaign, he has not finished among the top 3 quarterbacks in fantasy in any of the past three seasons. Everyone seems to be penalizing Aaron Rodgers in the rankings for losing WR Davante Adams, but not Mahomes for losing Tyreek Hill? Both Tom Brady and Kyler Murray averaged more fantasy per game than Mahomes and are going four or five rounds later in drafts. There is depth at QB. Wait for it.
Other QBs to fade based on ADP: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals; Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans; Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders.
Touchdown realism
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner scored 18 touchdowns last season, 15 on the ground, after scoring 13 touchdowns his final two seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was surely a memorable season, but the touchdown rate is unsustainable. Conner is not on the same level as Jonathan Taylor. Conner is 27, averaged 3.7 YPC last season and is a modest factor in the passing game, finished 32nd in yards from scrimmage and has missed multiple games each of his five NFL seasons. Fantasy managers seem a bit too eager to secure him in Round 3.
Meanwhile, things seem no less improbable for Atlanta Falcons surprise Cordarrelle Patterson. One can wait past Round 6 to get him, but expecting double-digit touchdowns again from a 31-year-old who wants to return kickoffs is dangerous. Patterson, who tied for 28th in rushing attempts last season, with fewer than Mark Ingram, Chuba Hubbard and Myles Gaskin, was mostly a nonfactor statistically in December, averaging totaling fewer than 100 total yards his final four games. The Falcons can and should give rookie Tyler Allgeier significant touches.
Other RBs to fade based on ADP: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens; Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders; Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks.
Catching on somewhere else
While Adams and Hill moving on to Las Vegas and Miami, respectively, may not significantly impede their fantasy statistics enough to call them risky, things are different for Cleveland Browns newcomer Amari Cooper. Cooper, 28 and joining his third NFL squad, was 30th among wide receivers in PPR points per game, and now he leaves solid Dak Prescott in Dallas to go to a run-first outfit with ordinary Jacoby Brissett starting at quarterback the first six games, at the least. No Browns caught 75 passes or approached 1,000 receiving yards either of the past two seasons, and it wasn't all because of quarterback play. Cooper as your third WR is not a sure thing.
Allen Robinson II joins up with the champion Los Angeles Rams, and everyone points to him finally getting to play with a top-flight NFL quarterback in Matthew Stafford. This is true. It's also true that Robinson, 28, can't possibly expect the bulk of targets he was used to from his Jaguars and early Bears days. Cooper Kupp saw nearly 200 targets, and not because the Rams lacked other options. He's great. Perhaps Robinson returns to health and becomes reborn as he leaves an impossible situation to thrive in Chicago, thanks to a lack of coaching and QB play, but expecting him to sail past 1,000 receiving yards is too optimistic.
Other WRs to fade based on ADP: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints; DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals; Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals; Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills; any New York Giants.
Finally ... are you kidding?
We see it every year, and it still makes no sense. There should never be a D/ST going in the first 10 rounds of a standard draft. This season it's the Buffalo Bills in Round 8 of ADP, ahead of useful flex options such as Kansas City Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen and Bills RB Devin Singletary, among myriad others. That doesn't mean you should always save the D/ST for the penultimate round, but Round 8 is silly, even as we acknowledge the Bills may be great defensively. Playing great defense does not automatically translate to big fantasy stats. No D/ST unit averaged 10 PPR points per game last season, and the difference between the top and the middle was negligible. Seven D/ST units are going in the first 13 rounds. Don't do it.
Meanwhile, the only reason a fantasy manager should secure a kicker in the final round is because they make us secure a kicker at all. There has never been a way to predict kicker performance from year to year, and no, looking at top offenses doesn't do it. Chiefs K Harrison Butker finished 12th in fantasy scoring last season. Daniel Carlson of the Raiders led kickers, but he could easily finish outside the top 10 in 2022. Baltimore Ravens K Justin Tucker is going in the 10th round of ADP. He barely outscored Chris Boswell and Greg Joseph, who are barely going in drafts at all this season. Save your kicker for the final round or, if the site permits, don't draft a kicker and pick up anyone just before Week 1.