Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill have been two of fantasy football's most dominating wide receivers in recent memory, having scored the most (1,245.0) and second-most (1,147.7) PPR fantasy points since the beginning of the 2018 season. Using the VBD (Value Based Drafting) scoring method, Adams has been a top-10 overall performer in three of the past four seasons (fifth overall in 2020, sixth in 2021 and 10th in 2018), and Hill has in two of those (seventh in 2020, eighth in 2018) while finishing 16th overall in that scoring method last season.
However, changes to each of their circumstances entering 2022 fuels entirely legitimate questions as to whether either can replicate his past first-round fantasy value. Adams was traded by the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders in mid-March, severing the brilliant quarterback-to-wide receiver connection he had with Aaron Rodgers, while Hill was dealt by the Kansas City Chiefs to the Miami Dolphins six days later, separating him from otherworldly quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
For Adams, these questions mostly center around the receiving depth that now surrounds him.
For Hill, these questions mostly center around his quarterback's passing ability, though the receiving-depth question is also valid with him.
For both players, the question also hinges upon the wealth of talent present at the position's top tier in fantasy, weakening a relative scarcity case for elite wide receivers.
Adams' first-round case in Las Vegas
For all the angst over Adams' split from Rodgers, an advantage he does have over Hill in the wake of their trades is a more stable quarterback situation awaiting him. In Derek Carr, Adams gets a quarterback with underrated accuracy. Over the past three seasons, Carr's 68.7% completion rate is third best among qualifiers (and better than Rodgers' 67.1%) and his 13.8% off-target rate is fifth best (again better than Rodgers' 16.6%).
Digging deeper, one of Carr's greatest "failings" over eight NFL seasons -- and especially the past three -- has been a lack of a consistently reliable, and most importantly available, outside receiver. From 2019 to '21, he had the league's seventh-best passer rating between the numbers, but only 17th best when throwing outside of them. Adams, meanwhile, was the league's leader on throws outside the numbers in targets (260), receptions (179), receiving yards (2,244) and touchdowns (22). It gives the look of that final puzzle piece needed for the Raiders' passing game to truly take off.
Then there's Adams' history with Carr, as the two connected for 233 receptions, 3,031 receiving yards and 38 touchdowns over two seasons working together in college at Fresno State (2012-13). Adams also mentioned following his trade that the two would routinely work out together during the offseason, at least until Carr's Raiders moved from Oakland to Las Vegas following the 2019 season. Past chemistry has been oft-cited as a rationale for Adams' trade to the Raiders, and it's an entirely relevant supporting point for Adams' ability to repeat.
That said, Adams comes to Las Vegas as the presumed new leader of the Raiders' receiving corps -- and rightfully so -- but it's a deep group, returning 2021's No. 10 wide receiver in terms of PPR fantasy points (Hunter Renfrow), a tight end who was No. 2 in scoring at his position in 2020 and finished sixth in PPR points per game (minimum 10 played) in 2021 (Darren Waller), and let's not forget running back Josh Jacobs, who had the ninth-most targets of anyone at his position. Accounting for all currently rostered personnel, the Raiders have added 238 targets accumulated by players from 2021 during the offseason. That's the second-largest increase in the age-old "vacated targets" measurement.
In Renfrow, Carr and the Raiders have a receiver who brings much prowess on shorter routes, the area of greatest concern for Adams' 2022 production, and a facet that often makes the difference in propelling a player into fantasy's top-10 value tier. It is, after all, a place where a receiver can pile up a good share of high-efficiency receptions, which is important in PPR scoring. Renfrow had the league's fourth-most targets within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage or shorter last season (69), accounting for 54% of his total targets. Adams, by comparison, had the league's third-most such targets (71), and 36% of his PPR production last season came specifically on those throws.
In Waller, the Raiders have a tight end as good on shorter routes as he is capable of hauling in deep passes. Adams' arrival certainly helps alleviate Waller's volume of coverage on the latter. In the past two seasons combined, Waller had the second-most targets (56), third-most receptions (24) and fourth-most receiving yards (578) on throws at least 15 yards downfield, and he earned those rankings despite missing six games in 2021. Speaking to those absences, if Waller can manage to stay completely healthy in 2022, that team's vacated-target number could become even more problematic, causing him to siphon off more of Adams' targets.
In defense of Adams' place in the Raiders' receiving game, he, Renfrow and Waller do present a near-ideal set of complementary skills, which is why it's easy to find enthusiasm over what this offense can do. The problem is that, mathematically speaking, the main way that Adams gets to or exceeds his average annual production with the Packers is either by an injury to one of his fellow receivers, or Carr and the Raiders vastly improving their passing-game production. The latter certainly could happen, but fantasy is an odds-making game.
Hill's first-round case in Miami
The vast majority of the questions surrounding Hill's immediate fantasy future center upon the raw ability -- and much more importantly future potential -- of his new quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. The third-year passer has shown incremental growth at the NFL level but still finished 21st at his position in fantasy points per game (minimum 10 starts) last season. In addition, he has barely exhibited the deep ball during his first two seasons, ranking 30th among 37 qualifiers in 2020-21 in average depth of target (7.1 yards) and 32nd in his rate of attempts that travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (8.3%).
That's not to say that Tagovailoa can't improve or succeed when aiming deep, as he hasn't often had a player of Hill's ability to help with the latter, but the anti-Hill argument comes down to his quarterback's lack of proof of either.
Consider that Hill has caught 56 touchdown passes during his six-year NFL career, and 30 of them have come on throws that traveled at least 15 yards downfield. That 54% rate of such catches ranks among the highest in the league and is well above the NFL average during that time (31%). The challenge for Hill in Miami will be to at least approach that level of production with his new quarterback, because without it, he'll lack the statistical upside necessary to warrant top-10-overall valuation status.
Additionally, Adams' arrival in Las Vegas gave his Raiders the second-largest increase in rostered 2021 targets, but would you have guessed that the Dolphins had the largest (270 added)? This team squeezed some very good, and heavy-volume, seasons out of Jaylen Waddle (140 targets) and Mike Gesicki (112), and had actually the 11th-most pass-heavy offense in the game (60% of their plays).
Fortunately for Hill, he fits the mold of the Dolphins' new deep threat, filling the shoes of the departed DeVante Parker. Waddle was more of a short-range option for Tagovailoa, and a large part of the reason the sophomore quarterback had a solid 67.8% completion rate. Waddle's 7.0-yard aDOT ranked only 88th among 142 qualified receivers. Gesicki's 8.6-yard aDOT ranked 67th among all pass-catchers and sixth among 27 qualified tight ends, meaning he's the one whose deep targets will probably be more threatened by Hill's presence.
Can a Hill-Waddle dynamic duo be the key that unlocks Tagovailoa's passing prowess? It's a possibility, but questions about the quarterback's ability to shoulder consistent 40-attempt workloads week after week while maintaining a high level of accuracy are valid. And without supporting evidence, it's fair to question whether Hill's statistical ceiling is close to what it was in Kansas City working with Mahomes. Let's face it: Tagovailoa is not Mahomes.
How deep is wide receiver, really?
For all the arguments above against either Adams or Hill as a top-10 fantasy draft pick -- and, frankly, top-12 or top-14 in the leagues that include at least those many teams -- perhaps the most relevant one is the talent within their position. Last season, 11 of the top 17 non-quarterbacks in terms of PPR fantasy points were wide receivers, Adams and Hill included, with both of them pacing among the 10 best.
Cooper Kupp (439.5 PPR fantasy points) delivered a historic, top-10-all-time fantasy season. Deebo Samuel gave us one of history's most impressive dual-threat, top-three-at-his-position seasons (339.0). Justin Jefferson (330.4) and Ja'Marr Chase (304.6) broke through as top-shelf receiving talents, with Jefferson delivering the position's second-most points (197.7) during the season's second half and Chase managing one of the best single-game performances in history in Week 17 (55.6). Stefon Diggs, meanwhile, has managed the third- and seventh-most points at his position while working with the game's best fantasy quarterback in Josh Allen.
All five make every bit as compelling cases for top-five rankings at wide receiver as Adams or Hill does, and it's that depth at the top tier that weakens Adams' and Hill's candidacy. Kupp, Jefferson and Chase specifically possess both the recent production and situational stability necessary to strengthen their repeat cases, which is why you'll universally find them ranked top three among wide receivers. The less your league rewards for receptions -- think half-point PPR, especially -- the weaker the argument for anyone beneath those three making a case for first-round status.
For me, Adams' upside from his history with Carr gives him the much stronger case to be a first-round pick than Hill, in full-PPR scoring at least. But even then, I gauge the Kupp-Jefferson-Chase tier enough of a cut above -- and the importance of running backs as building blocks greater -- that the new Raiders receiver falls outside of my top 12 overall. Hill is more of a low-end second-round talent for me.