Fantasy football managers may have had concerns about how to evaluate Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for 2022 drafts even before the league suspended him for the first six games of the upcoming season for violating the policy on performance-enhancing substances. Hopkins is a future Hall of Famer and fifth among active wide receivers in receiving yards, but his age-29 season was frustrating for all, as the once-durable star not only missed seven games, but he saw diminished performance when he did play, falling short of 50 catches and failing to reach 100 receiving yards in any contest.
Hopkins dealt with multiple injuries, including a torn MCL in December that ended his season, and five other Cardinals caught more passes than his 42. The organization claims Hopkins is physically right on schedule for training camp, which is awesome, but even if things go well, we know he will miss the first six games of the season. Six games is not nothing. It is more than one-third of the NFL regular season and fantasy managers are, to be blunt, not the most patient lot. Even if we presume Hopkins returns to full health and past statistical greatness, which may be a reach, his first game will not be before Week 7 against the New Orleans Saints.
Based on name value alone, Hopkins was likely to be held in generously fond regard by fantasy managers for summer drafts, as many would expect a return to WR1 performance. Can this still be true if he cannot debut until late October? Well, no, there must be a draft-day discount, and while the clarity of knowing when Hopkins can play is nice, it is tough to evaluate if 11 games (remember, they play a 17-game season now) of one receiver makes him more valuable on draft day than a full season of lesser options. Bye weeks begin in Week 6. Other wide receivers will get hurt, too. This is what makes Hopkins one of the tougher players to rank for this season.
ESPN fantasy writers have initially settled on Hopkins as the No. 40 wide receiver for drafts, perhaps an eighth- or ninth-round selection, though that figure will be considerably better in standard league ADP. Hey, he's DeAndre Hopkins! Sure, he didn't help many fantasy managers in 2021, but he has been doing so since coming out of Clemson in 2013. One bad season, but he's back to full health now, right? Well, perhaps. And to those who do draft him, you will have to be patient. Remember, any suspended player is not eligible to be placed in an IR spot within the ESPN fantasy game, so Hopkins must occupy a bench spot. Still hopeful?
Regardless, the Hopkins situation is far from the lone conundrum when it comes to how to draft certain players. Here are others whose values are a bit difficult to quantify in our rankings.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers: The third pick of the 2021 draft, Lance started two games his rookie season, enticing fantasy managers with his exquisite running ability while worrying others with his inaccurate arm. Some see Lance as an emerging fantasy superstar in the Kyler Murray mold, while others wonder if he can hold a starting role at all. We just need to see him play!
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers: This one deserves an entire column to be provided later, but put simply, McCaffrey's skills warrant attention as one of the top picks in every draft, perhaps the very first pick. However, nobody should ignore the major durability issues, either. McCaffrey played in 10 of 33 games the past two seasons. Many will opt for lesser-talented options more likely to stay on the field.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants: Barkley entered the 2021 season viewed much like McCaffrey, but then he ruined the goodwill with a dispiriting season in which he surpassed 100 yards from scrimmage in just two of 13 games and scored four touchdowns. Whether due to physical limitations or the underwhelming talent around him, Barkley struggled mightily, and while some will unilaterally trust him as an RB1, many others wonder if he can return to the level of fantasy superstar.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: A first-round pick in 2021, Etienne missed his first season after suffering a Lisfranc injury. New coach Doug Pederson figures to rely heavily on a healthy Etienne as both runner and receiver out of the backfield, but we have little clarity on the hierarchy with incumbent James Robinson, too. And let's just say the Jaguars' offense struggled last season, so it might be hard to trust any of their options.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets: The first running back chosen in the 2022 draft went to a team with promising Michael Carter already in place, so perhaps there is a timeshare pending. Hall thrived at Iowa State, and fantasy managers would love to believe he is this year's version of the Steelers' Najee Harris, who emerged as a fantasy star right away with little backfield competition, but Hall has competition. Most rookie running backs offer little clarity on immediate production.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints: Arguably the fantasy MVP in 2019, Thomas played in only seven unproductive games in 2020 because of ankle injuries and then he missed the entire 2021 season. The Saints expect him healthy this fall, but fantasy managers cannot view him as a top-20 option without seeing him produce first. Whether Thomas can return to fantasy relevance is one of the bigger questions this season, but some managers will simply trust Thomas because of his huge 2019 season.
Allen Robinson II, WR, Los Angeles Rams: Robinson managed to overcome shoddy quarterback play for most of his career until last season, when things fell apart and fantasy managers generally gave up by midseason. Robinson bolted the Bears for the Super Bowl champs, and Matthew Stafford instantly becomes the best quarterback he has played with, leading to hope Robinson returns to WR2 production soon.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers: Multiple lower-leg injuries have derailed Kittle the past few seasons, but few tight ends can match his production on a per-game basis. Then again, most fantasy managers choose to roster only one tight end and struggle to find waiver-wire depth at the position, so this is not the same as investing in a brittle quarterback.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, free agent: Well, we could call this future Hall of Famer a likely member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers again, for with his buddy Tom Brady returning to active duty, it seems likely Brady's favorite tight end will follow. Or perhaps not. Gronkowski might take his time making a decision on his future. Fantasy managers might scoff, but even at age 32, Gronkowski finished behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in PPR fantasy points per game among tight ends during the 2021 season. If Gronkowski does not return, then our Cameron Brate ranking surely will change!