DK Metcalf has finished as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver in two straight seasons. The physical tools he brings to the position create both explosive-play opportunities and scoring upside in the red zone. We know that. But with Russell Wilson now out of Seattle, and Metcalf's current ADP sitting at WR17, how confident should you be in drafting the wide receiver in a Seahawks offense that is expected to take a step back in passing efficiency?
Metcalf's fantasy ceiling
It's the size/speed traits, the route structure and the red zone targets that boost Metcalf's ceiling -- even with a change at the quarterback position, as Geno Smith and Drew Lock will compete for the No. 1 job in camp.
Last season, 43.7% of Metcalf's routes run were verticals (go route, post, corner, deep over). And that number increased to 46.6% when Smith replaced an injured Wilson as the Seattle starter from Weeks 6 to 8. Isolation matchups or scripted throws to beat zone, which cater to Metcalf's vertical-stretch and matchup ability down the field.
We can look at the red zone here, too, where Metcalf caught 12 of 18 red zone targets last season, resulting in nine of his 12 touchdown grabs. Those are the fade balls, the slants or the quick outs where Seattle can get Metcalf on the move pre-snap. With his ability, it's stealing, really.
So, what about the quarterback change in '21? Yes, it's a very small sample of just three games, I get it. But it's still a sample. And over that stretch with Smith as the No. 1, Metcalf's fantasy production actually increased, as he averaged 17.2 PPR points per game (12.6 in non-PPR) from Weeks 6 to 8. That's up from the 13.8 and 9.4, respectively, he averaged in Wilson's 14 starts.
And again, Metcalf saw the ball in scoring position, catching three passes -- two for touchdowns -- on seven routes run inside the red zone with Smith under center. Want a comparison? Metcalf's teammate Tyler Lockett ran six red zone routes in the same stretch of games ... and didn't see a single target. Metcalf is going to see the ball here, with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron scheming one-on-ones based on formation and alignment.
The explosive plays, scoring upside and target volume on underneath throws -- speed outs, crossers, more -- make Metcalf a WR2 target. And because of those rare physical tools, Metcalf has a ceiling of a WR1, with even more upside in non-PPR formats.
Metcalf's fantasy floor
Metcalf's floor is a little more concerning, given his dependency on touchdown receptions and the possibility he produces as an inconsistent splash player this season with Smith or Lock running the offense over the course of 17 weeks.
Metcalf caught a total of 12 touchdown passes in 2021, but he grabbed only four touchdowns over the final nine weeks of the season with Wilson back under center, which included a six-game stretch from Weeks 10 to 15 when he didn't find the end zone at all. Now, did Wilson's level of play drop? I think we can all agree he didn't put his best football on tape after coming back from his finger injury. But even with a less-efficient Wilson, which is still an upgrade over Smith or Lock, Metcalf was an up-and-down fantasy player.
Think about this when looking at the fantasy scoring with Metcalf from last season. He posted four games of 20 or more points in non-PPR leagues but had nine games below 10 points. Even in PPR formats, Metcalf posted fewer than 12 points in eight of 17 games last season.
Plus, we can't have a discussion about Metcalf without acknowledging the run-game approach in Seattle. That is a foundational piece of this offense. Heavy volume on the ground there. Last season, Seattle averaged 22.2 rushing attempts per game with Wilson as the starter. In those three weeks when Smith ran the offense, the average rushing attempts per game climbed to 26.6. And I really think the latter number is more indicative of what we can expect from the Seahawks this season with Smith or Lock taking the snaps.
What we are saying here is that Metcalf's floor is much lower than his projected ceiling. And that creates a real conflict for fantasy managers on draft day when it comes to his current ADP and the season-long projections.
Should you bet on Metcalf in 2022?
In PPR formats, I don't love Metcalf's current ADP of WR17. I think that's a little rich given the offensive philosophy in Seattle, plus a quarterback competition between Smith and Lock that doesn't really move the needle. That could be some roller coaster QB play there.
However, in the non-PPR leagues I play in, Metcalf is still on my fantasy radar. He's currently WR13 in my non-PPR rankings. That's where I would invest draft capital in the wide receiver given the matchup tools, explosive-play traits and scoring ability. That's the upside for me, knowing that Waldron and Seattle can dial up shot-play concepts and use Metcalf as an end zone target in both the strike zone/red zone area of the field.
Overall with Metcalf, bet on the traits ... and roll with the down weeks. Because even with Wilson out of the mix, Metcalf can still play a role as a big-play target whose physical style helps him win in the red zone. In non-PPR, he can give you viable WR2 numbers with breakout-game potential.