Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Las Vegas Raiders). The Raiders defense has had its moments this season, including their Week 1 overtime win over the Baltimore Ravens during which Maxx Crosby had three sacks and Carl Nassib had a critical sack and forced fumble that set up the winning touchdown, their five-sack Week 6 win against the Denver Broncos, and the overall consistency of Denzel Perryman, who leads the league with 65 solo tackles. Recently, however, this unit has struggled. Their 385.5 average yards allowed the past five weeks is the league's third-most behind only the New York Jets (472.5) and Atlanta Falcons (388.0), and during that same time span this defense has surrendered a league-worst 11 passing touchdowns. During that time, Teddy Bridgewater totaled 18.26 fantasy points against them (Week 6), almost all of them coming via the pass, Jalen Hurts scored 17.44-of-23.54 points on pass attempts (Week 7) and Patrick Mahomes just dropped 36.24 points on this defense in Week 10.
The bye week seemed to come at a perfect time for Burrow, who scored a season-worst 7.38 fantasy points in Week 9 heading into his rest week, not to mention seven interceptions in his final five games before it. Perhaps he'll come back refreshed, and closer to the quarterback who scored 20-plus fantasy points four times from Weeks 4-8. This matchup certainly makes the task easier.
Unfavorable matchup: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (versus Green Bay Packers). From a matchups perspective, the Vikings draw the Packers' defense at completely the wrong time. In the past three weeks, the Packers have held a trio of MVP-caliber quarterback talents in check: Kyler Murray scored 9.06 fantasy points on 33 passing and six rushing attempts in Week 8, Patrick Mahomes scored 10.44 points on 37 passing and two rushing attempts in Week 9 and Russell Wilson scored 5.64 points on 40 passing and five rushing attempts in Week 10. In fact, since Jameis Winston totaled 29.62 fantasy points against the Packers in the season's opening week, the Packers have held quarterbacks to an average of 10.50 fantasy points on pass attempts in nine games, and it's important in this example to extract the passing-only outputs considering how infrequently Cousins runs (16 attempts all year). Cousins had a relatively productive Week 10 facing a challenging matchup in itself, but the Packers' defensive play recently rates as a step above that of the Los Angeles Chargers, who have dealt with various bumps and bruises on defense of late.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets). As mentioned in the quarterbacks section, the Jets' defense has utterly collapsed of late, but especially so against running backs. In merely the past four weeks, the Jets have seen seven different running backs score 15-plus PPR fantasy points against them, and in seven of their nine games so far, their opponents' combined backfields have scored 30-plus points. To compare, two defenses haven't seen a single opponent total 30 points from their running backs all year (Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans), and only one other team has seen opponents do so in even half of their games (the Philadelphia Eagles, who have had it done to them in 5-of-10 contests).
The case against Gaskin begins and ends with his variable week-over-week usage, but in his defense, he has had 15-plus touches in four straight weeks, averaging 18.8 during that time. He has the ability to do extensive damage as both a runner and receiver, too, and this is the kind of matchup that provides multiple paths to a huge score.
Unfavorable matchup: David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (versus Baltimore Ravens). The Bengals might've embarrassed the Ravens in their final game before the Week 8 bye, winning by a 41-17 margin, but in the Ravens' two games since their week of rest, they've looked like the dominating rushing defense that has earned them the reputation of the 21st century's best unit. The leading backs that faced this defense in those games were the aforementioned Gaskin (Week 9) and Dalvin Cook (Week 10), who combined for 20.7 PPR fantasy points on 36 total touches, with the duo stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on 6-of-31 rushing attempts. Montgomery enjoyed a healthy enough workload in his Week 9 return from a knee injury, playing 84% of the offensive snaps (49-of-58), attempting 13 rushes and running 19 routes, but he also fell prey to a comparably tough matchup in that game, scoring only 7.5 PPR fantasy points against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (versus New Orleans Saints). My, how quickly things change in the NFL. At one point, drawing cornerback Marshon Lattimore in coverage meant certain disaster to opposing wide receivers. In the past five weeks, however, Lattimore has struggled to contain the position, surrendering 16 catches for 325 yards and three touchdowns on 22 targets. DK Metcalf beat him for an 84-yard touchdown in Week 7, and a week later, Mike Evans snuck past him for a 41-yard score. Additionally, Lattimore has underperformed when matched up with lesser receivers -- Cyril Grayson and Olamide Zaccheaus also capitalized upon the cornerback's mistakes to score touchdowns during that time span -- which is important here, considering the Eagles' tendency to shuffle Smith and Jalen Reagor on the perimeter. Don't be afraid of this matchup, and in fact, the numbers say that it's one that should be freely exploited.
Unfavorable matchup: DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks). Here's another example of the quick-shifting nature of the NFL. Through five weeks, the Seahawks' defense allowed a league-high 450.8 total yards, including 321.6 and nine total touchdowns on completed passes, shaping up as one of the most all-around fantasy friendly in the league. In four games since, however, this defense has allowed only 245.3 yards and three touchdowns on passing plays, and not a single individual wide receiver has reached the 20-point PPR fantasy plateau against it. Granted, Aaron Rodgers' missed practice time contributed, but Davante Adams scored only 14.8 PPR fantasy points on 11 targets against these Seahawks in Week 10. That's due in large part to the play of cornerbacks Tre Brown and D.J. Reed, the individual matchups Hopkins will most often see, who have combined to allow only 22 catches for 242 yards and zero scores on 42 targets in the past five weeks.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (at Philadelphia Eagles). A popular preseason sleeper, Trautman flopped during the season's first two months, failing to exceed 6.3 PPR fantasy points in any game through Week 7 while totaling 13 targets in that time. In three games since, however, he has seen at least six targets in each and scored a combined 19.3 points. Trautman's rising usage, especially in combination with Trevor Siemian's installation as the quarterback, gives some hope that he can capitalize on his softer matchups.
This one qualifies: If you know the Eagles' passing defense, you know that cornerback Darius Slay represents its strongest link, and that opponents prefer to lean on their tight ends in order to attempt to avoid him in coverage. In just the past five weeks, the Eagles have seen eight different tight ends score 10-plus PPR fantasy points against them, while seeing 48 total tight end targets and an average of 2.47 PPR fantasy points per target from the position, both most in the league.
Unfavorable matchup: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (versus New Orleans Saints). Across the field, Goedert doesn't have it at all easy from a matchups perspective, especially considering the previous section's note about the beneficial matchup for Eagles wide receivers. The Saints are the only team in the league that hasn't had a tight end score 10-plus PPR fantasy points against them, and while they haven't faced a lot of elite names, it's still telling that they have limited the position to a league-low 1.27 PPR fantasy points for the season. Take Kyle Pitts' Week 9 as an example: He saw seven targets on his 24 routes, one of them in the red zone, and caught only three passes for a total of 9.2 PPR fantasy points.
Goedert sees enough targets to generally vie for TE1 status most weeks, but this isn't the kind of matchup designed to propel him firmly into that class for Week 11.