Offensive and defensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot, we break down matchups in the trenches and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion is our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To this point, we've used the differential between the win rates to determine the best matchup. But from this point forward, we're switching it up: We're simply going to highlight the players facing the weakest -- and strongest -- defensive win rate teams. The reason being, at this stage of the season, the blocking that a running back is getting from his offensive line is baked into our perception of them. What changes week to week is the defense. Think of it like a receiver who catches passes from the same QB every game but each week is squaring off against a different corner.
Below we break down the NFL Week 11 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense each team is up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous run blocking matchups
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (at Vikings)
Packers' run block win rate rank: eighth
Vikings' run stop win rate rank: 32nd
What a soft, soft landing spot for Dillon as he takes over for an injured Aaron Jones. The Vikings are mighty friendly to opposing running backs, with the worst run stop win rate in the league and an average of 4.6 yards per designed carry allowed, the seventh highest in the league.
If David Bakhtiari were to return this week, that would only further the boost Dillon gets -- Bakhtiari ranked first among all tackles in run block win rate in 2019 and 10th in 2020.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at Chiefs)
Cowboys' run block win rate rank: fifth
Chiefs' run stop win rate rank: 31st
Elliott is on an incredible string of facing weak rush defenses. He played the Vikings (RSWR rank: 32nd), Broncos (29th), Falcons (27th) and now the Chiefs (31st). While not every one of those resulted in an offensive explosion, he did hit double-digit points in all three of those contests (and had two touchdowns last week against the Falcons).
Dallas' offensive line is in the top 10 in RBWR at tackle, guard and center, while the Chiefs are a bottom-10 team at both edge and the interior stopping the run. Elliott should have a nice day ahead.
Disadvantageous run blocking matchups
Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles backfield (vs. Saints)
Eagles' run block win rate rank: third
Saints' run stop win rate rank: first
Rushing is at the core of the Eagles' offense. The unit ranks third in EPA per play on the ground and is efficient both with Hurts and other backs running the ball. But in Week 11, the Eagles are running into a juggernaut in the Saints, with Cameron Jordan -- No. 1 in run stop win rate at edge -- leading the way.
This isn't a situation where the advanced metrics are out on an island, either. The Saints are, incredibly, allowing just 2.85 yards per designed carry this season. That's the lowest in the league by a mile -- the Bucs are next lowest at 3.58.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at Seahawks)
Cardinals' run block win rate rank: 21st
Seahawks' run stop win rate rank: second
The strength of Seattle's run stop unit is up the middle, with Al Woods and Bryan Mone both clocking in in the top 13 in RSWR.
But this is a more interesting question than just the win rates, because Seattle has been a very lucrative team for opposing running backs in fantasy. Running backs have scored the second-most points against Seattle in PPR scoring. And yet, here we are, with Seattle listed as one of the best run stop win rate teams in the league.
The reality is we know a lot more goes into fantasy scoring than just an opponent's ability to stop the run. There's game script (and Seattle has done a lot of losing), how a team lines up, who you play and RB production in the passing game. I'd just bank on Seattle being a worse matchup going forward than it has been, because the underlying win rates are quite strong.
Advantageous pass matchups
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Giants)
Buccaneers' pass block win rate rank: 16th
Giants' pass rush win rate rank: 32nd
Tom Brady? Against zero pass rush? Sign me up.
The Giants' defense isn't actually terrible overall, but their pass rush win rate is virtually nonexistent, despite a roughly league average blitz rate. They don't have a single player with at least 50 win or loss plays with a pass rush win rate over 11%. No one who qualifies for our leaderboard is even in double digits.
Leonard Williams, Azeez Ojulari, Lorenzo Carter, Oshane Ximines ... none of them are special. And that means Brady should have plenty of time to work and put up fantasy points on Monday night.
Baker Mayfield, Browns (vs. Lions)
Browns' pass block win rate rank: first
Lions' pass rush win rate rank: 31st
Look at those ranks!
This sets up perfectly as a bounce-back spot for the Cleveland offense. The Lions now boast not just the worst ranked defensive tackle in pass rush win rate but the two worst defensive tackles in pass rush win rate -- Michael Brockers and Nick Williams. That's hard to pull off! And they'll be battling some of the best interior linemen in the game in Joel Bitonio, JC Tretter and Wyatt Teller.
Disadvantageous pass blocking matchups
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at Browns)
Lions' pass block win rate rank: 24th
Browns' pass rush win rate rank: second
Cleveland is coming off a shockingly poor pass-rushing performance against the Patriots, but there's no reason to overweight that last game: This team is still elite at disrupting the passer. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are generating wins off the edge, and Malik McDowell comes in at 10th in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles.
The mismatch here is Clowney vs. rookie Penei Sewell, who has struggled all year. However, last week Sewell moved over to right tackle and played great, so it's worth keeping an eye on his play over there.
Trevor Siemian, New Orleans Saints (at Eagles)
Saints' pass block win rate rank: third
Eagles' pass rush win rate rank: third
What a matchup in the trenches!
Our win rates have loved Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat and Derek Barnett all year. But the Saints are well equipped to handle it.
Both tackles -- Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst -- rank in the top three (!!!) in pass block win rate at the position, both guards (Calvin Throckmorton and Cesar Ruiz) are in the top 15 there, and Erik McCoy is fifth in PBWR at center. In other words: It's a tough matchup, but Siemian should still be well protected.
Sack watch
Justin Houston, Baltimore Ravens (at Bears)
In the midst of a disappointing Baltimore defense, Houston is putting in a nice season at age 32. Though he has just three sacks, he ranks in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. The sack total might well increase this week, as he faces Justin Fields, who has the highest sack rate in the league. Chicago's offensive line isn't terrible, but that's basically irrelevant given Fields' propensity to take sacks, which dates back to college.
Markus Golden, Arizona Cardinals (at Seahawks)
Neither of Arizona's top two pass-rushers -- Golden and Chandler Jones -- actually has a great win rate despite 15 sacks between them. But I'm picking Golden here because of whom he's facing: Russell Wilson and his 8% sack rate. Why Golden over Jones? Brandon Shell and Duane Brown, the Seahawks' two tackles, have almost identical win rates. But Brown has a longer history of being a good blocker, so I lean toward Shell's opponent -- who will mostly be Golden.