Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Kansas City Chiefs). He's had an erratic year, twice scoring 24-plus fantasy points but twice finishing beneath 12, and that his performance has followed an erratic pattern when contrasted against his matchups makes him a difficult quarterback to trust. Still, Carr possesses top-12 passing ability, he has a healthy Darren Waller back in the lineup, and he displayed good chemistry with Hunter Renfrow in Week 9. Not to mention that from an opportunity basis, he could've had a huge point total by merely cleaning up some of his mistakes (two interceptions, one lost fumble). Carr isn't typically a mistake-prone quarterback -- his 1.8% interception rate since the beginning of 2019 is noticeably better than the league average in that time (2.2%) -- so this matchup represents quite the bounce-back scenario.
The Chiefs have played better defense against quarterbacks in recent weeks, affording the position a 11.31 fantasy point average in their past four games, but their Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season is 4.0 and in the past five weeks is 3.2, and Carr, in my opinion, is the most talented individual this defense will have faced since Josh Allen in Week 5. Carr, by the way, had oodles of success against the rival Chiefs in their two 2020 meetings, scoring a combined 44.88 fantasy points via the pass on 62 attempts.
Unfavorable matchup: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (at Los Angeles Chargers). Like Carr, Cousins' 2021 weekly fantasy point totals don't fall perfectly in line with his matchups. His second-best point total, 25.26 in Week 2, came against an Arizona Cardinals defense that grades top-eight against the position, while his season-low of 10.12 points in Week 4 came against the Cleveland Browns, who have hovered near the middle of the pack all year. This matchup, however, is one of the toughest that Cousins will face all year -- only the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16 seems likely to be as tough or tougher -- and his week-over-week inconsistency of late lowers his appeal to that of a mid-range QB2.
The Chargers held Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones and Jalen Hurts to a combined 40.14 fantasy points, 27.84 of which came on passing plays, which is where Cousins does almost all of his damage. They're also much tougher against wide receivers (minus-2.8 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added the past five weeks) than tight ends (plus-0.3 Adjusted FPA), which doesn't suit Cousins' array of receivers or target tendencies especially well.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (at New York Jets). With Moss having exited Week 9 early due to entering the league's concussion protocol, there's some question as to the Bills' backfield breakdown heading into Week 10. Should Moss be cleared in time to play, however, he's my preference between the two, the Bills having shown a preference for him in scoring position, evidenced by his taking 61-of-128 running back snaps in the red zone (48%) and 28-of-55 in goal-to-go situations (51%), compared to Singletary's 26% and 20% rates in those scenarios.
That's important, considering the Jets have afforded the position nine touchdowns on 26 goal-to-go rushing attempts for the season, not to mention have seen a league-high 12 individual running backs score 15-plus PPR fantasy points against them -- and no other team has seen more than nine reach that plateau. Just in the past three weeks, the Jets have seen three different running backs - Damien Harris (Week 7), Joe Mixon (Week 8) and Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines (Week 9) -- score 20-plus points against them, and the latter duo's success bodes extremely well for both Bills running backs being able to make an impact facing this matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts). A bruised heel cost Robinson Week 9, and while there's optimism that he will suit up for this Sunday's game, the matchup suggests that he might struggle to make an immediate impact upon his return.
The Colts have given opposing running backs headaches all season, with the best illustration being that Derrick Henry, whose 24.2 PPR fantasy points per game average is easily the league's best, totaled 24.7 points on a whopping 56 rushing attempts against them. Along with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Colts are one of two teams to have not had a running back score 20 PPR fantasy points against them, and that's despite the position averaging a near-league-average 21.1 rushing attempts per game against them. Robinson scored only 10.0 PPR fantasy points against the Colts in Week 1 of last season, a game in which he played 66% of the offensive snaps and had 16 of the team's 21 rushing attempts. He'll need to be at full strength to be even a mid-range RB2 against this defense.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins). The Dolphins' cornerbacks had a solid Week 9, holding Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and Danny Amendola to a combined 25.0 PPR fantasy points on 25 targets, but from Weeks 5-8, this defense saw six different wide receivers score 15-plus points against it. Bateman has an 18% target share in his three games since activation for a team that has averaged an effectively league average 36.7 pass attempts during that time, so he should find plenty of opportunities to rack up points on Thursday Night Football.
Sunday pick: Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints (at Tennessee Titans). The Titans continue to struggle containing opposing wide receivers, affording a league-most 47.2 PPR fantasy points per game to the position for the season, and a second-most 43.9 points in merely the past five weeks, continuing to serve as the weak link in an otherwise productive defense of late.
Callaway's fantasy appeal seemingly suffered with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston, but keep in mind that Callaway managed a pair of end zone looks in Trevor Siemian's first start in Week 9, converting one for a 5-yard score in what was a 10.0-point day. He's more risk/reward than many of the receivers in the WR3 tier or better, but this matchup says he's worth your start.
Unfavorable matchup: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (versus Philadelphia Eagles). Darius Slay, the Eagles' standout cornerback, has been a nightmare matchup for opposing wide receivers, at least those who line up mostly on the perimeter as Sutton typically does. Since Tyreek Hill scored 47.6 PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 4, here's what Slay's primary opponent has done: DJ Moore scored 8.8 points (Week 5), Mike Evans scored 4.7 (Week 6), Henry Ruggs III scored 7.1 (Week 7), Kalif Raymond was shut out (Week 8) and Mike Williams scored 7.8 (Week 9).
Sutton should rotate around the formation somewhat, meaning fellow perimeter receiver Tim Patrick might see Slay occasionally in coverage, but this looks like the kind of game where Jerry Jeudy, who has run 35-of-48 routes out of the slot in two games since his return to the lineup, is the team's most appealing choice. It's also a dream matchup for tight end Noah Fant, assuming he's cleared to return from the COVID-19 injured list, as the Eagles struggle mightily against that position.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts). He has seen a huge expansion in his role since his trade to the Jaguars, but especially in the team's two weeks since the bye, during which Arnold leads the entire team with 24.8 PPR fantasy points and a 23% target share while playing 66% of the offensive snaps. He's a massive target near the goal line, at 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds, and that's important in this matchup, as the Colts have been simply awful at containing tight ends in the red zone, with the position combining to catch 10-of-11 targets for six touchdowns in those situations. Sure, the Colts are more known for their recent struggles against wide receivers, and it's definitely true that Marvin Jones Jr. and Jamal Agnew match up quite well against this defenses, but they've been pretty bad against all receiver types. Trevor Lawrence's tendency to spread the ball around gives Arnold just as good a chance to shine as it does any of his receivers.
Unfavorable matchup: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Denver Broncos). Few defenses have been as stingy against opposing tight ends as the Broncos. Their minus-3.9 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season is third-fewest, as is their minus-5.4 in the category merely in the past five weeks, and this is a defense that held Mark Andrews (11.7 PPR fantasy points, Week 4) and Darren Waller (10.9, Week 6) in check despite what were 20% target shares in those games. Just last week, Dalton Schultz, fifth in PPR fantasy points for the season entering the game (with a 12.6 point average), managed only five targets and 9.4 points against these Broncos.
Goedert does have a team-leading 41% target share the past two weeks, but that's also inflated by the fact that Jalen Hurts attempted only 31 passes combined in those games. Hurts' passing problems, coupled with this matchup, make Goedert only a borderline TE1.