Offensive and defensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot, we break down matchups in the trenches and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion is our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To this point, we've used the differential between the win rates to determine the best matchups. But from this point forward, we're switching it up: We're simply going to highlight the players facing the weakest -- and strongest -- defensive win rate teams. The reason being, at this stage of the season, the blocking that a running back is getting from his offensive line is baked into our perception of performance. What changes week to week is the defense. Think of it like a receiver who catches passes from the same quarterback every game but each week is squaring off against a different corner.
Below, we break down the NFL Week 10 games, identifying the most and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense each team is up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous run block matchups
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Vikings)
Ravens run block win rate rank: 27th
Vikings run stop win rate rank: 32nd
Folks, it's mea culpa time.
The headline of our preseason run-blocking work was that the Chargers had improved so much along the offensive line that they were a top-5 run blocking unit. Well nine weeks in I can report... they are not. Their two big additions have failed to buoy the Chargers' ground game: Corey Linsley ranks a very disappointing 24th in RBWR among centers, and Bryan Bulaga (back) has played in just one game this season.
The good news is that that hasn't stopped Ekeler from producing -- he's the No. 3 scoring running back this season -- and the Chargers catch a break this week against the Vikings. That has little to no bearing on expectations for his receiving game, but it could mean a particularly productive game on the ground for him.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Chiefs)
Raiders run block win rate rank: 30th
Chiefs run stop win rate rank: 31st
Considering the offensive line in front of him, Jacobs hasn't been bad for those that roster him in fantasy when he's been on the field. The Raiders offensive line is a weakness across the board, and even their best lineman -- left tackle Kolton Miller -- is a liability in the run game despite his strengths in pass protection.
But if we're looking for a major breakthrough game this very well could be it: the Chiefs defense is weak, as we've seen all year. The Chiefs defense is not just weak at stopping the run, it's weak all over. Which means the Raiders certainly should have their opportunities to score points. As long as Las Vegas doesn't fall too far behind it sets up nicely for Jacobs.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (at Cardinals)
Panthers run block win rate rank: 26th
Cardinals run stop win rate rank: 30th
It speaks volumes that the Arizona defense can be as good as it is -- 2nd in expected points added per play -- and also have such a weak run defense. It's pass defense that counts, folks! But in fantasy, it all matters.
And if you're the Panthers, with McCaffrey back, surely the running game is the place where you feel like you can win against this defense. Chandler Jones and Markus Golden may be great pass rushers but they're both well below average in run stop win rate.
Disadvantageous run block matchups
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Rams)
49ers run block win rate rank: 24th
Rams run stop win rate rank: 1st
There are currently 67 qualifying players run stop win rate at defensive tackle. The Rams have four in the top 18: Sebastian Joseph-Day (2nd), Greg Gaines (8th), A'Shawn Robinson (10th) and Aaron Donald (18th). So yeah, even though Joseph-Day is now on IR, they're still a problem for opposing rushers.
And the 49ers run blocking is about to take a little hit, too. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is out for the season with a torn quad, and he'd been playing fairly well in the run game too: he ranked 24th out of 69 qualifiers at tackle in RBWR.
Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols, Tennessee Titans (vs. Saints)
Titans run block win rate rank: 23rd
Saints run stop win rate rank: 2nd
We wrote last week how it was going to be tough sledding for Peterson and McNichols taking over Derrick Henry because Henry made the Titans offensive line look better than it is. And indeed neither generated much yardage on the ground, those Peterson bailed out those who started him with a touchdown.
They get another tough matchup in Week 10: in contrast to the Rams the Saints' strength against the run is at edge, with Cameron Jordan ranking first among all edge players in RSWR.
Advantageous pass block matchups
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Lions)
Steelers block win rate rank: 30th
Lions pass rush win rate rank: 31st
Finally a breather for a struggling Steelers offensive line. The unit has predictably had issues, most notably at tackle with Dan Moore Jr. and Chukwuma Okorafor and center Kendrick Green, all of whom rank in the bottom five at their position in pass block win rate.
But the Lions don't have anyone that scares you pass rush wise -- Charles Harris is probably their best, a league average PRWR player at edge.
Perhaps Roethlisberger, who has by far the fastest average time to throw, will be able to take his time a little more in this one.
Disadvantageous pass block matchups
Mac Jones, New England Patriots (vs. Browns)
Patriots block win rate rank: 14th
Browns pass rush win rate rank: 1st
It's how to stress how dominant the Browns are in the trenches right now. Not only is Myles Garrett the pass rush win rate leader at edge (in addition to leading the league in sacks), but Jadeveon Clowney is second in the same category!
Add in that Malik McDowell is playing well and ranks seventh in PRWR at defensive tackle and, yes, the Browns pass rush is definitely going to be a problem for New England.
Sack watch
Josh Sweat, Philadephia Eagles (at Broncos)
Sweat is in concussion protocol so he may not play this week. But if he does, it's a great spot. Right tackle Bobby Massie will miss this game, so Sweat - who ranks third in pass rush win rate at edge in the league this season - will be facing a backup. And Teddy Bridgewater is taking sacks on 8.1% of dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate among qualifying quarterbacks in the league.
Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers (vs. Seahawks)
Russell Wilson being back is definitely good for the Seahawks. But it's also good for anyone trying to boost their sack numbers. Wilson's one big weakness is that while his ability to extend plays makes for some electric moments and is a net positive, it does sometimes result in sacks. I like Gary's chances of landing a sack the best because his pass rush win rate has slightly outpaced Preston Smith's, and Smith will be facing Duane Brown.
Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints (at Titans)
It's unclear as of this writing if Taylor Lewan will be available to play, but if not Davenport would likely be in line to face Bobby Hart, who has been posting what would be a league-low pass block win rate at tackle if it qualified. Plus, Ryan Tannehill takes sacks at a high clip.