Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (versus Kansas City Chiefs). For a team that has played more than half its offensive snaps while trailing, the Titans have been a remarkably run-heavy offense, tying for the league lead in rush attempts (194) and possessing the sixth-largest percentage of runs (47%). That -- and Derrick Henry's record pace of 459 rushing attempts -- is unsustainable, and a matchup with the high-octane Chiefs offense, tied for the offensive touchdown lead (23) and ranks second with 2,601 yards, is an ideal place for the focus to shift to Tannehill.
Sure, Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team slumped facing this very matchup, but Tannehill brings superior skills to the table, ranking QB8 in fantasy points per game (20.64) since taking over as the Titans' starter in Week 7 of 2019 (minimum 16 starts). Weeks 3-5 set the template for this matchup: Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen averaged 37.3 pass attempts and 25.77 fantasy points on those pass attempts alone. Tannehill could also thrive in another regard facing the Chiefs, while he hasn't shown it much in 2021, he has been excellent on play-action with the Titans, his 9.40 fantasy points per game average as their starter second-best among quarterbacks. The Chiefs, by comparison, have the league's second-worst completion percentage (77.6%) and third-worst yards per attempt average (11.2) on play-action.
Unfavorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore Ravens). Weeks with six teams on bye, especially those that sideline top-10-to-date fantasy quarterbacks Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, are tough ones in which to make "sit" cases. Case in point: Burrow is my QB11 for Week 7, though that still means he's a definite sit for me for superior matchups plays like Tannehill, Matt Ryan and Tua Tagovailoa, and it's primarily because Burrow draws the worst matchup of any top-12 quarterback.
That's not to say it's a stifling matchup, as the Ravens' problem on defense this season has been uneven play, exhibited by Derek Carr dropping 24 fantasy points on them in Week 1, with almost all of those coming on passes, but Justin Herbert managing a mere 11.00 against them in Week 6. The Ravens blitz nearly as often as any team -- their 81 blitzes are third-most -- and have recorded multiple sacks in five games. While Burrow has performed well under pressure thus far -- his 8.43 fantasy points per game when blitzed ranks second at the position -- he's still mistake-prone. If your league penalizes harshly for turnovers, tread carefully.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons (at Miami Dolphins). Darrell Henderson Jr. and his matchup against the Detroit Lions is the obvious matchups choice for Week 6, but Davis is the one that isn't garnering nearly enough attention. That's perhaps a result of Cordarrelle Patterson's emergence, and Patterson is certainly an outstanding -- and top-10 -- play in his own right, but Davis has been plenty involved to similarly exploit the matchup, having played 66% of the Falcons' offensive snaps, managed a 50% rushing time share and gotten five-of-seven goal-to-go rushing attempts. When game flow favors the Falcons, Davis receives plenty of play, and that's likely to remain the case against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins, incidentally, have been serving up plenty of productive fantasy scores to lesser known backs, as Devin Singletary (17.1 PPR points) and Zack Moss (15.4) each managed at least 15 points against them in Week 2, Peyton Barber scored 23.2 in Week 3 and Leonard Fournette totaled 21.0 points in Week 5. There's an excellent chance that both Patterson and Davis can deliver 15-plus against this defense, so both make strong cases for top-15 positional status.
Unfavorable matchup: Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (versus Indianapolis Colts). He returned from a shoulder injury in Week 5, had a bye week, and now has Jimmy Garoppolo under center, which is a good thing considering Trey Lance absorbed 16 of the 49ers' 28 rushing attempts in Mitchell's return to the lineup. Still, who's to say that Garoppolo's return will lead to significantly better things for the offense, especially with a below-average matchup ahead in the Colts? This is a defense that held Derrick Henry to a mere 19.4 PPR fantasy points on 31 touches in Week 3, and it has afforded opposing running backs only 0.43 points per rushing attempt for the season. Mitchell should see enough touches to be a viable RB2, but he's also lacking in upside.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee Titans). No defense has surrendered more PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Titans, and their 302.9 allowed, in fact, is more than 25 full points more than the next-closest defense (Washington, 277.6). The Titans have struggled against opposing slot receivers, surrendering a league-high 142.7 points to them.
That still leaves a lot of damage done by those on the perimeter, not to mention that it has actually been many of the opposing WR2s and WR3s who have had the big games against this defense. That matters with Hardman, because while he gets some run out of the slot, that's typically Tyreek Hill's spot, and the Titans simply don't have the depth in the secondary to contain both. Here are some of the comparable secondary receivers who have stood out against this defense: Christian Kirk (24.0 PPR fantasy points, Week 1), Cole Beasley (21.8, Week 6), Freddie Swain (21.0, Week 2), Jamison Crowder (19.1, Week 4).
Unfavorable matchup: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas Raiders). He's another player who would be tough to sit, but also one whose matchup pulls him beneath the WR2 tier in fantasy. Smith has been the Eagles' clear No. 1 target, playing 91% of the offensive snaps with a 22.0% target share, but that has also amounted to only the 39th-best PPR fantasy point total (67.5) among wideouts, and he has seemingly fallen into the hands of his matchups thus far.
The Raiders, unfortunately, bring one of the tougher ones, largely due to the play of cornerback Casey Hayward, who will probably line up across from Smith most often. Hayward has allowed only nine catches on 20 targets across 203 coverage snaps, with those going for 90 yards and no touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, the Raiders have afforded opposing WR1s only 1.60 PPR fantasy points per target, ninth-fewest in the league.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas Raiders). Smith's challenging matchup balances with Goedert's noticeably more favorable one, as the Raiders have had considerably more difficulty containing opposing tight ends than wide receivers. For the season, they have the seventh-fewest Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed to wide receivers (minus-3.3), but the fifth-most to tight ends (3.7), in large part because their linebackers have struggled in coverage. So far this season, Mike Gesicki (18.6 PPR fantasy points, Week 3), Jared Cook (19.0, Week 4) and Noah Fant (24.7, Week 6) have had big days against the Raiders' defense, and Goedert's usage should see an increase coming out of the bye following the trade of Zach Ertz. I see Jalen Hurts' keys to success being his mobility, but also how much he targets Goedert rather than his wide receivers.
Unfavorable matchup: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus Chicago Bears). He's a tough player to bench anytime he's cleared to play, especially in a week where fellow receiver Antonio Brown is likely to be on the injury report and a risk not to play. Still, in Gronkowski's probable return to the lineup, he has one of the tougher matchups ahead, not to mention he might play limited snaps as he works himself back to full strength.
The Bears have afforded opposing tight ends the third-fewest PPR fantasy points per target (1.40), and they held T.J. Hockenson to 8.2 PPR fantasy points on eight targets in Week 4 and Darren Waller to 8.5 points on eight targets in Week 5. Roquan Smith has been especially tough on opposing tight ends, limiting them to a mere four catches for 55 yards and no scores on 32 coverage snaps.