Offensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To start the year, we leaned on projected versions of our win rates based on the players expected to play along the line of scrimmage for every offense and defense. Once games began, those preseason projections become our priors -- which we then updated with actual win rate data for every team. Now, with a decent sample of games played, we're going to simply use each team's actual 2021 win rates to determine mismatches.
Below we break down the Week 7 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (at Packers)
Washington run block win rate rank: 1st
Packers run stop win rate rank: 13th
Washington averaged a solid 4.9 yards per carry last week against Kansas City's weak run-stopping unit, but Antonio Gibson's 4.4 fantasy points were a major disappointment considering the extreme mismatch. The game got away from Washington in the second half and Gibson was banged up and played just 23 offensive snaps, too.
But here Washington is again on this list despite facing a much better run-stopping unit in Green Bay. That's because the Washington run-blocking game is so far and away ahead of everyone else that only a top defense would probably keep them off. The RBWR difference between Washington and the Eagles, who rank second in the category, is larger than the difference between the Eagles and the 22nd ranked team.
Rookie tackle Sam Cosmi missed last week and it would be a blow to Washington's ground game if he were out again. But center Chase Roullier leads his position in RBWR and guards Brandon Scherff and Ereck Flowers both rank in the top six at their position, so even if Washington is without Cosmi there's plenty of talent still there. Scherff has been injured as well, though it's possible he could be back this week.
Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams (vs. Lions)
Rams run block win rate rank: 6th
Lions run stop win rate rank: 28th
The Rams offensive line has been remarkable this season ... for its pass protection. But its blocking has been solid in the ground game, too. There's no run block win rate star here. Instead, all five players on the Rams' offensive line are above average for their position -- resulting in a high overall rank between them.
Henderson hasn't generated beyond what's been blocked for him this year: he has -5 rush yards over expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. But if he gets better blocking this week, that should still pick up his performance.
In facing Detroit the Rams get to play against the interior defender with the worst run stop win rate in the entire league: Nick Williams.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (vs. Chiefs)
Titans run block win rate rank: 22nd
Chiefs run stop win rate rank: 32nd
Woah now. Derrick Henry with a run blocking advantage in front of him? You've got my attention. One of the reasons why Henry is amazing is that he produces the way he does despite subpar offensive blocking: the Titans rank just 22nd in RBWR this season. And King Henry is still blowing up real and fantasy football games alike.
But on Sunday he gets the Chiefs, who have the worst run-stopping defense -- and maybe just defense -- in the league. The expected game script isn't ideal, but it's also hard to imagine the Titans moving away from Henry no matter the score. We can be even more confident than usual that Henry should feast this week.
Disadvantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Damien Harris, New England Patriots (vs. Jets)
Patriots run block win rate rank: 32nd
Jets run stop win rate rank: 4th
New England's offensive line has to be one of the bigger disappointments this season. There were high hopes for the group but they rank dead last in RBWR six weeks in. Isaiah Wynn ranks second-to-last among tackles in the category and Shaq Mason is in the bottom 10 -- though Mason has missed the last two weeks with an abdomen injury.
The Jets haven't been quite as dominant at stopping the run in the preseason as we expected, but they're still strong at beating opponents' run blocks.
These teams have already met this season and though Harris did rip off a 26-yard score in that game, he was held to 62 yards on 16 carries.
Michael Carter and Ty Johnson, New York Jets (at Patriots)
Patriots run block win rate rank: 31st
Jets run stop win rate rank: 11th
Hey, look at that! Neither team in this game looks great from a run-blocking perspective.
For the Jets: both tackles Morgan Moses and George Fant rank in the bottom 10 in run block win rate, both guards -- Greg Van Roten and Alijah-Vera Tucker -- rank in the bottom 15 in the metric, and center Connor McGovern is in the bottom 5 there, too. That's a pretty ugly combination. I guess it tracks that the Jets rank 30th in yards per carry at 3.6.
It's hard to trust any Jets running back right now.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Matthew Stafford, Rams (vs. Lions)
Rams pass block win rate rank: 2nd
Lions pass rush win rate rank: 30th
Our projected pass block win rate liked the Rams in the preseason, but not this much. We had them as the seventh-best pass protection group in football, but now they currently only trail Cleveland's elite unit.
Both veteran tackles -- Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein -- are in PBWR's top 10. Whitworth, by the way, is putting up stellar numbers at age 39! Guard David Edwards has been a contributor as well, ranking 16th at his position.
And just like in the run game, the Rams have drawn a very cushy assignment against the Lions in terms of pass protection. The Lions not only rank last in pass rush win rate, but they rank last while blitzing at about a league average rate. It's not great! With Romeo Okwara out for the season with an Achilles injury, the Lions best pass rusher is ... Charles Harris? He's about average for an edge rusher in PRWR this season. Ex-Ram Michael Brockers has the worst pass rush win rate at defensive tackle among all qualifiers.
Disadvantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Daniel Jones, Giants (vs. Panthers)
Giants pass block win rate rank: 27th
Panthers pass rush win rate rank: 1st
This could be a sack bonanza for Haason Reddick and Brian Burns against a porous Giants' offensive line that protects a sack-happy quarterback in Daniel Jones. To make matters worse from a pass protection standpoint: the Giants placed left tackle Andrew Thomas on IR Tuesday, meaning Matt Peart will probably start in his stead.
Thomas has recorded an 87% pass block win rate -- league average for a tackle -- so far this season. Peart, in limited playing time, has posted an 81% PBWR, which would rank him in the bottom 10 at the position if he qualified. Right tackle Nate Solder has also been below average, ranking 51st out of 67 qualifiers at tackle.
Derek Carr, Raiders (vs. Eagles)
Raiders pass block win rate rank: 23rd
Eagles pass rush win rate rank: 4th
Raiders rookie Alex Leatherwood not only ranks last among all tackles in pass block win rate, but he also is tied for the league lead for most accepted penalties against him, with seven. He's been moved inside to guard, but remains below average there.
The good news for the Raiders is that with Leatherwood on the right side of the line still, he'll mostly avoid the best part of the Eagles' pass rush: Javon Hargrave (who plays defensive tackle but more often against left side of line) and Derek Barnett, who quietly is in the top 10 in pass rush win rate at edge. Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller has been solid on that side, ranking 12th in PBWR.
Sack Watch
Haason Reddick and Brian Burns, Panthers (at Giants)
I mentioned it above but a better sack situation is hard to imagine. We're talking about two strong pass rushers facing off against a two below-average-at-best tackles in Solder and Peart with Jones behind them. Jones has actually been much better in the sack rate department (just 5.1%) but his career mark of 7.5% still makes him, I think, a sack target.
Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, Buccaneers (vs. Bears)
Justin Fields' 14% (!!!) sack rate this season really cannot be ignored. Even if we remove that Week 3 disaster against the Browns when he was sacked nine times, Fields' sack rate is still 9%. Both Bears tackles -- Jason Peters and Elijah Wilkinson - have been middle of the road in terms of PBWR. But between Fields and the blitz-heavy Bucs defense, it's safe to assume the sacks will come.
J.J. Watt, Cardinals (vs. Texans)
Houston has a pair of backup tackles playing now in Geron Christian Sr. and Charlie Heck, plus a quarterback in Davis Mills who has an 8.5% sack rate this season, so they're an easy mark for sack artists. Of the two, Heck has been worse in pass protection this season, while Watt generally lines up on the right side, though not always on the edge. Watt recorded his first sack of the season last week but his pass rush win rates have been strong the whole time so he should have a good chance to grab another on Sunday.