Awesome New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas was hardly so awesome a season ago, catching a mere 40 passes and scoring nary a touchdown in his disappointing seven games. In 2019, Thomas broke the NFL record with 149 receptions, covering 1,725 yards. He also scored nine touchdowns for the third time in four seasons and was the first wide receiver off the fantasy board the next season.
It went badly.
Thomas may make his 2021 debut on Monday Night Football in Week 7, on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, and fantasy football managers probably have little idea what to expect.
While few would debate Thomas' extensive talents, the fact is that the Saints have hardly been one of the stronger offenses this season. In fact, they entered Week 6 with more yards from scrimmage than only three other teams -- and nobody confuses the Jets, Bears or Texans for playoff contenders.
The Saints are just outside the top 10 in points scored, however, as enigmatic QB Jameis Winston, despite averaging a mere 23 passing attempts per game, has played efficient football. Winston has done so sans reasonable NFL-caliber wide receivers. The Saints rank fourth in the league in rushing attempts and they play strong defense.
If Thomas plays in Week 7, it will be very interesting to see how his presence changes the offense. Then again, perhaps it will not change so much at all. The Saints hardly want Winston throwing 40 times per game. They want him managing games. No Saints have more than Alvin Kamara's 15 receptions or 22 targets, which is just ridiculous since it is past mid-October. Winston barely throws the football to anyone else. Should we presume the only reason is due to Thomas -- and other key players -- being hurt?
For fantasy purposes, Thomas, still available in roughly 15% of ESPN standard leagues (um, yes, go add him immediately) figures to assume at least flex status rather quickly, making him a worthy start. Still, expectations should also be reasonable, and not compared to his magical season of 2019, when he averaged 9.0 catches and 107.0 receiving yards per game.
Thomas thrives in the middle of the field as a clear go-to option -- and he scores touchdowns. He is definitely tough to cover, and he attracts defensive attention, but in this offense, perhaps WR2 status is enough to ask for.
After all, Thomas is also coming off major ankle surgery only four months ago, so do not expect him to be on the field for every offensive play in his debut game. This is a tough one. The Saints expected Thomas to miss at least the first six weeks of the season, which is why he fell outside the top-40 wide receivers in ESPN average live drafts.
Well, that time is now up, or very close to it. Whether you wish to rely on Thomas right away, however, is up to you and the rest of your fantasy personnel.
Key AFC North battle
The top Sunday afternoon matchup of Week 7 (with six teams on their bye) may be the 4-2 Cincinnati Bengals heading to Maryland to take on Lamar Jackson and the 5-1 Baltimore Ravens. QB Joe Burrow faced the Ravens once in his truncated rookie season, and it went poorly, as he threw for only 183 yards and an interception in a 27-3 loss. Burrow enters this matchup, however, having thrown two-plus TD passes in each of his six 2021 games. He and former LSU teammate WR Ja'Marr Chase enjoy a wonderful connection and RB Joe Mixon is coming off the best fantasy effort of his season, with 26.4 PPR points against the woeful Detroit Lions. The Bengals seem ready to contend for a playoff spot.
As for the Ravens, their blowout win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday was one of the more impressive efforts of the season. Jackson is again an MVP candidate, TE Mark Andrews is back on track and the running game is ... well, what is it? Fantasy managers still do not seem so excited about Latavius Murray and his colleagues. Murray does have rushing touchdowns in four of six games, but he hardly piles on the yards and is pretty much a passing game nonfactor. Still, he is scoring touchdowns. Expect him to keep scoring them.
Injuries to watch
The Cleveland Browns could have used RB Nick Chubb in Sunday's loss to the still-unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. Chubb missed his first game of the 2021 season with a calf injury, but the team does not expect this to be a long-term issue. As for his colleague Kareem Hunt, he left Sunday's loss with his own calf injury -- we should learn more on Monday -- and QB Baker Mayfield has a shoulder issue. The Browns host the Denver Broncos in the Thursday matchup and, while it seems likely that Mayfield plays, the RB situation is far more precarious. It might be Demetric Felton and D'Ernest Johnson handling things.
Then there are the New York Giants, who have no sympathy for any other team when it comes to injuries. The Giants lost emerging rookie WR Kadarius Toney early in Sunday's blowout loss to the Los Angeles Rams with an ankle injury, and the previously most-added player at his position over the past week may miss the Week 7 game against the Carolina Panthers. QB Daniel Jones is missing much of his WR corps and who knows when RB Saquon Barkley recovers from his sprained ankle. It may be this week or it may be another month.
Big debut for the 'Zach Attack'
We do not often discuss tight ends in this space, but since the Cardinals continue to dominate offensively and they acquired three-time Pro Bowler Zach Ertz from the Philadelphia Eagles last Friday, that seems like a rather important transaction. Ertz should debut this Sunday against the woeful Houston Texans.
While he may not be among the top tight ends in fantasy anymore, this is an elite offense and this matchup, by the way, is an elite one as well. Let us see how Ertz, who already has a pair of TD receptions this season, fits in, for he may be a TE1 from here on out.
Then again, so should Eagles starter Dallas Goedert, who no longer has to share snaps with Ertz. Goedert missed the Week 6 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after his placement on the COVID-19 list. He should be healthy for Week 7 and able to handle a significant target share for the road game against the Las Vegas Raiders -- and beyond.
So, is it Ertz or Goedert for fantasy the rest of the way? Well, Arizona's offense is superior to Philadelphia's, but Goedert may be the top target for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. Still, each player looks better for fantasy by no longer being teammates.