Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
But there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What exactly constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 5, we'll use 2021 data (four weeks are already in the books), but starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided.
To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (versus Detroit Lions). Statistically speaking, the Lions' defense has struggled more to contain the run than pass, serving up a quartet of 15-plus-point PPR performances to running backs through four weeks, whereas quarterbacks have reached that threshold against this defense twice. Consider the offenses the Lions have faced, however: The San Francisco 49ers (Week 1) had Raheem Mostert and Elijah Mitchell healthy, the Green Bay Packers (Week 2) had Aaron Jones and the Chicago Bears (Week 4) had a rookie quarterback but proven running back in David Montgomery. The sum was 19 more rushing than passing attempts, in a league where teams have passed 59% of the time in 2021.
The bottom line: The Lions' defense is in the midst of an aggressive rebuild, strengthening opponents' matchups across the board. Cousins might need to carry the offense again after Dalvin Cook last week looked limited coming off the ankle injury that cost him Week 3. Cousins is a top-10 fantasy quarterback facing this matchup, but then almost every Vikings skill player is a go this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Cleveland Browns). From a statistical standpoint, the Browns' defense has seemingly played directly into the hands of its matchups, affording Patrick Mahomes a 33.28 fantasy point score in Week 1, while being the author of Justin Fields' 3.92 point disaster of a first career NFL start in Week 3. It's the unit's performance last week against the aforementioned Cousins, however, that hints at a burgeoning tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks. The Browns sacked Cousins twice, had the league's best pass rush win rate for the week (61%) and held the veteran passer to his seventh-worst completion percentage (52.6%) in his 108 career starts.
For the season, the Browns have the league's best pass rush win rate (59%), are tied for the lead in sacks (14) and have the fourth-lowest completion percentage allowed (57.7%). Their defensive front has performed as one of the league's best, and while Herbert fared well as a rookie when pressured, he hasn't been quite as successful in those situations as a sophomore, his completion percentage down 6% and touchdown rate slashed by more than half (1 of 36 such pass attempts, down from 11 of 169 in 2020).
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams (at Seattle Seahawks). Sony Michel's second-quarter fumble this past Sunday put him in coach Sean McVay's doghouse, and despite the short week and his own rib injury, Henderson should therefore remain the team's clear No. 1 running back. Matthew Stafford and the passing game are the focal point of this offense, but a Seahawks matchup on Thursday Night Football is about the best a running back could draw. This defense just allowed 4.93 rushing yards per attempt to a 49ers running game in disarray, and a combined 17.0 PPR fantasy points to Trey Sermon and Kyle Juszczyk, their top two backfield options, in the process.
Favorable Sunday matchup: Michael Carter, New York Jets (at Atlanta Falcons). As a London game, this one has a Sunday-morning kickoff, so keep it in mind, but Carter is one of the most appealing add-and-starts at the position this week. He emerged as the Jets' preferred primary back in Week 4, playing a season-high 50% of the offensive snaps with a 52% rushing share, and in the past three weeks combined has four of the team's six goal-line carries.
The Falcons haven't yet surrendered that week-winning PPR fantasy point total to an individual running back, having faced quite a few players off to sluggish starts (Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, Miles Sanders), but are nevertheless one of three defenses (Miami Dolphins, Jets) to have allowed a 10-point score to six different running backs through six weeks.
Unfavorable matchup: Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (versus New Orleans Saints). As mentioned above, Gibson is off to a sluggish start, though that's as much a product of Washington's offensive struggles as his own, individual performance. Washington has trailed by a touchdown or more on 43% of its offensive plays, and J.D. McKissic has been more of a focal point in those situations thus far. The problem here is that a Saints matchup leans much more strongly in favor of the passing-down back, as this defense has afforded the position the seventh-fewest fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.46) but fifth-most PPR fantasy points per target (1.76). Christian McCaffrey (24.7 PPR fantasy points, Week 2) and Barkley (29.6, Week 4) had good scores against the Saints, but more than half of their combined totals came on receiving plays, while no other running back managed even six total points against this defense. Gibson would need a significant boost in routes and targets in order to duplicate the days McCaffrey or Barkley had.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (versus Tennessee Titans). Through four weeks of 2021, the Titans have surrendered the second-most PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (205.2), after posting an identical, season-ending ranking in 2020 (719.9). Using this column's schedule-neutral calculations, the Titans were still second-worst against wide receivers in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed in 2020 (5.91), and they're third-worst so far this year (7.20). In short, this is Shenault's, and more importantly quarterback Trevor Lawrence's, best matchup to date.
Marvin Jones Jr. is the Jaguars' wide receiver you know and presumably already trust, but Shenault really isn't far behind in terms of usage. His 114 routes run, 26 targets and 40.4 PPR fantasy points are well within range of Jones' numbers to date (139, 31 and 53.8). Shenault also has an added advantage, as the Jaguars' primary slot receiver, a position the Titans have struggled to contain through four weeks. They've allowed a league-most 73.1 PPR fantasy points to wide receivers lined up in the slot, 23.1 more than any other defense.
Unfavorable matchup: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (versus New England Patriots). It's the second consecutive week that Cooks has faced a brutal matchup, and against his last one in Week 4, he played 86% of the Texans' offensive snaps, ran 23 routes, saw seven targets and delivered a forgettable 9.7 PPR fantasy point total. It's clear that when Cooks aligns against a defense with strong perimeter corners, he's in for a rough day as the team's clear focal point of the passing game, and that's again the case here.
Sure, the Patriots just released 2019 star Stephon Gilmore, but he hadn't played at all this year and wasn't eligible to play before Week 7 anyway. More important here has been the play of cornerbacks J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills, who combined have seen 43 targets on 212 coverage snaps, with opposing receivers totaling 27 catches for 322 yards and no scores on them, while recording two interceptions and five passes defensed.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (versus New York Giants). The Giants have had their issues containing opposing tight ends in recent years -- they were second-worst in the league in each of 2015 and 2017, for instance -- and following the season-ending loss of linebacker Blake Martinez (torn ACL), they're in danger of slipping back into that "soft matchup" classification. Juwan Johnson converted his only red-zone target for a 15-yard touchdown, beating safety Jabrill Peppers, in Week 4, a week after Lee Smith reeled in his lone red-zone target for a one-yard score. With Martinez sidelined, the Giants have called upon Reggie Ragland for more coverage snaps against tight ends, a noticeable downgrade at the position. That doesn't bode well for a matchup against a Cowboys team that targeted its tight ends at least 10 times in three of these teams' past five meetings, including Week 17 of last season when Schultz converted 10 targets into 14.0 PPR fantasy points.
Unfavorable matchup: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (versus New York Jets). The Jets' defensive performance to date is one of the best representations of how quickly things change in the NFL. Under defensively oriented new head coach Robert Saleh, this defense ranks 14th in points allowed (94), despite ranking seventh-worst in terms of total time on the field, and it ranks third-best in terms of PPR points afforded to wide receivers and eighth-best against tight ends. Here's what stands out at this position: Comparably sizable Jonnu Smith (6.8 PPR fantasy points, Week 2), Ian Thomas (2.7, Week 1) and Dan Arnold (2.6, Week 1) did practically nothing with their 10 total targets against the Jets, and the defense on the whole has afforded the position only four targets and zero touchdowns on 19 routes in the red zone. Pitts' usage continues to prop him up as a low-end TE1, but this matchup caps his upside.