Offensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To start the year we leaned on projected versions of our win rates based on the players expected to play along the line of scrimmage for every offense and defense. Once games began, those preseason projections become our priors -- which we then update with actual win rate data for every team.
Below we break down the Week 5 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Lamar Jackson and Baltimore Ravens backfield (vs. Colts)
Ravens projected run block win rate rank: 4th
Colts projected run stop win rate rank: 25th
Baltimore only ranks 8th in RBWR this season, so their projected rank of 4th going forward is still partially based on their high preseason prior. On one hand, that prior assumed a healthy Ronnie Stanley, and that was a big plus. On the other, Stanley's one poor game is a non-trivial reason why the Ravens are only 8th in the category.
Replacement Patrick Mekari has been solid, ranking 22nd among tackles in RBWR while Alejandro Villanueva - who slid over to left tackle - ranks 9th. However, Villanueva left last week's game with a knee injury.
The interior is the weaker part of Indianapolis' rush defense, with Grover Stewart below average in RSWR and DeForest Buckner slightly below average as well.
The interesting wrinkle here is actually Baltimore's running backs themselves: Ty'Son Williams was generating 1.5 yards per carry over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but Latavius Murray - who rushed the ball 18 times while Williams sat inactive - is generating -0.7. Jackson, meanwhile, leads the league in rush yards over expectation.
Antonio Gibson, Washington (vs. Saints)
Washington projected run block win rate rank: 1st
Saints projected run stop win rate rank: 8th
I know what you're thinking: those ranks don't look like a mismatch? It took me by surprise too. But Washington is the clear No. 1 when it comes to run blocking these days, and the range of projected run blocking rates is a lot larger than the range of projected run stopping rates (which tracks with our general understanding of offense being more stable than defense).
The Washington line is just killing it. Four of the five members - tackle Sam Cosmi, guards Brandon Scherff and Ereck Flowers and center Chase Roullier all rank in the top half of their position, though Scherff is now injured. So why is Washington just middle of the pack in yards per carry? Aside from not having a dual-threat QB, I'd put that on Gibson, who, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, has recorded -20 rush yards over expectation.
Again, New Orleans' run defense isn't bad though from a win rate perspective. While this is technically a mismatch by the numbers, it's actually a more difficult than average matchup for Washington. Between that and Scherff's injury, I actually don't think this matchup is that great for Gibson.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Lions)
Vikings projected run block win rate rank: 11th
Lions projected run stop win rate rank: 30th
When we point out these mismatches in the trenches, we're looking at it without the context of game-script. We're simply asking: when team A runs on team B, who has the blocking edge? When a large difference also matches up with a game where we'd expect a high workload? Whew, now that's a juicy matchup. Like, I'm literally taking a break from writing so I can fill out a DFS lineup anchored around Cook this second so I don't forget.
We've been fading the Lions for a couple weeks now. From a yards per carry perspective that really hasn't panned out, but Detroit has allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs (in standard scoring, since we're just talking rushing) than any other team in the league.
One more reason to like Cook: the Vikings are a heavy outside zone team - running it 60% of the time - and the Lions are allowing 5.96 yards per outside zone carry.
Disadvantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Jets)
Falcons projected run block win rate rank: 28th
Jets projected run stop win rate rank: 1st
Despite the Jets always being at the top of our projected run stop win rate ranks, playing the Jets has been very profitable for opposing running backs. One reason this might be different this week: Atlanta is only light favorites over the Jets so game script isn't out of control, and the Falcons have a particularly poor run blocking unit. Folorunso Fatukasi, Bryce Huff and Shaq Lawson are still blowing up the win rates, even as opponents have scored on the Jets.
Falcons tackles Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary and guard Jalen Mayfield all rank in the bottom five of run block win rate at their positions.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Bengals)
Packers projected run block win rate rank: 5th
Bengals projected run stop win rate rank: 21st
The Packers have weathered the pass blocking storm with David Bakhtiari out, still managing to rank 6th in PBWR this season, though Yosh Nijman - who has filled in at left tackle over the last two games with Elgton Jenkins also out - has recorded a poor 79% PBWR.
Though the Bengals have posted a slightly above average sack rate this season, their pass rush win rate has been below average. The bright spot has been Trey Hendrickson, their big money free agent signing this offseason, who has thrown up a top 10 pass rush win rate at edge so far this year. The issue is everywhere else: Sam Hubbard ranks dead last among all edge players in PRWR, and Larry Ogunjobi and D.J. Reader are below average at defensive tackle.
That Hendrickson plays on the offensive line's left could be more of an issue for Green Bay than the win rates suggest if Jenkins is out again.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Colts)
Ravens projected run block win rate rank: 8th
Colts projected run stop win rate rank: 28st
The Ravens end up with favorable matchups in the trenches in both the run and pass game this week, so it's setting up for an overall excellent opportunity for Jackson.
Where the aforementioned Mekari has really been killing it is in pass protection where he ranks second in PBWR among tackles. At center Bradley Bozeman leads the league in PBWR and Kevin Zeitler has put in a top-10 performance at guard, too.
The Colts' best pass rusher is DeForest Buckner who has posted an above-average-but-not-elite 13% PRWR at defensive tackle. Other than that, there's not much for Baltimore to be wary of pass rush wise. Jackson should be in for a big day.
Disadvantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (vs. Eagles)
Panthers projected run block win rate rank: 32nd
Eagles projected run stop win rate rank: 4th
Oof, the Panthers offensive line situation is rough and it finally caught up to them last week when Darnold was sacked 5 times against Dallas. Darnold has a propensity to take sacks as is, so this isn't an ideal combination. And it's rougher still when he goes against a strong pass rushing defense, which is what the Eagles are right now.
The star of the show for Philadelphia right now? Javon Hargrave, who leads the league pass rush win rate defensive tackle with a 33% posted. That's even better than Aaron Donald!
Jacoby Brissett, Miami Dolphins (at Buccaneers)
Dolphins projected run block win rate rank: 30th
Buccaneers projected run stop win rate rank: 3rd
This is going to be a rough spot.
It's been years since Miami has had adequate pass protection, and 2021 is no different. All five starters across the line have been below average, and that sets up a brutal matchup against the blitz-heavy Bucs. Rookie Joe Tryon-Shoyinka ranks 11th in pass rush win rate at edge (after recording two sacks against the Patriots last week), joining a pass rushing group that already includes Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea and Devin White.
Brissett already takes sacks at an above average rate, so this is a prime sack spot for Tampa.
Sack Watch
Matt Judon, Patriots (at Texans)
This is basically as good as it gets. Judon will mostly square off against former Patriot Marcus Cannon, who ranks third-worst among tackles in PBWR. And Cannon is protecting Davis Mills, who has a massive 10.7% sack rate. And the Patriots are expected to be ahead, so that will force Houston to throw and take risks. The only downside is that Judon splits time between the left and right side, but otherwise this is a perfect spot.
Shaq Barrett, Buccaneers (vs. Dolphins)
The case really is laid out in our disadvantageous matchups from Brissett right above. Barrett is going against rookie Liam Eichenberg - who ranks 43rd out of 63 qualifying tackles in PBWR - in a game the Bucs are expected to be up big in. Brissett has a career 7.5% sack rate, above league average.
Grady Jarrett, Falcons (vs. Jets)
Jarrett's pass rush win rate numbers are just a little down this year - he ranks 10th among defensive tackles, when he's normally a top-5 guy at least - but this is a great sack opportunity game for him against sack magnet Zach Wilson. The weak point of the Jets offensive line is right guard Greg Van Roten, who Jarrett should end up facing more than anyone.