Welcome to the Week 4 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player may be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons
Washington (1-2) is a road favorite in what figures to be a low-scoring game against the Falcons (1-2) this week. Both teams have struggled against quarterbacks, but neither Matt Ryan nor Taylor Heinicke are especially appealing fantasy starts. Heinicke is your best bet if you're looking to stream, having finished as QB9 and QB12 in the past two weeks.
At running back, Antonio Gibson, who is fifth in RB scrimmage yards, should be locked into lineups, whereas Atlanta RBs Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson are borderline RB2 options. Patterson has played well, but his usage (36th in RB touches) doesn't match his output (9th in fantasy points). Expect a return to earth, assuming he remains well behind Davis on the depth chart. J.D. McKissic should only be considered in deep PPR leagues.
Calvin Ridley and Terry McLaurin both have good matchups this week and are obvious lineup locks. The likes of Russell Gage (if he returns from injury), Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown should not be close to lineups right now.
Kyle Pitts (7th in TE targets) and Logan Thomas (top-13 in fantasy points all three weeks) both remain in the TE1 mix.
Over/Under: 43.6 (13th-highest in Week 4)
Win Prob: Washington 63% (10th-highest)
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
The 2-1 Bills are a massive home favorite against the Davis Mills-led 1-2 Texans this week. Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in fantasy points in Week 3 and is your best option at the position for Week 4 -- and perhaps the rest of the season, too. Mills, on the other hand, is your worst option among this week's 32 starting quarterbacks.
Zack Moss has finished as RB15 in fantasy points each of the past two weeks, but he remains in a timeshare with Devin Singletary. Moss is the preferred flex option of the two. Houston continues to roll with a four-headed backfield committee. Mark Ingram II is the best fantasy option of the bunch, but even he is a poor flex play.
Stefon Diggs has yet to produce a top-25 fantasy week this season, but his 26% target share suggests that will change soon. Brandin Cooks is sixth in WR fantasy points this season, but he's a strong bet for shadow coverage from Tre'Davious White, so we need to downgrade him to WR2 territory. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are both just inside the top-30 in WR fantasy points, but both could see a volume dip in a game where Buffalo is able to run more than usual.
Dawson Knox has scored in back-to-back games and is seeing just enough volume to keep him in the TE2 mix.
Eliminator Alert: Favored by 17 points at home against a third-round rookie quarterback and one of the league's shakiest overall rosters, the Bills are the obvious Eliminator play this week. The only reason to avoid them is their extremely light rest-of-season schedule, but this layup is too good to pass up. Check out our Eliminator Cheatsheet for the full Week 4 rundown.
Over/Under: 44 (12th-highest)
Win Prob: Bills 96% (Highest)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
This NFC North showdown features an 0-3 Lions squad heading to Chicago to play the 1-2 Bears. This projects as a low-scoring game, especially with Chicago's uncertainty at quarterback. It could be Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, or even Nick Foles under center for the Bears. However none of them should be in your lineup, even in a decent matchup against a struggling defense. The same goes for Jared Goff, who has seen his fantasy output decrease each week of the season.
This game does feature a pair of very appealing running backs in David Montgomery (seventh in RB touches) and D'Andre Swift (3rd in RB fantasy points and no lower than 7th in touches, yardage, and touchdowns). Jamaal Williams is on the flex radar, but his 41% snap share caps his upside.
Allen Robinson II is 66th at wide receiver in fantasy points (seriously), but his 26% target share and a good matchup against Detroit's beat-up cornerback room helps his chances of a Week 4 breakout. The same goes for Darnell Mooney, who is handling a generous 23% target share and is a viable flex in deep leagues. None of Detroit's wideouts have cleared 15 targets this season and they should all be avoided in fantasy.
T.J. Hockenson underwhelmed against Baltimore last week, but he remains locked into a big workload and is a top-five TE play. Only consider Cole Kmet in 2-TE leagues.
DFS Alert: Montgomery ($5,800) is the 17th-highest priced running back at DraftKings this week. That's less than the likes of Chuba Hubbard and Kareem Hunt. It's too low for a player who currently ranks 12th in yards, 6th in carries, and 4th in rushing yards at his position. Montgomery will be harder to trust if Fields is under center, but keep in mind that he was RB8 in Week 1 -- his only full game with Dalton. Montgomery has a terrific matchup this week, as the Lions have allowed the most RB fantasy points over expected. They've surrendered a league-high six touchdowns, as well as 4.6 YPC (8th-highest) and 7.8 YPT (6th-highest) to the position.
Over/Under: 42.8 (14th-highest)
Win Prob: Bears 66% (eighth-highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
The 2-1 Cowboys are home favorites against the 3-0 Panthers this week. Carolina has played terrific defense so far, but this will be the unit's first major test after facing Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Davis Mills during Weeks 1-3. Even after a slight downgrade, Dak Prescott remains a lineup lock. Sam Darnold has played well this season, but he also hasn't taken a single snap while trailing on the scoreboard, so we should still be hesitant about him as a fantasy starter.
Ezekiel Elliott has ripped off back-to-back top-10 fantasy weeks, but gets a downgrade against a Carolina defense that has allowed 148 yards (fewest), zero touchdowns, and 23 fantasy points (fewest) to running backs. Similarly, Tony Pollard (who has failed to clear 9.0 fantasy points in two of his three games) should be downgraded and is a name to avoid this week.
Christian McCaffrey is out for Carolina, which positions rookie Chuba Hubbard as an RB2 option. Hubbard played on 39 snaps (11 carries, 5 targets) to Royce Freeman's 10 (5 carries, 1 target) in relief of McCaffrey last week.
At wide receiver, DJ Moore may draw the dreaded "Trevon Diggs shadow" this week, but fantasy's WR10 is too good to bench. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are bounce-back candidates after Dallas leaned on its tight ends and backs in Week 3. Both are strong WR2 plays. Robby Anderson's target total (11) is ugly, but he draws a great matchup against Anthony Brown and is a sleeper this week. Terrace Marshall Jr. has 91 yards on 14 targets and isn't yet on the flex radar.
Dalton Schultz scored twice in Week 3, but totaled 63 yards (0 TD) on eight targets during Weeks 1 and 2. He's a TE2 as long as Blake Jarwin is stealing work.
Over/Under: 47.6 (sixth-highest)
Win Prob: Cowboys 67% (fifth-highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins
Both the 0-3 Colts and 1-2 Dolphins are struggling offensively this season, so it's hardly a surprise that this projects as Week 4's lowest-scoring game. As a result, there isn't much here in terms of standout fantasy options. Jacoby Brissett and Carson Wentz (no top-15 weeks in three starts) should both be on benches.
Jonathan Taylor has yet to find the end zone, but he's 12th in RB touches and tops in OTD (3.3), which suggests better days are ahead. Both he and Nyheim Hines are in a good spot this week against a Miami defense that has allowed the second-most touches, scrimmage yards, touchdowns and fantasy points to running backs this season. Taylor is a fringe RB1 and Hines is a PPR flex. Myles Gaskin has been solid thus far and decent volume (27 carries, 16 targets) keeps him in the flex mix.
The WR situation isn't as appealing for either team. Michael Pittman Jr. has seen 12 targets in consecutive games, but he'll have his hands full with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. He's best viewed as a WR3. Jaylen Waddle (who turned 13 targets into 58 yards last week), DeVante Parker and William Fuller V will all be involved for Miami. All three are on the flex radar in deeper leagues. Zach Pascal returned to earth with a 2-31-0 receiving line in Week 3 and isn't a recommended flex.
Mike Gesicki's 12-target Week 3 vaults him back into the TE1 discussion, but you likely have a better option this week.
Over/Under: 42.2 (16th-highest)
Win Prob: Dolphins 50% (16th-highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings
The 1-2 Vikings are set to host the 2-1 Browns in a game that features a pair of teams which could easily be 3-0 if not for late-game/last-second heroics. With both teams playing well offensively and underwhelmingly on defense (at least, in Cleveland's case, against starting quarterbacks), this projects to be the highest-scoring game in Week 4.
Kirk Cousins has opened the season with three top-12 fantasy outings and is viable streaming option this week. Baker Mayfield has yet to post a top-16 week in Cleveland's run-heavy attack and is best left on benches.
Dalvin Cook was out last week, but if he's back, you're starting him. If he's out, Alexander Mattison racked up 26 carries and saw eight targets in his place last week. He would be in the RB1 mix again this week. You're never benching Nick Chubb. While his production has been all over the map this season, Kareem Hunt remains a fringe RB2.
This shows as a poor matchup for Minnesota's wide receivers, but Cleveland didn't slow down either Kansas City or Brandin Cooks much before crushing Chicago in Week 3, so we don't need to worry much. Start Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen with confidence. Odell Beckham Jr. racked up nine targets in his 2021 debut last week and has immediately rejoined the weekly WR2 mix.
Tyler Conklin and Austin Hooper have combined for one top-12 fantasy week this season and are best left on benches.
Over/Under: 54.5 (Highest)
Win Prob: Vikings 50% (15th-highest)
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
The struggling 0-3 Giants head south to take on the 2-1 Saints in what projects to be a very low-scoring affair between two teams with better defenses than offenses. Neither quarterback is particularly appealing this week, especially after Daniel Jones stumbled in a good spot against Atlanta in Week 3. Jameis Winston finished outside the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy points both of the last two weeks.
Alvin Kamara is the top back in fantasy this week as he's set to face a Giants defense that has allowed 26-plus fantasy points to all three RB units it has faced. Saquon Barkley has played on over 82% of New York's offensive snaps in back-to-back games and, even against a tough Saints run defense, he's in the RB1 mix.
Wide receiver isn't quite as appealing, especially with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both unlikely to play because of injury. If Shepard surprisingly plays, he'd be a borderline WR2 option with Kenny Golladay as a flex. If Shepard is out as expected, Golladay will be on the WR3 radar with room for more.
Those are the only Giants wide receivers worth considering for lineups, as Kadarius Toney, John Ross, Collin Johnson and C.J. Board will all be candidates for a few snaps if Slayton and Shepard are out. Meanwhile, top WR Marquez Callaway has yet to clear five targets in any game and is a weak flex.
Evan Engram returned in Week 3 and his inefficient play continued (21 yards, 6 targets). He's not a good TE1 option right now.
Over/Under: 42.2 (15th-highest)
Win Prob: Saints 75% (third-highest)
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
The 0-3 Jets will play host to the 2-1 Titans this week. Neither of the teams' quarterbacks is appealing in fantasy, as Ryan Tannehill has only one top-20 fantasy week to his name this season with the Titans continuing to lean heavily on the run. Zach Wilson has thrown only two touchdown passes in three games and tops the league in both interceptions (7) and sacks (8). He shouldn't be close to lineups.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing attempts, yardage, and touchdowns, which is business as usual. However, he also ranks 11th in receptions and receiving yards among running backs, which is certainly a new phenomenon. Lock Henry into your lineup. The Jets continue to utilize a RB committee and, while Michael Carter has been the best of the bunch, his limited role has him only 51st at the position in fantasy points. He's a flex option, at best.
A.J. Brown is expected to miss Week 4 and Julio Jones may be out as well. If Jones plays, he should get a boost to his current career-low 18% target share and will be on the WR2 radar. If both Brown and Jones are out, Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will be the Titans' top receivers -- and way too risky to start.
Tennessee has already allowed 63-plus fantasy points to Arizona's and Seattle's WR rooms this season, which bodes well for Corey Davis' chances of jumping back into the WR3 mix. No other wide receivers from this game should be in lineups -- and that includes Jamison Crowder, who could be limited if he's able to make his 2021 debut.
Anthony Firkser missed Weeks 2 and 3 due to injury and won't be a starting option even if he's back.
Over/Under: 46 (ninth-highest)
Win Prob: Titans 59% (11th-highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
The 1-2 Eagles are coming off a rough loss against the rival Cowboys, but the good news is that they return home to play a last-place team in Week 4. That team is ... oh, no! It's the 1-2 Chiefs. So much for good news. With Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes under center, this game figures to feature a lot of scoring. Both quarterbacks are top-five in fantasy points this season and should be locked into lineups.
Miles Sanders was inexplicably limited to just five touches against Dallas, but still turned that tiny workload into 55 yards. He will surely get more work in Week 4. Kenneth Gainwell has played on 33% of the Eagles' offensive snaps, but only trails Sanders by 14 carries and one target. The rookie belongs on benches. Clyde Edwards-Helaire finally turned his heavy usage into a solid fantasy day last week and remains in the RB2 mix.
Tyreek Hill and DeVonta Smith have both posted back-to-back duds after strong Week 1 showings. Hill is still eighth in receiving yards and an obvious lineup lock. Smith is riskier, but his 23% target share keeps him in the flex mix. Jalen Reagor matched a career-high with eight targets last week and is a deep-league flex option. Mecole Hardman hasn't cleared 62 yards in a game since Week 8 of 2020 and has just three touchdowns during this 15-game span. He's a poor flex.
Travis Kelce is the top-scoring fantasy tight end, as usual. Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz are sharing TE duties for the Eagles (11 targets each), so neither is a must-start.
DFS Alert: Hurts' play has been inconsistent so far this season, but what has been consistent is his fantasy output. The second-year quarterback has put up 20-plus fantasy points in all three games. Despite this, his $6,900 cost at DraftKings ranks seventh at the position. Hurts ranks second in QB carries and rushing yards, and his efficiency is way up from 2020 (66% completion percentage, 8.0 YPA). The Chiefs, meanwhile, have allowed the second-most QB fantasy points. They allowed 321 passing yards to Baker Mayfield, four passing TDs to Justin Herbert, and a 16-107-2 rushing line to Lamar Jackson.
Over/Under: 53.6 (third-highest)
Win Prob: Chiefs 66% (seventh-highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
This NFC West showdown features the Matthew Stafford-led 3-0 Rams playing host to the Kyler Murray-led 3-0 Cardinals. Both offenses are red-hot, which suggests a high-scoring affair. Stafford and Murray both sit top-eight in fantasy points this season and should be locked into lineups.
Chase Edmonds hasn't yet finished a week better than 17th or worse than 24th in fantasy points this season. He remains a high-floor RB2. James Conner has more touchdowns (2) than targets (1), so he's only on the flex radar in non-PPR.
The Rams' RB situation is dicier after Darrell Henderson Jr. missed Week 3. Even if he's back this week, it's possible we'll see more of Sony Michel, who racked up 79 yards on 23 touches against the Buccaneers' elite run defense on Sunday. Henderson should be considered an RB2, with Michel best left on benches.
Cooper Kupp and DeAndre Hopkins are the WR lineup locks in this game. Kupp is fantasy's top-scoring wideout by 13 points and has posted 30-plus points in back-to-back games. Hopkins has yet to clear seven targets in a game this season and may draw the Jalen Ramsey shadow this week, but he's too good to bench. Robert Woods has been held under 12.5 fantasy points in all three games this season, so he's fallen down to WR3 range.
DeSean Jackson caught a long touchdown in Week 3, but he's only played on 21% of the snaps this season and is thus an extremely risky deep-league flex. Christian Kirk is WR15 in fantasy points, but he's hard to trust as a flex considering that his Week 3 target total (8) nearly matched his Weeks 1-2 total (9) -- and because Hopkins, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore are also in the mix.
Four Cardinals are currently tied for the team lead in targets (17), with Moore just behind with 15. The spread-it-around attack also includes Maxx Williams (11 targets), who has found his way into the TE2 discussion. Tyler Higbee scored in Week 2 and his 91% snap share keeps him locked into the TE1 mix.
Over/Under: 52.6 (fourth-highest)
Win Prob: Rams 63% (ninth-highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
We knew the NFC West would be tough this season and we're seeing that early on as the 1-2 Seahawks are currently in sole possession of last place in the division. They can change that this week if they're able to upset the 2-1 49ers on the road. This game has the look of one of the highest-scoring games of the week and features several top fantasy assets.
Russell Wilson has already posted a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks and is a lineup lock as the leader of Seattle's pass-heavy offense. Jimmy Garoppolo continues to cede snaps to Trey Lance, which has kept the veteran quarterback from having any top-12 fantasy weeks this season. He should be on benches or waivers.
Chris Carson's massive share of the Seattle backfield pie has allowed him to record three top-20 fantasy weeks to begin the season. The 49ers' RB situation remains in flux after Elijah Mitchell missed Week 3, leading the 49ers to use Trey Sermon and Kyle Juszczyk in a committee. Sermon's underwhelming usage and performance suggests Mitchell will return to lead-back duties once he's healthy. He would be a borderline RB2 if he is back this week.
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Deebo Samuel are your lineup locks at wide receiver, with all three sitting in the top-17 in WR fantasy points for the season. Brandon Aiyuk is trending up after last week's touchdown, but he's produced just 51 yards of offense this season and isn't yet on the flex radar.
George Kittle (101 yards) got back on track in Week 3 and is a lineup lock. Gerald Everett (9 targets on the year) is out this week, but replacement Will Dissly is no more than a TE2.
Over/Under: 54.3 (second-highest)
Win Prob: 49ers 57% (12th-highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
The 2-1 Ravens are headed to Denver to face off with a Broncos team that is 3-0 on the back of terrific defensive play. Lamar Jackson is easily the best quarterback Denver will have faced this season, but it's nonetheless a tough challenge for the Ravens' versatile leader. Jackson has only managed one top-13 fantasy week so far this season and should be downgraded to more of a borderline QB1 this week. Teddy Bridgewater has played well this season, but sits only 16th in QB fantasy points and isn't an ideal start against Baltimore.
Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams continue to split backfield duties in Denver, but the former has had more fantasy success. Gordon already has a pair of top-25 weeks under his belt, whereas Williams' best weekly finish was 25th in Week 3. Gordon is the preferred flex option against a Baltimore defense that has allowed five RB touchdowns this season (second-most).
Baltimore has turned to a three-headed backfield with Ty'Son Williams, Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman. Williams remains the best fantasy play, but he's a shaky flex.
With Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler out, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are both viable WR3/flex plays. Marquise Brown is coming off a rough Week 3, but his 28% target share keeps him in the WR3 mix. Sammy Watkins sits 44th at the position in fantasy points and could lose some work to first-round pick Rashod Bateman, who was activated from IR this week.
Mark Andrews and Noah Fant have each delivered a pair of top-12 fantasy showings this season and remain lineup locks.
DFS Alert: Fant ($4,300) is a terrific value play at DraftKings this week. Denver's tight end is TE10 in pricing, which is less than Robert Tonyan. Fant's target share is up slightly from last season (from 17% to 18%) and could rise even higher with Jeudy and Hamler both out. Even if that doesn't rise, Fant is already seeing decent usage, as his 17 targets are seventh-most at the position. The Ravens held T.J. Hockenson in check last week, but were crushed by Darren Waller and Travis Kelce earlier this season. Baltimore has allowed the most fantasy points, targets, receptions and receiving yards to the position.
Over/Under: 45.8 (10th-highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 53% (13th-highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers
The defending AFC North champion Steelers (1-2) have fallen to last in the division and will have their hands full getting back to .500 with a trip to Green Bay on deck. The 2-1 Packers are the clear favorite here in a game that sports a handful fantasy must-starts.
One of those reliable options is Aaron Rodgers, who despite a slow start, remains a back-end QB1 play. No defense has allowed more passing scores than the Packers (9), but Ben Roethlisberger is not playing well and that's been reflected in his fantasy output (under 15 points in all three games).
One place we can go for fantasy production is the RB position as both Aaron Jones (tops in RB touchdowns and second in fantasy points) and Najee Harris (first in RB targets and receptions, 6th in RB fantasy points) are lineup locks.
Davante Adams remains an elite WR option, but he's your only clear top-20 play from this game. Diontae Johnson was out last week, but his 22 targets during Weeks 1-2 locks him into the WR2 mix if he returns (as expected) against Green Bay. JuJu Smith-Schuster is battling a rib injury and will be a WR3 play if he's able to go. Chase Claypool is on the WR3 radar if Johnson and Smith-Schuster both play, but can be vaulted to the WR2 mix if either are out. Robert Tonyan's role has not changed this season and he remains a TD-dependent lottery ticket.
DFS Alert: Since putting up a dud in Week 1, Adams has scored 51 fantasy points (3rd-most) over the last two weeks. Despite the turnaround, he's still a bit underpriced at DraftKings ($7,900). Adams is tied for the NFL lead in both targets and receptions, and ranks third in air yards and first in OFP. His 37% target share is a career high and he's coming off a Week 3 game in which he was thrown at 18 times. He has a terrific matchup in Week 4, as he'll run most of his routes against Cameron Sutton and James Pierre. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-most targets, receptions, and yards to wide receivers this season, as well as the fifth-most fantasy points.
Over/Under: 47.5 (seventh-highest)
Win Prob: Packers 67% (sixth-highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots
The most-anticipated regular season game in a long time features Tom Brady's return to New England to face off with his old team. The 2-1 Buccaneers are heavy favorites against a 1-2 Patriots team that managed its only win against the struggling Jets. Brady is fantasy's top-scoring quarterback through three weeks and is a lineup lock. Mac Jones figures to throw the ball a ton this week, but that's nothing new (seventh in passing attempts) and hasn't led to any fantasy success (21st in passing yards, 28th in fantasy points, only two TDs). He's nowhere close to QB1 status.
Leonard Fournette is Tampa Bay's top running back, but that's yet to result in a single top-20 fantasy showing this season. He'll remain a flex option, at best, as long as he's sharing with Ronald Jones II and passing-game specialist Giovani Bernard.
New England's backfield is in flux after James White's injury forced Brandon Bolden into 32 snaps last week. Damien Harris remains the top fantasy player from this group, as he handles most of the carries, but he's not a factor in the passing game and game script may limit his touches this week. Especially against the Buccaneers' elite run defense, Harris is ideally left on benches. Bolden, J.J. Taylor and/or Rhamondre Stevenson will replace White but, until we see how it plays out, none belong in lineups.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are lineup locks, and Antonio Brown is back on the flex radar after spending Week 3 on the COVID-19 list. Jakobi Meyers still hasn't caught any touchdowns in his career, but he sits 7th among wide receivers with 30 targets this season and has a good matchup against the Buccaneers' beat-up CB room. He's the only viable WR3/flex among New England's wide receivers, though Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne are deep sleepers in what should be a high-volume pass game.
Rob Gronkowski remains a lineup lock after scoring twice in both Weeks 1 and 2. Jonnu Smith has been quiet in fantasy, but he has also handled five-plus targets in all three games, which keeps him in the TE1 discussion. Hunter Henry (13 targets in three games) belongs on benches.
Over/Under: 46 (eighth-highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 77% (second-highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
This week's Monday Night Football showdown features a 3-0 Raiders squad heading to Los Angeles to take on a 2-1 Chargers team fresh off a victory over the defending AFC champion Chiefs. Strong QB play from Derek Carr and Justin Herbert suggests a high-scoring game is likely. After a slow start to the season, Herbert went off for 31 fantasy points against the Chiefs and remains a solid QB1 play.
Carr lacks fantasy upside, but he's delivered a high floor with three top-10 weeks. He may not keep that streak alive this week against a Chargers defense that shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick and Dak Prescott before somewhat containing Patrick Mahomes (23 points). Consider Carr to be a borderline QB1.
Austin Ekeler has ripped off consecutive top-eight fantasy weeks and is a lineup lock. If Josh Jacobs returns from injury, he'll be in the RB2 mix, with Kenyan Drake reduced to low-floor flex value. If Jacobs remains out, Peyton Barber (36 carries, 5 targets in relief over the last two weeks) vaults back into the flex discussion, whereas Drake (15 carries, 12 targets from Weeks 2 to 3) would barely shift in value.
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both top-12 fantasy wide receivers so far this season and obvious lineup locks, although Williams could draw shadow coverage from Casey Hayward Jr. Hunter Renfrow and Henry Ruggs III are both top-30 fantasy receivers this season and, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers, both can be considered flex options.
Darren Waller leads the NFL in targets and is a lineup lock. Jared Cook's targets are trending in the wrong direction, but his 85 routes run suggest that better days are ahead. He's a borderline TE1.
Over/Under: 49 (fifth-highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 51% (14th-highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
This week's Thursday Night Football game features the struggling 0-3 Jaguars and the surprising 2-1 Bengals.
Neither quarterback is a "must start" this week, but Joe Burrow is a streaming option against a Jacksonville defense allowing 9.2 yards per attempt and a 74% completion percentage -- both of which are third highest in the league. Trevor Lawrence is struggling with turnovers and has failed to clear 8.0 fantasy points in both of the past two weeks. He should not be close to lineups.
Both running backs should be started. Joe Mixon could stand to see more targets, but he ranks second at the position in carries, rushing yards, and touches. He's in a good spot against a Jaguars defense allowing the fifth-most RB fantasy points this season. James Robinson is in a tougher spot against a Bengals defense that hasn't allowed a RB unit to clear 67 rushing yards this season, but he's still in the RB2 mix after a strong Week 3 showing.
This game is loaded with WR2/WR3/Flex options. We'll start with Marvin Jones Jr., who has racked up nine-plus targets and 55-plus yards in all three games. He's a borderline WR2. DJ Chark Jr. (86 yards in Week 1, but 68 yards total during Weeks 2-3) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (95 yards on 19 targets this season) are flex plays.
Ja'Marr Chase has scored at least one TD in all three of his NFL games and, though he's sure to regress to the mean in that department (4 TDs, 0.9 OTD), he's in a good spot this week with Tee Higgins sidelined -- not to mention that he's going against a struggling Jaguars defense (fourth-most WR yards allowed). Tyler Boyd hasn't posted a weekly fantasy finish better than 30th, but his career-high 26% target share and Higgins' absence locks him in as a WR3.
Over/Under: 44.5 (11th-highest)
Win Prob: 75% (4th-highest)