Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 4, we'll use 2021 data (three weeks are already in the books), but starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a three-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team (at Atlanta Falcons). He might seem an odd choice, with the bye weeks still two weeks ahead of us, but in your two-quarterback and superflex leagues and daily-fantasy lineups, Heinicke is one of the most appealing add-and-starts of Week 4. He's QB17 in terms of total fantasy points through two starts and a relief appearance (52.00), and QB12 in terms of points per offensive snap played (0.31), and bear in mind that he did that against the Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants and Buffalo Bills, defenses that through three weeks have allowed the seventh-fewest, 14th-fewest and fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Heinicke could get Curtis Samuel (groin, IR but designated for return) back this week, but he has plenty of receivers with which to work nevertheless, in a week where he'll draw by far his most favorable matchup yet.
The opposing Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (74.64) and the fourth-most points per pass attempt (0.59), are one of only four teams without an interception and have the fifth-lowest pressure rate on quarterbacks (24.2% of drop-backs). Best yet: Heinicke is available in 94% of ESPN leagues, and he's only the 14th-priciest quarterback on DraftKings.
Unfavorable matchup: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (at Denver Broncos). While the Broncos have had an extremely easy quarterback schedule through three weeks, facing the Giants' Daniel Jones (21.38 fantasy points), Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence (6.82) and New York Jets' Zach Wilson (2.60), my preseason projections had them as the top defensive unit against the position and they've predictably dominated those young quarterbacks, to the tune of a best-in-the-league 30.80 total fantasy points allowed and 0.19 fantasy points per pass attempt. This is the fourth straight week the Broncos have checked in No. 1 in the chart below, but the first in which they'll face a true test: Jackson, the QB8 through three weeks (69.54 points) and the game's best rushing quarterback, which I'd argue is the toughest part of the defense's task. From a passing perspective, however, Jackson doesn't match up well, as all three primary Broncos cornerbacks (Bryce Callahan, Kyle Fuller and Pat Surtain II) as well as safeties Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons have excellent numbers in coverage thus far.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (versus Seattle Seahawks). I'm highlighting him despite his Week 3 absence due to a shoulder injury and uncertain Week 4 status, as the identity of the 49ers' starting running back is paramount facing a matchup as favorable as this. The Seahawks have surrendered the season's best fantasy day by any individual player, Derrick Henry's 47.70 PPR point performance of Week 2, not to mention a 23.10 point game to fill-in Alexander Mattison in Week 3 and combined 31.80 point scores to Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines in the season opener. Much of that is volume, as the Seahawks have seen the second-most rushing attempts in the league (104, one off the lead), but it's not like a dramatic turnaround is imminent, considering the team's rotational strategy on the defensive line and its struggles thus far to adequately replace Shaquill Griffin, Jarran Reed and K.J. Wright, all of whom departed via free agency during the offseason. Mitchell might well not be healthy enough to return for this game, but considering fill-in Trey Sermon was clearly outplayed by fullback Kyle Juszczyk in Week 3, there's little doubt he'd be given a starter's workload if he's able to suit up.
Unfavorable matchup: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (at New Orleans Saints). Sure, his Week 3 represented an encouraging step, as his 21.40 PPR fantasy points nearly doubled his first two weeks' total and he had 22 touches while playing 84% of the snaps on offense. The matchup had quite a bit to do with it, however, as the Falcons' 6.26 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed to running backs through three weeks ranks third-highest, and Barkley also had extended rest after the Week 2 Thursday night game. This week, he'll match up with a far stiffer Saints defense, one that embarrassed Aaron Jones to the tune of 4.20 PPR fantasy points in Week 1 and stymied Damien Harris, who scored 3.10 points on eight total touches in Week 3. This defense has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards before contact (1.65), and while Christian McCaffrey's 24.70 points in Week 2 might offer some optimism considering Barkley's similar receiving skills, there's a good likelihood he'll take a step backward this week.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Kansas City Chiefs). He'll probably be characterized a disappointment thus far, checking in as WR55 with his 28.50 PPR fantasy points and having been quiet in what should've been a big Week 3 considering game flow, but Smith's usage offers much room for optimism. Through three games, he's the Eagles' leader among flex-eligible players, with 96 routes run, a 22.6% target share and 89.1% of the team's snaps played on offense. Hot-starting sophomore Trevon Diggs is a large reason why Smith was held quiet last week -- Diggs had an interception and two passes defensed on six coverage snaps when aligned with Smith -- but the Chiefs, with slow-starting cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Daniel Sorensen covering the perimeter, present Smith with a far cozier matchup in Week 4. To that point, these Chiefs have the sixth-most Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed to wide receivers (5.16), and have allowed the third-most PPR fantasy points per target to the position (2.19) and the third-most points to opposing WR1s (61.7).
Unfavorable matchup: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at Buffalo Bills). Few individual cornerback matchups are as tough as that of the Bills' Tre'Davious White, who since the beginning of the 2019 season has afforded only four touchdowns, a 53.1% completion rate and 58.6 passer rating to opposing wide receivers on 1,015 coverage snaps. He's a large part of the reason that Terry McLaurin managed a mere 10.20 PPR fantasy points on seven targets in Week 3, while DeVante Parker scored only 9.20 points on his nine targets the week before that. Cooks, easily the Texans' top receiving target, will probably line up with White for the vast majority of his routes. Even when he doesn't, however, it should be stressed how excellent this defense has performed against wide receivers through three weeks, as nickel corner Taron Johnson is off to a similarly outstanding start: The Bills have allowed by far the fewest PPR fantasy points per target to wide receivers (1.09).
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills (versus Houston Texans). As hard as it might be to believe, he's the TE8 through three weeks (32.70 PPR fantasy points), and is one of only seven tight ends with as many as two end-zone targets. Knox has been involved in this offense, if you're in a pinch at the position or want a cheap flier for your daily-fantasy lineups -- he's only $3,600 on DraftKings! Quarterback Josh Allen matches up brilliantly for this game, and if you've been tracking the Texans, you're probably aware that they've been weak at containing tight ends thus far. Along with the Giants, they're one of two teams that has seen as many as five different tight ends deliver at least 8.00 PPR fantasy points in a game, and most of the names responsible are far from familiar: Chris Manhertz, James O'Shaughnessy, Harrison Bryant and Tommy Tremble.
Unfavorable matchup: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (versus Arizona Cardinals). He's off to a decent enough start, the TE12 through three weeks (28.60 PPR fantasy points), though he also has a modest 12.9% target share in what has been a pretty potent passing game. Usage alone makes him only a borderline fantasy start, but this is a matchup that should cause you to seek alternatives wherever possible. The Cardinals have surrendered the fourth-fewest PPR fantasy points to tight ends (12.8) and the third-fewest points per target (0.85), though they haven't faced one quite the caliber of Higbee. Regardless, this defense has limited tight ends to a 50% catch rate, 48 receiving yards, zero touchdowns and has a pair of interceptions against it, much of that the result of good play by cornerback Byron Murphy, safety Budda Baker and linebacker Isaiah Simmons.