Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also not mortgaging future weeks by burning up all of your good teams early on. Injuries and teams either overachieving or underachieving will always open up more opportunities later, so early in the season there is less incentive to worry about saving teams.
To make these recommendations, I look at a combination of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), point spreads from Caesars Sportsbook, injury reports, upcoming schedules and any other stats that can potentially provide an edge.
You can find all the rules here. (For more on how the FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
Through three weeks, we've avoided the big upset in the NFL. No underdog of more than seven points has won a game yet. If one doesn't win this Sunday, it would mark the first time that has happened through the first four weeks since 2010.
This week, the Buffalo Bills are the biggest favorites thus far this season according to the betting odds, laying 16.5 points early in the week for Sunday's home game vs. the Texans. While the Bills have an 86% chance to win according to the FPI, an upset would not be unprecedented. At least one 16-point underdog has pulled off an outright upset in three straight seasons. But Buffalo will be the overwhelming chalk this week, for good reason.
However, it's worth noting that the Bills are currently slated as the largest weekly favorite in Weeks 8 (Dolphins), 9 (at Jaguars), 10 (at Jets), 11 (Colts), 17 (Falcons) and 18 (Jets). So if you trust the New Orleans Saints or Cincinnati Bengals, saving the Bills could be worthwhile. However, it's risky trusting Jameis Winston or Joe Burrow when there is such an obvious choice in Buffalo.
Top picks
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans
This is the second-most-lopsided game all season according to the FPI, only behind a Week 18 game against the Jets in which Buffalo may be resting starters. So on paper, this is as free a square as it gets. However, as mentioned earlier, the Bills have the most future value of any team in the NFL based on their schedule.
Six of the FPI's eight most one-sided games involve the Bills as the favorites, including four games remaining against the Jets, Jaguars and Falcons. As a result, there is a strong case to look elsewhere, especially considering how popular the Bills will be this week. But if you simply want to take the team with the best chance to win -- and that's the ultimate goal with this contest -- the answer is clearly Buffalo.
Line: Bills -16.5 (-1600 ML)
FPI favorite: 86% (second highest in any game this season)
Eliminator Challenge: 35% selected
New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants
The Saints get a slight edge over the Bengals as the top non-Bills pick. There are other chances to use the Saints, including Week 9 against the Falcons and Week 14 at the Jets, but both weeks, there appear to be several other quality options. As for this matchup, New Orleans is led by the fourth-most-efficient defense in the NFL, and as a result, the Giants have the second-lowest implied team total of the week (17.5 points). The Saints run the ball more than any team in the NFL, and the Giants' run defense is sixth worst, based on EPA.
The one caveat to this pick is that Jameis Winston is just 11-10 in his career as a favorite (0-1 this season), and he's never been this big of a favorite. However, when the FPI's fifth-best team hosts the 26th-ranked team, it's a strong pick, especially when it doesn't appear to be popular.
Line: Saints -8
FPI favorite: 74%
Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected
Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Outside of a Week 16 road game against the Jets, picking against Jacksonville every road game the rest of the season is reasonable. The Bengals' defense has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL thus far, ranking sixth in efficiency. That's a mismatch against a rookie quarterback and struggling offense. On paper, there are no weeks to save the Bengals for, so this is clearly the best week to use them.
Cincinnati has not been this big of a favorite since 2017, and entering this week it had been the underdog in 15 straight games. It's also possible the Bengals overlook Jacksonville in a short week after a huge win in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are just 1-3 outright as a favorite under Zac Taylor. Despite all that, the Bengals look like a decent team (22nd in FPI), and any decent team should beat the Jaguars at home.
Line: Bengals -7.5
FPI favorite: 69%
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected