Sometimes you have a good week, and that's what happened last week. I highlighted how the Rams might provide value as underdogs vs. the Buccaneers. Nice work, L.A. I thought the 49ers were a little overrated. Thank you, Aaron Rodgers and Mason Crosby. And I thought the Chargers were a team that was much closer to Kansas City than the index indicated. Good job, Justin Herbert.
OK, let's take a peek at this week's index and see what stands out for wagering in Week 4:
Las Vegas Raiders (5) at Los Angeles Chargers (9)
Perhaps Jon Gruden & Co. will ultimately make me eat crow and look foolish, but I do not in any way think this is the fifth-best team in the NFL. Yes, the record says the Raiders are undefeated, and no team has done more to smash expectations through three games, but I think the Raiders come back down to earth on Monday night against the Chargers.
Wait to see if you can get the Chargers at -3 or less (it's currently -3.5), but a reality check might be coming for the Raiders, who have made a habit recently of starting fast and then fading down the stretch. Will we see that again this season? Monday night might go a long way to helping us answer that question. Stay tuned ...
Play: Chargers
Carolina Panthers (12) and Denver Broncos (13) are values
Both of these teams should be inside the top 10. I think they suffer from expectation bias and the fact that they are either fringe franchises in terms of legacy (Carolina) and/or don't have a legacy QB (Denver) to draw attention from the masses. Take advantage of the value. These are the only two 3-0 ATS teams in the NFL (Dallas is 2-0 entering MNF) and I do not think that's a fluke. Not only are they winning against the number, both teams are smashing the spread by an average of 10+ points per game.
The market is slow to credit these teams, meaning both provide value to me next week. Carolina, which hasn't played since Thursday, gets Dallas (-4.0) on short rest after a likely hard-fought NFC East battle. Meanwhile, Teddy ATS and the Broncos (-1.5) welcome a Baltimore team to Denver that is hanging on by a thread. Hop on the wagon before it's too late.
Play: Panthers and Broncos
Detroit Lions (30) at Chicago Bears (27)
Before the season started, I thought only the Houston Texans would be a more inept bunch from week to week than the Lions. Not that Detroit is some kind of sneaky playoff contender (it's not), but this team is going to be a tough fight each and every Sunday to earn an ATS win. The Lions stormed back in crazy fashion Week 1 to backdoor the 49ers, they were leading the Packers 17-14 at halftime at Lambeau Field in Week 2, and they almost upset Baltimore outright at home on Sunday.
Bottom line, at 2-1 ATS this season I underestimated the resolve of this team. Next week, the Lions travel to Chicago to take on the utterly clueless Matt Nagy and the Bears. The number is already moving in Detroit's favor so jump on it as a +3 'dog before that number comes inside a FG. ML (+140) might even be worth a sprinkle. I think there are six or seven teams I'd rather face right now than the Lions, not just the one. Good start for Dan Campbell and Jared Goff.
Play: Lions