Fantasy football - Matthew Berry's Love, Hate and the greatest MNF comeback in fantasy history

Any discussion of the greatest comebacks in sports starts with the same list.

Reggie Miller scoring eight points in 8.9 seconds to bring the Pacers back from six down against the Knicks in '95.

The Red Sox, mired in an 86-year drought, down 3-0 to the hated rival Yankees in the 2004 ALCS and facing Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the ninth down 4-3 in Game 4, winning that game on a Big Papi home run in the 12th, ultimately winning the series and the World Series.

The 2016 Cubs, mired in an even longer drought (108 years!) being down 3-1 in the World Series to Cleveland only to come back and win it all.

That same year, the Cleveland Cavaliers coming back from down 3-1 to the 73-win Golden State Warriors, the most successful regular-season team in NBA history, to win the NBA championship.

There's then-backup quarterback Frank Reich leading the Bills to victory against the Houston Oilers after being down 35-3 in the 1992 wild-card game. The Bills don't make it to the third of four Super Bowls in a row if Reich doesn't make this win happen.

Texas A&M men's basketball, overtime winners after being down 12 to Northern Iowa with only 44.3 seconds left to play in the first round of the 2016 NCAA tournament.

And, of course, there is "28-3." The Patriots, down 25 to Atlanta in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI, only to come back and win it in overtime.

There are golfers, tennis players and soccer teams. I'm sure you could add any number of your favorites to this list of greatest sports comebacks of all time.

A list that now includes Jacobb Lemos of Yucaipa, California.

Currently a junior studying psychology at Cal State San Bernardino, Jacobb (yes, two B's) is a longtime fantasy football player, having joined a family league when he was just 10 years old.

He's playing in two leagues this year, including a 12-team league comprising all his buddies from his summer job working in a local warehouse.

With significant (to a college kid) stakes on the line, and after a ninth place finish last year, Jacobb was determined to right the ship this season. He wasn't able to get Alvin Kamara (his favorite player) in the draft but he still honored his hero by naming his team "Instant Kamara," and thanks to big games from Amari Cooper, Antonio Brown and the Saints' defense, Jacobb started out with a win in Week 1.

But in Week 2, disaster struck. Playing his good friend Art's "COLTON Lunie," which started the week hot. I mean, Art got 22 points (22!) from Graham Gano on Thursday night. So Jacobb was already facing an uphill battle heading into weekend.

Jacobb's Week 1 stars struggled in Week 2. Just a combined 13.1 points for Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper and the Saints' D. Another five from his kicker, Younghoe Koo, and Jacobb had just 18.1 points from four players, 3.9 points fewer than Gano's Thursday total.

And Art was pouring it on.

You know, fantasy football is a made-up, online game and (most) NFL players rightfully don't know or care about whose fantasy team they are on. And yet, perhaps sensing Art's desperation -- he finished last in 2020 and had started this season 0-1 -- his team stepped up. In a big way.

Julio Jones (18.8 points) and Ezekiel Elliott (17.7) had big rebound games. Art made a smart start decision with Teddy Bridgewater (21.22), and he got the typical strong games from DeAndre Hopkins (15.4) and Adam Thielen (15.9).

All in all, Art's team put up 130.72 points in Week 2, a nice score for a 12-team league where you start the usual nine.

Jacobb's score was 34.1 heading into Monday Night Football.

Down by almost 100 points.

Jacobb still had four players left to play, but do the math. He'd need his four players to average 25 points. Having even one player get 25 points is rare enough, but to get 100 total points from four guys -- the right four players -- the same NFL game? The odds aren't good.

Jacobb's league plays on ESPN, and on all of our matchup pages, we use projections and how the games are going to calculate the odds of victory. Heading into Monday Night, ESPN gave Jacobb a 1% chance of winning, the lowest possible odds for a game still in progress.

Some fantasy managers might have blown off the game, ignored it, mentally moved on to Week 3 and been done with it.

But not Jacobb.

Instead of cursing the fantasy gods, getting mad at himself, or wallowing in self-pity, Jacobb realized that fantasy football had given him a great gift. Fantasy football had given Jacobb a chance.

Great moments are born from great opportunity, and as Jacobb sat down to watch Monday Night Football, he understood what was before him. A chance at the greatest comeback in fantasy football history.

His four players were Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson.

First quarter. Aaron Jones catches a pass from Aaron Rodgers for a touchdown. Double points. T.J. Hockenson catches one as well. With 1:52 left in the second quarter, Aaron Jones catches another touchdown pass from Rodgers, this one a short 1-yard dump-off. Another double score and Jacobb starts thinking this might actually be happening.

Third quarter now, and Rodgers throws two more touchdown passes, including his third to Jones. Jacobb is so close he can taste it. But he's not there yet.

With just 3:07 left in the game, Jacobb is now losing 130.7 to 128.8.

Jared Goff throws a pass to D'Andre Swift for 7 yards. Oh wow. 130.7 to 130.5 Three minutes left.

A 5-yard pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown does Jacobb no good. Neither does the Lions' next play, a 24-yard pass to Trinity Benson. There is just 2:08 left in the game.

And then it happens. A 16-yard pass to Swift, 2.6 points. Jacobb is now at 133.1 and is on the verge the greatest comeback in fantasy football history. A fumble could still cost him. But Swift adds one more 7-yard catch for good measure, and the final score is 134.8 to 130.72.

Amazing. Unreal. Only in sports.

There were a lot of games swung by Monday night, and I heard from so many of you about the comebacks you made.

But man. Basically down 100 points. All four guys need to hit -- including a tight end and two different players from each team.

It was a 1% chance. But it was a chance.

So as you journey into Week 3 and the rest of the season, as you hit speed bumps and injuries and unexpected poor performances, as you score the second-most points in your league only to play the highest-scoring team, even if you are 0-2 right now, remember the story of the 97-point comeback. The story of the #MondayNightMiracle.

Being down does not mean being out -- it only means you have been given a chance. A chance to make your own comeback. A chance at greatness. A chance to write your own name in the fantasy football record books.

Just like Jacobb Lemas and Instant Kamara.

Let's get to it.

Quarterbacks I love in Week 3

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (vs. Washington)
Through the first two weeks of the season, last year's top-scoring player in all of fantasy football is 51st overall. Wait, that can't be right. (Checks notes) Yep. That's right, 51st overall and 19th among QBs. Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz and Tyrod Taylor are among the many QBs with more fantasy points than Allen so far. I hear the screams and panic in the fantasy streets. Allen, who totaled 25 rushing touchdowns in his first three seasons, has none this season. Meanwhile, Zack Moss, who was a healthy scratch in Week 1, had two last week! What-what-what?!

Calm down, Mrs. Broflovski. Allen is still running. In fact, he's averaging seven carries per game thus far, more than his per-game rate of the past two seasons. He also barely missed out on a touchdown last week when he slid just short of the goal line. The rushing touchdowns are still going to be there. He very well might even get one this week against a Washington defense that, much to my chagrin, hasn't been as stout as expected through the first two weeks. Daniel Jones, who is not Josh Allen (#analysis) ran up and down the field on Washington last week. Through two weeks, the Football Team is, sigh, allowing the sixth-highest completion rate on deep passes and it should be even worse (thank you, Darius Slayton). Allen has just missed on a number of deep balls this season, and I expect him to connect on a few Sunday. Don't forget: Allen had a bit of a dry stretch last season as well and still finished as the top player in fantasy. So, no, you shouldn't panic about him. Do not set yourself on fire and jump through a folding table. That is, unless you're a Bills fan celebrating Allen's return to fantasy dominance.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Cowboys)
Can't believe Hurts came back to earth in such a huge way last week, right? I mean ... the whole offense struggled, he completed just 52% of his passes and the Eagles' offense managed just 11 points -- the fourth-lowest output of any team on the Week 2 slate in a bad home loss to the Niners. I told you, Berry, you can't count on Jalen Hurts, who last week was ... (checks notes) QB10. Wait, what? (Double checks notes). Huh. In a brutal week, he was still a top-10 QB. Uh ... yeah, Berry, well, um ... you were still wrong about hating Julio Jones last week! So there.

Yeah, yeah. Bad call on Julio last week, but overall a really good week for Love/Hate and a really good year for Hurts, who is on his way to a monster season, as I was screaming all preseason. Hurts has at least 60 rushing yards in each of the five full games he's played in his NFL career, which gives him such an amazing floor. He's averaging 25.2 points in those five games, never scoring fewer than 18.6. This stretch includes 342 passing yards and 69 rushing yards in Week 16 at Dallas last season. Hurts is a top-six play for me once again against those same Cowboys in Week 3 in a game with an over/under north of 51.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (vs. Falcons)
See? This is the Daniel Jones I imagined last year when I made him my Fantasy Ride or Die. Then Saquon Barkley got hurt, the offense fell apart and it was a lot more "die" than "ride." One year too late for my fantasy analysis needs, Jones has become a version of Jalen Hurts: You don't have to like him as an NFL quarterback to love him as your fantasy quarterback. Through two games, Jones is QB4, putting up at least 21 fantasy points in each game thanks to being third in QB rushing on the season behind Lamar Jackson and Hurts. While I don't expect big, long runs every week like he had last Thursday, they are designing a lot of runs for him, so I do expect the rushing numbers to continue to be impressive. This week, Jones gets a Falcons defense that allowed 62 yards rushing to Hurts in Week 1 and has given up the most fantasy points to QBs so far this season. Kenny Golladay may not have been yelling at Jones on the sideline last week, but you'll be yelling at yourself if you keep Jones on the bench this week. He's locked in as a top-12 play in Week 3.

Others receiving votes: It's impossible to run on the Tampa Bay defense, so opponents are throwing it ... and then they're throwing it some more when they fall behind. Teams facing the Bucs this season are averaging 53 pass attempts per game. You give Matthew Stafford 53 pass attempts and he's going to put up fantasy points. I have the very efficient Stafford as a top-12 play this week as well. ... Ryan Tannehill has thrown only one touchdown pass on 75 attempts this season. (Well, two, but Julio Jones got jobbed by the refs last week. But that's a rant for another time). Tanne-thrill is in line for some positive regression. He's also in line for a Colts defense that is simply regressing from last season's tough unit. The Colts are in the bottom four this season in yards allowed per pass attempt and rate of passing touchdowns allowed per attempt. Until further notice, start all your guys against the Colts. ... If you've been surprised by Sam Darnold (at least 18 points in each game) so far this season, I get it. Super weird, right? Who could have imagined Adam Gase was the issue? But if you're surprised he's getting fantasy love in a week in which he's playing the Texans' defense, well ... you surprise too easily. ... Teddy Bridgewater is QB12 so far on the season with at least 20 fantasy points in both games. While I don't expect that to last all year, there's no reason it can't last at least one more week against a Jets "defense" that has allowed opposing QBs to compete 70% of their passes. ... It wasn't always a pretty eye test last week for Justin Fields, but still, if you've learned anything from Jalen Hurts or Daniel Jones, or anything we've been yelling the past few years (dating back to when Tim Tebow was a starting QB!), rushing makes even the rawest of QBs very fantasy-relevant. Fields had 10 (!) rushing attempts last week in a bit more than half a game, and I expect him to have a very solid fantasy game against Cleveland this week and to be productive for as long as he's the starter in Chicago.

Quarterbacks I hate in Week 3

Once again, it is very hard to find quarterbacks to "hate" this week. Really good matchups for a lot of the fringe guys and too many stars that you're not benching no matter what (like Hurts who had a "bad" game last week and still finished top 10). So I don't want to force a "hate" just for the column, even though the dumb premise of this column was my idea some 20-odd years ago. So once again, a fairly light list this week.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Dolphins)
The first thing I need you to know is that Carr is actually pretty good, fantasywise. As my friend @LordReebs noted on Twitter recently, in Carr's past six full games played, he has yet to finish below QB12 for the week. He has two top-10 finishes this year and is QB8 on the season in total points. He has looked impressive in Vegas' opening wins over the Ravens and Steelers, two top-tier defenses. He leads the NFL in passing. I know a lot of things! Many of them are plot points from the "Trolls" multiverse, but still, I know them. I also know the Miami defense is really good, including being top 10 so far this season in yards and completion rate allowed on deep passes. (46% of Carr's fantasy points this season have come on deep passes). I also know Miami blitzes at the fourth-highest rate this season (Carr is 27th in completion percentage vs. the blitz thus far). Now, Carr has put up big fantasy numbers against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, two other tough matchups, so he should be fine against Miami. But I also think Miami struggles to put up points with Jacoby Brissett under center, so Carr may not have to throw as much. Bottom line, if you're looking for a streamer, I prefer the likes of Daniel Jones and Teddy Bridgewater more.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Bengals)
Ben Roethlisberger, at home, against the Bengals' defense ... on the hate list? Yup. For years that formula all but guaranteed Love list inclusion. But the years have caught up to Large Benjamin. So far this season, Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense are near the bottom of every statistical category, including bottom 10 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt and fantasy points per pass attempt. "Ahhh, but sometimes stats don't tell the whole story. What about the eye test?" Have you seen the Steelers' offense? With only two touchdown passes on 72 (!) pass attempts, Roethlisberger belongs nowhere near a fantasy lineup until something with that offense clicks or until one of the three rivers is found to be a tributary of the fountain of youth.

Running backs I love in Week 3

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (at Chiefs)
Before the season, I declared Ekeler my 2021 Fantasy Ride or Die and -- if I'm being honest -- the ride has started a little slower than I would have liked. If it were up to me, Ekeler would be RB1 right now, 50 points ahead of his nearest back, and I'd be in the midst of a nationwide gloating tour titled, "Told You! Matthew Berry's One-Man Smugtacular!" I mean, I'm definitely trying that with Jalen Hurts, but it's not the same. All the tour shirts have Ekeler's picture on them, I'm getting squeezed on concessions, it's a whole thing. I need Ekeler to be the guy I declared him to be at the start of the season because, so far, he is merely RB7, so the tour shirts remain in storage (for now). But I'm interviewing opening acts and trying to find discount plastic cups because that will change soon. As early as this week, in fact. I have him ranked as RB2 facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed a league-high 5.65 YPC and four rushing touchdowns to running backs so far. I expect Ekeler to get into the end zone in this one, too. He has received 100% of the Chargers' running back carries in goal-to-go situations so far this season. Yes, it seems he's the Chargers' Ride or Die, too. Hmm. Wonder if the Chargers want to go out on tour with me?

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (at Vikings)
The Seahawks blew a 15-point second-half lead at home last week to fall into last place by themselves in the NFC West, which is tough because the other three teams are 2-0. But on the plus side, Carson is included on the Week 3 Love list. So doesn't everything seem just perfect now, Seattle fans? Great! Glad I could help. And I have more good news: Dating back to last season, Carson has either a touchdown or at least 75 scrimmage yards in seven of his past eight games. He should hit one or both of those marks again Sunday facing a Vikings defense allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs this season. With more than 80% of Seattle's RB touches in both games this season, the always underrated Carson (except here at Smugtacular HQ) is getting big-time volume and is an easy top-eight play for me this week.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (at Jaguars)
#FreeChaseEdmonds! Edmonds is freed! Sort of? Edmonds has at least 13 touches in both games this season, including four or more catches in each. I wish it were more, but still. Add his pass-catching ability to the fact that he's averaged 5.45 yards per carry on the season ... and then consider that he gets to play Jacksonville this week and, well, Chase Edmonds is both his name and a description of what I expect that awful Jags defense to be doing all day Sunday. Top-20 play this week.

Others receiving votes: I'm starting to think even I could be productive in that Ravens run game. Ty'Son Williams is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has at least 90 scrimmage yards in both games this season, while his Week 3 opponent, the Detroit Lions ... well, they're the Detroit Lions. You get it. If only this game were on Monday Night and then maybe Ty'Son could be this week's #MondayNightMiracle. ... So I was only eight years or so off on my prediction for when Cordarrelle Patterson would break out in fantasy. Sometimes I just see wayyyyyy too far into the future. Wait 'til you hear my Tom Brady ranking for 2035. Anyway, Patterson, now on the Falcons, is averaging more than 10 touches and 65 scrimmage yards this season. He even got two red zone targets last week. With his talent, any amount of consistent opportunity with the ball in his hands makes him a flex consideration in fantasy, especially against a Giants defense that is bottom 12 in rushing yards allowed. ...You probably hate Tony Pollard ... if you're an Ezekiel Elliott manager, that is. Pollard has earned the touches he's getting and there are no signs that workload will decrease. Last week, Pollard touched the ball on 76% of his snaps and we expect another heavy passing game against Philly. ... What are the Dolphins going to do? Let Jacoby Brissett throw it a ton? Exactly. Brissett is a solid enough backup, but he's a backup for a reason. It's already a conservative offense, and on the road in Las Vegas, I expect the run game to take charge for Miami, with Myles Gaskin leading the way with a decent amount of passing-game usage. Considering Gaskin put up 169 scrimmage yards and two TDs on the Raiders in Week 16 last season, I like him as a flex this week. ... Different team, same logic: Expect David Montgomery to get a heavy workload in Justin Fields' first start in the NFL.

Running backs I hate in Week 3

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Eagles)
The Eagles limited Mike Davis to 49 yards on 15 carries in Week 1 and Elijah Mitchell to 42 yards on 17 carries in Week 2. I'm not saying Elliott is no better than Davis or Mitchell, just that Philly's run defense is good. And so is Tony Pollard. Let's start with the Birds. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is allowing the third-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. No doubt the loss of DE Brandon Graham hurts, but I still expect them to play strong run defense. Just like I expect Dallas to attack the edges with Pollard, who has more than twice as many gains of 10-plus yards this season than Zeke (seven to three) on eight fewer touches. If you have Elliott, I can't imagine benching him -- I have him ranked 15th -- but still, that's a far cry from where he was drafted. Better days are ahead for Elliott, but Pollard is going to be a thing this year, and Zeke is not a top-10 play for me in Week 3.