Offensive linemen may not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To start the year we leaned on projected versions of our win rates based on the players expected to play along the line of scrimmage for every offense and defense. Once games began, those preseason projections become our priors -- which we then update with actual win rate data for every team.
Below we break down the Week 3 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Baltimore Ravens backfield and Lamar Jackson (at Lions)
Ravens projected run block win rate rank: 4th
Lions projected run stop win rate rank: 30th
After a shaky week 1, Baltimore got its run blocking game back - leading to over 6 yards per carry in their dramatic Sunday night victory over the Chiefs. Patrick Mekari, who started at right tackle (for Alejandro Villaneuva, who was covering for injured Ronnie Stanley at left tackle) put in a strong 82% run block win rate (12th-best among tackles in Week 2) in his debut at the position. All of that is a great sign for Ty'Son Williams, Lamar Jackson, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, or whoever ends up carrying the ball for Baltimore going forward. And they have another easy matchup in Week 3 as they face the Lions (who allowed four touchdowns to Aaron Jones last week, though three were through the air).
Detroit has only given up 3.85 yards per carry this season, but their run stop win rate is just 25th (and with their preseason prior, we predict they'll be 30th-best going forward). Another efficient ground game is on the horizon for Baltimore.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (at Bills)
Washington projected run block win rate rank: 1st
Bills projected run stop win rate rank: 18th
As you can see from the ranks above, this is really just about what Washington is doing up front as opposed to the Bills run stopping unit that has vastly exceeded expectations. In the preseason I projected Washington to have the 6th-best run blocking offensive line but they've flown up to No. 1 opening holes for Antonio Gibson -- who also ranks 7th in most expected yards per carry according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
The stars here have been tackles Samuel Cosmi and Charles Leno Jr, while the Bills are largely untested against the run outside: they've only faced six runs outside the tackles all season.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (vs. Bears)
Browns projected run block win rate rank: 11th
Bears projected run stop win rate rank: 28th
We normally talk about the Browns in the bottom-half of this story because their offensive line is a better at pass blocking than run blocking, but against the right opponent they can show up here, too. At first glance the Bears don't look like the right opponent: they've allowed a stingy 3.33 yards per carry. But they rank 21st in success rate against the run, and their run stop win rate is way down at 28th.
The scary thing here is that a big reason the Browns are so efficient on the ground is because Chubb in particular outperforms the blocks in front of him: since the start of 2020 no running back has gained more yards per carry over expectation than Chubb, per NFL Next Gen Stats. So if he gets great blocking, his efficiency could kick up even more.
Disadvantageous Matchups
Las Vegas Raiders backfield (vs. Dolphins)
Raiders projected run block win rate rank: 32nd
Dolphins projected run stop win rate rank: 4th
This is the worst projected run blocking matchup thus far of the season!
The Raiders' highest-ranking offensive lineman in run block win rate is tackle Kolton Miller who is 50th out of 66 tackles in the category. Again: that's their best.
Last week when the Raiders played the Steelers -- who rank third in projected run stop win rate, one spot above Miami -- Drake and Peyton Barber averaged 1.3 and 2.5 yards per carry, respectively.
For Miami: there hasn't been one dominant run stopping superstar, but linebacker Elandon Roberts has been an asset in that department.
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (vs. Jets)
Broncos projected run block win rate rank: 23rd
Jets projected run stop win rate rank: 1st
The Jets did allow Damien Harris to break a long touchdown run, but they also held him to 62 yards and kept him under his prop total for the week of 73.5. It remains an imposing defense for opposing running backs, though in fantasy this is mitigated by the fact that teams playing the Jets often have a positive game script.
The big surprise for Denver is that Garett Bolles, who ranked 17th in RBWR last season among tackles, has slipped to 60th so far this season. It's possible it's just a two-game blip, but it's worth keeping an eye on. His pass blocking has remained strong - he's in the top 10 in PBWR, just like he was last year.
Notable absence
Bryan Bulaga, Los Angeles Chargers
Bulaga was out last week but he was a big part of the reason why our preseason prior for the Chargers' ground game was as strong as it was. Him being missing is a downgrade for both run and pass blocking.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (vs. Bears)
Browns projected pass block win rate rank: 1st
Bears projected pass rush win rate rank: 21st
The Browns' offensive line is starting to run away with the pass block win rate crown just two weeks into the season.
This is like an inverse of the Raiders' run blocking situation: the worst pass blocking Browns offensive lineman thus far this season has been Wyatt Teller, who ranks 13th out of 66 qualifying guards. The worst! J.C. Tretter is among a tie for league leader at PBWR at center and Jedrick Wills Jr. would lead all tackles in PBWR if he played a few more plays to qualify (he missed part of Week 1) without a loss.
It's going to take a heck of a pass rush to disrupt Mayfield in a hurry and I don't think Chicago is it. Khalil Mack is a sack threat but not a consistent PRWR superstar and Akiem Hicks is dangerous but not overwhelming inside.
Cleveland represents the only significant pass blocking mismatch this week, so we're going to dive right into the other extreme already.
Disadvantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Eagles)
Cowboys projected pass block win rate rank: 29th
Eagles projected pass rush win rate rank: 7th
An unexpected development so far this season: Dallas has struggled with pass protection, and the culprits are the tackles. La'el Collins currently ranks last among tackles in pass block win rate, though he is currently serving a five-game suspension. His replacement last week, Terence Steele, was below average in Week 2 -- though he mostly faced Joey Bosa. The real shocker is Tyron Smith, who is 53rd out of 68 tackles in PBWR thus far.
The result is that Prescott is getting the ball out far quicker than he has in previous years: his average time to throw in 2021 is 2.42 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, well below 2.77 seconds last year and 2.88 the year prior.
Pass rush-wise the Eagles have come close to their projection -- we had them as the 7th-best pass rushing unit in the preseason and they've bene 9th thus far (and we still project 7th-best going forward). Javon Hargrave is the only player in the league with a higher PRWR as a defensive tackle than Aaron Donald thus far, albeit on far fewer snaps.
Jacoby Brissett, Miami Dolphins (at Raiders)
Dolphins projected pass block win rate rank: 30th
Raiders projected pass rush win rate rank: 12th
Miami's offensive line woes have carried over from last season, and it's the interior where the problem mostly lies: guards Robert Hunt and Solomon Kindley both rank in the bottom 10 among guards in PBWR.
But the matchup to watch in this game is Yannick Ngakoue (4th in PRWR as an edge player) vs. Austin Jackson (48th in PBWR among tackles along the left side of the offensive line. The Raiders pass rush has vastly exceeded expectations (preseason projection was 26th; thus far they're tied 7th) and Ngakoue is a big reason why. Maxx Crosby (15th) is making noise at edge, too.
Notable Adjustments
Taylor Lewan, Tennessee Titans
Lewan's status for Week 3 is unknown as of this writing, but he missed Week 2 with a knee injury suffered in pre-game warmups. In 2019 Lewan was 10th in PBWR among tackles, though he hasn't been as good in the six games he's played since then (though again, only six games).
Brandon Shell, Seattle Seahawks
Shell's been solid so far this year, ranking 15th in pass block win rate as a tackle before spraining his ankle toward the end of Seattle's Week 2 loss. Seattle's pass protection has fallen short of expectations: we projected them to finish fourth in PBWR to start the season but they've only ranked 17th thus far. Shell isn't a superstar but losing him wouldn't help.
Sack Watch
Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Dolphins)
I've already mentioned these two but they both have a great opportunity to take down the quarterback in Week 3. Both Dolphins tackles -- Austin Jackson and Jesse Davis -- are below average in pass block win rate and Brissett has taken sacks at a 7.6% clip in his career, about two percentage points above average.
Harold Landry, Tennessee Titans (vs. Colts)
The Titans are either facing sack-happy Carson Wentz or a fourth-rookie in Week 3, which ought to be a boon for Landry and the Titans pass rush. The Colts offensive line has also fallen short of expectations, ranking just 26th in PBWR so far this season. Landry plays opposite the right side of offensive line, so he'll either get Julie'n Davenport or Braden Smith, but both have been below average in PBWR this season.
Haason Reddick and Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers (at Texans)
Carolina gets an underperforming offensive line in front of a rookie quarterback on Thursday -- a good chance to pull down some sacks. Brian Burns and Reddick are both in the top 20 of pass rush win rate from the edge, and play both sides. Burns figures to get a little more Laremy Tunsil so if I had to bet one in Week 3 it would be Reddick.
Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Bengals)
Let's be honest: anyone facing the Bengals has a great chance to get a sack. Joe Burrow has the worst sack rate in the league despite the fact Cincinnati's tackles are performing fairly well in PBWR. So in reality the sack chances for T.J. Watt (assuming he plays), Alex Highsmith or Melvin Ingram are all fairly high here. But I'm calling out Heyward because it's the interior of the line that's been more of a weak point, and that's not even counting guard Xavier Su'a-Filo's injury.