Welcome to the Week 3 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start options, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player may be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Washington Football Team @ Buffalo Bills
This game will feature a pair of very good defenses and projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair. Josh Allen is off to a slow start, but the reigning top-scoring fantasy quarterback has handled a ton of volume and remains a strong fantasy starter.
Devin Singletary has emerged as the Bills' lead back, but he's best viewed as a flex with Zack Moss back in the fold. Moss scored twice in Week 2, but he needs more touches to warrant flex consideration.
Stefon Diggs is the only lineup lock among Buffalo's wide receivers, but Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are both flex options in deeper leagues. Dawson Knox is a name to monitor, but we need consistent volume before considering him for our TE slot.
QB Taylor Heinicke impressed in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, but he's a poor fantasy play against a good Buffalo defense.
Antonio Gibson is off to a slow start, but consider that he's playing on 64% of snaps and is on pace for 323 touches. This comes after he produced top-10 fantasy numbers in 2020 while playing on only 47% of snaps and managing just 206 touches. Better days are ahead, but this is a tough matchup, so consider him a solid RB2. J.D. McKissic has some deep-league PPR appeal, especially since Washington is an underdog.
Terry McLaurin is a lineup lock, but he also has a tough matchup and could be shadowed by star corner Tre'Davious White. He's the only Washington wideout who should be in lineups. Logan Thomas has played on 98% of Washington's snaps over his past 12 games and remains a mid-to-back-end TE1.
Over/under: 43.6 (12th highest in Week 3)
Win probability: Bills 72% (sixth highest)
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns
The Browns are home favorites this week against a Chicago team led by a quarterback making his first NFL start. First-round pick Justin Fields struggled through the air (60 yards on 13 attempts) against the Bengals in Week 2, but he did rack up 31 yards on 10 carries. Fields' rushing prowess makes him a viable (albeit risky) start in superflex formats.
RB David Montgomery and WR Allen Robinson II are the only lineup locks among Chicago's skill position players. Darnell Mooney has been targeted 15 times in two games, so he's on the deep-league flex radar, but volume in the passing game might be lacking with Fields under center. We will need to see some actual production from TE Cole Kmet before we even consider him in fantasy.
The Browns will be without receivers Jarvis Landry and possibly Odell Beckham Jr., which, along with a run-heavy scheme, limits Baker Mayfield to fringe QB2 territory. Incredibly, Nick Chubb is the lone lineup lock for Cleveland -- and that's despite a tough matchup against a Chicago defense that showed well against Rams and Bengals backs. Kareem Hunt is no more than a PPR flex option.
Beckham would also be on the flex radar, if he's able to play. No other Browns wide receivers should be in lineups. The likes of Anthony Schwartz, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins would be risky deep-league flex options, even if Beckham is out. Austin Hooper and David Njoku are only options in 2-TE leagues.
Over/under: 47.4 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Browns 73% (fifth highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions
The Ravens are a big road favorite this week after upsetting the Chiefs on Sunday night. Baltimore's defensive injuries help the possibility that this will be a high-scoring game. QB Lamar Jackson's big Week 2 cements him as a strong fantasy play, especially in a good matchup against Detroit.
Jared Goff leads the league in passing attempts (93) and is QB9 in fantasy points, but it's hard to imagine he continues producing with his legs (60 yards on seven carries) considering his previous career high for a season is a mere 108 yards. Consider him as a back-end QB2 for now.
At running back, D'Andre Swift is clearly your best option from this game. Ty'Son Williams has looked sharp, but 32% of the designed runs and 11% of the targets aren't enough to sustain consistent fantasy production, so he's more of a borderline RB2. Jamaal Williams and Latavius Murray will get some runs, but both are best viewed as flex options.
Marquise Brown has scored eight touchdowns in his past 10 games and is the only lineup lock at wide receiver in this game. Sammy Watkins is on the flex radar. Tyrell Williams (concussion) was placed on IR, so Quintez Cephus is a deep-league flex dart throw. T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews are weekly lineup locks at tight end.
DFS Alert: We're getting the Monday Night Football discount on Hockenson this week, as DraftKings pricing was released prior to his big game against Green Bay. At $5,200, Hockenson is $3,000 less than top-priced Travis Kelce. Hockenson has been a top-three scorer at tight end in both weeks, reaching 21 points in each game. He ranks second at the position in targets (20) and first in receptions (16). Baltimore's defense, meanwhile, has allowed the most fantasy points, targets, receptions and yards to tight ends after being demolished by both Kelce and Darren Waller.
Over/under: 49.2 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Ravens 77% (fourth highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
The 0-2 Colts are headed to Tennessee to face off with a 1-1 Titans squad that is fresh off an impressive comeback victory at Seattle in Week 2. This had the potential to be a relatively high-scoring affair, but with Carson Wentz (ankle sprains) looking doubtful, the Colts may struggle to hang in the game with Brett Hundley and/or Jacob Eason under center.
Ryan Tannehill has yet to produce a top-20 fantasy week this season and should be viewed as only a solid QB2 as he leads Tennessee's run-heavy offense. Hundley and Eason could both get run under center, but neither should be close to lineups.
Both lead backs -- Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor -- are lineup locks. Taylor has yet to score a touchdown, despite a league-high expected total of 3.3 based on usage. Consider Nyheim Hines as a PPR flex option. A.J. Brown is a lineup lock despite a slow start, and Julio Jones and Michael Pittman Jr. (12 targets in Week 2) should be in lineups in most leagues.
Zach Pascal has scored three touchdowns in two games, but his 16% target share in a low-volume pass offense is concerning. Jack Doyle's eight-target showing in Week 2 launches him into the TE2 mix, but he's not yet a starter in 12-team formats.
Over/under: 46.5 (10th highest)
Win probability: Titans 68% (ninth highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
The highest-projected game of Week 3 features Patrick Mahomes and the 1-1 Chiefs against Justin Herbert and the 1-1 Chargers. Both starting quarterbacks should be locked into lineups. Yes, that includes Herbert, whose slow start to 2021 has left him without a top-20 fantasy week.
The AFC West showdown also includes a pair of must-start running backs. You're never benching Austin Ekeler and, though he hasn't played well so far, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has played on 69% of Kansas City's offensive snaps. If that continues, better days are ahead.
Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen and the red-hot Mike Williams are lineup locks at wide receiver. Believe it or not, Williams (44) has more fantasy points through two weeks than either Allen (34) or Hill (43). Mecole Hardman's eight-target Week 2 is a good sign, but he hasn't scored more than 11 fantasy points in any game since Week 8 of the 2020 season.
We're never benching Travis Kelce or Jared Cook, who would be TE6 in fantasy points if not for losing a touchdown on a teammate's illegal shift last week. Cook is a borderline starting option.
Over/under: 54.5 (highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 71% (seventh highest)
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots
The 1-1 Saints are traveling to New England to take on the 1-1 Patriots in what projects to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week. Jameis Winston tossed five touchdown passes in Week 1, but he crashed back down to earth with only 8.3 fantasy points at Carolina in Week 2. He and rookie Mac Jones (QB29 in fantasy points) belong nowhere close to lineups.
Alvin Kamara is an obvious lineup lock, but Patriots RBs Damien Harris (39 carries, but only four targets through two games) and James White (13 targets, but only nine carries) are borderline RB2 plays.
This game is ugly from a pass-catcher standpoint. Jakobi Meyers is your best bet at flex, but he has thus far turned 16 targets into just 82 yards and zero touchdowns. There's still hope for a Marquez Callaway breakout, but facing a tough New England defense on the road isn't the time to try him in your flex. Nelson Agholor put up a 5-72-1 receiving line in Week 1 but stumbled to 3-21-0 in Week 2. He's still a risky flex.
At tight end, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry have combined for zero top-15 fantasy weeks thus far and belong on benches. After catching two touchdown passes on 11 snaps in Week 1, Juwan Johnson predictably plummeted to a 1-23-0 receiving line on 18 snaps in Week 2. He doesn't belong in lineups just yet.
Over/under: 41.7 (15th highest)
Win probability: Saints 53% (14th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Two of the four remaining winless teams will face off in New York this week with the struggling Falcons set to take on the Giants. Daniel Jones has put together a pair of 20-plus fantasy point outings and is a viable streaming option in a terrific matchup against the Falcons' struggling defense. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, is QB28 through two weeks and should be benched against a decent (perhaps good) Giants defense.
Is this finally the week for a Saquon Barkley breakout? I think so. Barkley didn't produce much against very good Denver and Washington defenses, but he played on 83% of the snaps in Week 2 and now has a terrific matchup against Atlanta on 10 days' rest. He should be in lineups.
Cordarrelle Patterson is a top-10 fantasy RB (seriously), but note that his 2-TD Week 2 came while playing on only 35% of the offensive snaps. Mike Davis, meanwhile, has played on a hefty 68% of Atlanta's snaps and ranks third in targets and 12th in touches among running backs. If the usage stays the same, Davis will be better and Patterson will regress moving forward. Davis is the better RB2 option this week.
Calvin Ridley is a lineup lock and you'd be hard-pressed to bench Sterling Shepard (16 receptions, tied for the NFL lead) right now. Kenny Golladay has been targeted 14 times through two weeks and remains on the WR3 radar. Darius Slayton has racked up 197 air yards on 13 targets through two games, but he's a boom/bust deep-league flex. Russell Gage (ankle) is expected to miss this game, so there are no other wideouts here worth your attention.
Over/under: 46.1 (11th highest)
Win probability: Giants 67% (10th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The entire AFC North is sitting at .500, but that will change this weekend as the Steelers host the Bengals in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. Ben Roethlisberger is not fully healthy, but fantasy's QB27 through two weeks is not a starting option anyway. The same goes for QB22 Joe Burrow, who isn't a streaming option against a good Steelers defense.
Najee Harris found the end zone in Week 2 and sits first in snaps and third in routes among running backs. Joe Mixon, meanwhile, sits no lower than fourth at the position in carries, touches and yardage. Both are must-starts.
Despite a slow start for a few of them, this game is loaded with WR2 and WR3 options. For the Steelers, Diontae Johnson (second in the NFL with 22 targets) is expected to be out because of a knee injury, which opens up more targets for JuJu Smith-Schuster (21% target share, up slightly from 20% in 2020) and Chase Claypool (20% target share, up from 16% in 2020). Both are starting options against a shaky Bengals cornerback situation. James Washington will fill in for Johnson, but he's a risky flex, especially with Ray-Ray McCloud in the mix.
For the Bengals, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have each been on the field for at least 82% of the team's passing plays, and the trio has combined for a 71% target share. Eric Ebron has been limited to three targets while splitting work with rookie Pat Freiermuth, so there are no fantasy-viable tight ends from this game.
DFS Alert: The Steelers have a very good defense, but that didn't stop the WR units of both Las Vegas and Buffalo from producing big-time fantasy production during Weeks 1-2. The Steelers rank in the top five in targets, receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position, having surrendered 220-plus yards to both units. That bodes well for Cincinnati's strong WR unit this week, as $5,400 Chase (WR20 in fantasy points, but WR30 in DraftKings pricing), $5,100 Higgins (WR25, WR35) and $4,700 Boyd (WR53, WR44) all check in as strong value plays.
Over/under: 43.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 69% (eighth highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The 2-0 Cardinals are heavy road favorites against a rebuilding 0-2 Jaguars squad this week. Kyler Murray, fantasy's top-scoring QB, should never be on benches. Trevor Lawrence sits sixth in the league in pass attempts but has only four TDs and a whopping five INTs to show for it. The 2021 first overall pick belongs on benches until his play improves.
Chase Edmonds has yet to find the end zone, but Arizona's lead back is 11th among backs in scrimmage yards and is a back-end RB2. James Robinson has 22 touches in two games (egregious), but his 66% snap share keeps him on the RB2 radar. James Conner has racked up 24 carries but zero targets and is only a flex option in deep non-PPR leagues.
Never bench DeAndre Hopkins. Marvin Jones Jr. has emerged as a must-start, as he currently ranks sixth at wide receiver in routes (80), 10th in targets (19), first in OTD (1.8), first in end zone targets (four) and 16th in fantasy points (36). Teammates DJ Chark Jr. (4-105-1 on 14 targets) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (47 yards on 15 targets) are much less reliable starts.
Rondale Moore has a healthy 20% target share and sits ninth among wideouts in receiving yards (182) and 17th in fantasy points (35), which is incredible when you realize that he's 86th in routes run (36). Three Arizona wide receivers have played on more snaps and run more routes than Moore, so while a return to earth is imminent, he's nonetheless on the WR3 radar.
A big Week 2 has vaulted Maxx Williams onto the TE2 radar, but beware: He didn't catch a single pass in Week 1.
DFS Alert: Murray is the top-priced QB at DraftKings this week, but after what we saw in Weeks 1-2, he's still a value at $8,300. Murray was the top-scoring fantasy QB both of the first two weeks, averaging 33.5 points. He has an incredible nine touchdowns in two games. The Jaguars' defense allowed 21-plus fantasy points, 291-plus passing yards and exactly two passing TDs facing Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater.
Over/under: 49.1 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 82% (highest)
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
The 2-0 Broncos are heavy home favorites this week against the rebuilding 0-2 Jets. The Broncos' defense is very good and the Jets' offense is struggling, so this unsurprisingly projects as the lowest-scoring game of Week 2.
Teddy Bridgewater has played well but doesn't yet have a top-10 fantasy week. The Jets have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks thus far. Bridgewater is a streaming option in deeper leagues, but Zach Wilson (5 INTs, 10 sacks and 2 TDs in two NFL games) is arguably the worst fantasy option among Week 3's 32 starting quarterbacks.
Game script might allow for extra carries from Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams this week, but the two are splitting the workload right down the middle. As such, it's tough to trust either as more than a flex. Michael Carter and Ty Johnson led the Jets' backfield committee in Week 2, but Tevin Coleman is still involved and this is a very hard matchup. No Jets running back should be in lineups.
With WR Jerry Jeudy out, Courtland Sutton racked up 12 targets in Week 2. He'll be busy again this week against the Jets' work-in-progress corners. Tim Patrick has scored a touchdown in both games this season, but he has yet to clear four targets or 39 yards, so he and KJ Hamler (seven targets in two games) belong on benches. Noah Fant has finished as fantasy's TE7 in both weeks and should be locked into lineups.
After an impressive 5-97-2 receiving line in Week 1, Corey Davis struggled to a mere 8 yards on five targets in Week 2. The bust risk is high in this rookie-led offense, especially this week against Denver's terrific defense. Davis is no more than a flex, whereas Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder (or, if he remains out, Braxton Berrios) should be on benches.
Eliminator Alert: You don't want to get too cute in Eliminator leagues, especially in Week 3, but Denver is looking like the sharp play this week. Denver's win probability is second highest in the league and it's the second-highest projection for the Broncos for the rest of the season. Their strong defense is a huge edge, especially after Wilson threw four picks at New England in Week 2. Check out our Eliminator Cheatsheet for the full Week 3 rundown.
Over/under: 40.1 (16th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 78% (second highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are off to an impressive 2-0 start and are heavy home favorites Sunday against the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins (1-1). Derek Carr has opened the season with a pair of 24-plus-fantasy-point efforts, but considering he has literally never managed a top-10 fantasy season, it's hard to trust him as anything more than a good QB2 and occasional streamer right now. Jacoby Brissett will fill in for Tagovailoa after struggling his way to 169 yards on 40 pass attempts (4.2 YPA) against Buffalo in Week 2. He's nowhere close to the QB1 radar.
Lock in Josh Jacobs as a RB2 if he returns from injury this week, but if not, Kenyan Drake (seven carries and six targets on 45 snaps in Week 2) and Peyton Barber (13 carries and no targets on 19 snaps) will again handle the workload. In that scenario, Drake would be the preferred RB2 play against a Dolphins defense that has already allowed 321 yards and three touchdowns to opposing backs. Myles Gaskin hasn't reached double-digit carries since Week 16 of the 2020 season, but he has seen five targets in four straight games. His role places him as a flex option.
This game does not feature any clear top-40 WR options. DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle have reached six targets in both of Miami's first two games, but William Fuller V is expected back this week. Especially with Tagovailoa out, this is a tough group to trust as anything more than a flex. Henry Ruggs III busted out with a 5-113-1 receiving line on a career-high six targets in Week 2 and has joined the flex discussion. Teammates Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards, however, have not.
Darren Waller should never be on benches, and while Mike Gesicki took a step forward with six targets in Week 2, he's not a TE1 option right now.
Over/under: 48.7 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Raiders 77% (third highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams
Perhaps the most anticipated game of the week features the 2-0 Buccaneers traveling to face the 2-0 Rams. This projects as a very close, high-scoring affair, which suggests plenty of fantasy output. Los Angeles' terrific defense makes Tom Brady a riskier play than usual, but he remains a back-end QB1 option. The same goes for Matthew Stafford, who is QB12 for the season and, not coincidentally, right on that QB1 fringe here in Week 3.
The RB situation is a bit shaky for both squads. Darrell Henderson Jr. is battling a rib injury that puts his game status in jeopardy. He's RB9 in fantasy and has been an every-down player when healthy, but this is a tough matchup for him, as most of the production Tampa Bay has surrendered to backs has been via the pass. Henderson does most of his damage as a rusher. Nonetheless, if Henderson plays, he's a midrange RB2. If he's out, Sony Michel vaults into the RB2 mix, as he'd likely handle a huge percentage of the backfield touches with Jake Funk also involved.
Leonard Fournette is the clear lead back for Tampa Bay, but that has yet to allow him a top-20 fantasy week this season. He's a borderline RB2, whereas Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard aren't good options.
Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are all lineup locks at wide receiver, and I wrote up thorough analysis of their matchups in this week's Shadow Report. Antonio Brown (COVID-19 list) is doubtful for this week, but even if he were to play, he'd be just a boom/bust flex after a one-catch effort in Week 2, followed by a missed week of practice.
Rob Gronkowski has scored two touchdowns in three consecutive games and is suddenly right back in the top-five mix at tight end. Tyler Higbee's one-target showing in Week 2 was ugly, but his 99% snap share on the season paints a rosier picture. He's a borderline TE1.
Over/under: 53.5 (second highest)
Win probability: Rams 51% (16th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
The 1-1 Seahawks are in Minnesota to take on an 0-2 Vikings team looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Especially after both defenses struggled in Week 2 -- Seattle blew a big lead to Tennessee, while Minnesota lost 34-33 at Arizona -- this has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Russell Wilson is a lineup lock, whereas Kirk Cousins, who has a pair of top-12 fantasy weeks under his belt this season, is a streaming option.
You're never benching RBs Dalvin Cook (73% snap-share) or Chris Carson (70%), especially since neither has much competition for touches.
Tyler Lockett has put up 26-plus fantasy points in both of his first two games and has another terrific matchup in Week 3. He and DK Metcalf (despite the fact that he'll see plenty of Patrick Peterson) are lineup locks. Justin Jefferson is third on his own WR depth chart in terms of fantasy points this season, but he and Adam Thielen (fantasy's WR4) both remain lineup locks.
K.J. Osborn has been one of the early-season surprises, having posted receiving lines of 7-76-0 and 5-91-1. He's still tough to trust with Cook, Thielen and Jefferson all in the mix in a run-first scheme, but the second-year receiver is nonetheless on the flex radar. Meanwhile, Tyler Conklin (eight targets this season) and Gerald Everett (four) aren't close to the TE1 radar right now.
DFS Alert: Cook checks in at a hefty $8,400 at DraftKings this week, but he's nonetheless a strong value in this matchup. Cook sits among the top five in carries and rushing yards at the position, while also ranking ninth in targets. He has handled 20-plus carries in both games so far and has now reached 82-plus scrimmage yards in 14 straight games (with 15 TDs during this span). The Seattle defense has allowed the most RB fantasy points thus far, surrendering the most receptions, receiving yards and scrimmage yards, as well as three touchdowns.
Over/under: 53.1 (third highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 53% (13th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Following a "get right" win over Detroit, the 1-1 Packers are headed to San Francisco for a Sunday night showdown with the 2-0 49ers. Aaron Rodgers underwhelmed during his first game and a half of 2021, but a strong finish in Week 2 cements his QB1 status, even in a tough environment. Jimmy Garoppolo sits 18th in fantasy points through two games and will be very hard to start with Trey Lance also getting work.
Like Rodgers, Aaron Jones got back on track with a big Week 2 showing and he remains a lineup lock. He's Green Bay's clear feature back, with AJ Dillon (nine carries and one target) lacking anything close to standalone value. The injury bug has struck the 49ers' backfield, so we're in wait-and-see mode for now. If Elijah Mitchell plays, he'll be your best flex option. If he's out but Trey Sermon (concussion) plays, the third-round rookie will be a risky but intriguing flex option.
The 49ers did a nice job against both Detroit and Philadelphia wide receivers, but Davante Adams is always an elite play. Deebo Samuel leads all wide receivers in receiving yards (282) and touches (17), so he has obviously moved into must-start territory. Those are the only two wideouts worth starting from this game, as Brandon Aiyuk (two targets this season) remains way off the radar.
George Kittle remains a lineup lock despite a slow start, but Robert Tonyan (whose 2021 target total of seven is barely above his single-game career high of six) is still a TD-dependent borderline TE1.
Over/under: 48.6 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Packers 52% (15th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Monday Night Football features an NFC East showdown between the 1-1 Cowboys and 1-1 Eagles. Both defenses have played better than expected thus far. Although the Cowboys' front seven will be missing several key components, this projects as an average game in terms of scoring. QBs Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott have combined for three top-10 fantasy weeks already this season and both are lineup locks.
Miles Sanders had a strong Week 1 and a quiet Week 2, but he's played on 66% of the Eagles' snaps, which keeps him locked into the RB2 mix. Ezekiel Elliott has scored seven fewer fantasy points than backup Tony Pollard, but he holds a 106-41 edge in snaps, so expect the fantasy output to improve. Elliott is a borderline RB1 in this matchup; whereas, Pollard's limited usage slots him in as a risky flex. The same goes for Sanders' backup Kenneth Gainwell.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are both top-12 in fantasy points this season and are obvious lineup locks. Dallas has allowed 45-plus fantasy points to the opposing WR unit in both of their games this season, but as discussed in this week's WR/CB matchup column, DeVonta Smith actually looks like a downgrade against Trevon Diggs this week, with Jalen Reagor an upgrade. Both are flex options.
If Zach Ertz (reserve/COVID-19 list) is out this week, Dallas Goedert will be a solid TE1. If Ertz plays, Goedert is more of a good TE2 option. Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin are both outside the top 20 in fantasy points as their timeshare has limited fantasy output.
Over/under: 48.3 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 57% (12th highest)
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
Week 3 kicks off with what projects to be a low-scoring affair between the 2-0 Panthers and a 1-1 Texans squad that will be without starting QB Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Davis Mills (Taylor's replacement) should be nowhere close to lineups against a Carolina defense that showed well against Zach Wilson and Jameis Winston. The same goes for Sam Darnold -- who has played well this season -- but a lack of rushing (6-6-1) has left him without a weekly fantasy finish better than 14th.
Christian McCaffrey has produced 22-plus fantasy points in 18 of his last 19 games and is the best asset in fantasy. Houston's four-man RB committee has led to Mark Ingram II, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead all sitting outside the top 30 in fantasy points. Only Johnson (6) has more than three targets and only Ingram (40) has more than 13 carries. None belong in lineups.
DJ Moore (eight-plus targets and 80-plus air yards in seven consecutive games) and Brandin Cooks (ranked 11th in fantasy points and second in air yards this season) are the lineup locks at wide receiver, though we're knocking Cooks a bit with Taylor sidelined (nine of Mills' 17 targets went to Cooks in Week 2, but resulted in only a 4-28-1 receiving line).
Robby Anderson is the only other fantasy option in this game. Anderson was a lineup lock in 2020, but he's currently just third on the Panthers (tied with rookie Terrace Marshall Jr.) with nine targets. Other than a 57-yard touchdown in Week 1, he's produced only three catches for 38 yards. On the plus side, his 192 air yards lead the team. Consider Anderson as a flex option.
With Nico Collins and Danny Amendola out, Chris Conley and Anthony Miller (assuming he makes his Houston debut) are deep sleepers. Though the data suggests the matchup is "poor" because of Houston's big Week 1 against Jacksonville, the Panthers D/ST is an elite streaming play this week against Mills and this depleted WR corps.
Over/under: 43.2 (14th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 60% (10th highest)