Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also not mortgaging future weeks by burning up all your good teams for later. Injuries and teams either overachieving or underachieving will always open up more opportunities later, so early in the season there is less incentive to worry about saving teams.
To make these recommendations, I look at a combination of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), point spreads from Caesars Sportsbook, injury reports, upcoming schedules and any other stats that can potentially provide an edge.
You can find all the rules here. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
This week, two teams stand out above the rest: the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens. They are the two biggest betting favorites, and each team is playing its easiest game for the rest of the season according to FPI. While they are the two chalkiest picks, both are below 25% as of Tuesday evening.
The Arizona Cardinals are the third-most popular pick this week, but FPI isn't quite as high on them, ranking them as the seventh-biggest favorite. The Jaguars look like the worst team in the NFL, so the Cardinals aren't a bad play. But given their popularity, a Week 7 home matchup against the Texans in a few weeks, and a potential look-ahead spot to the Rams next week, I would fade that chalk.
I prefer the Carolina Panthers if your strategy is simply to fade the Jaguars or Houston Texans every week. The Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs are potential contrarian plays, being picked by fewer than 5% of entries each. Out of the six biggest favorites this week, they are the only two teams not being selected by at least 10% of entrants. However, the Browns have a juicy Week 11 home matchup against the Lions, so I prefer to save them. As for the Chiefs, they are a viable option most weeks, and with other strong candidates on the board this week, they are a good team to save for later in the season.
The Buffalo Bills are the only other team favored by more than a touchdown. But the Bills might be the most valuable team in the NFL to save for the future. There are five weeks the rest of the season where FPI rates them as the biggest favorite. The only other team that even has two such weeks is Kansas City (twice). Wait until next week when the Bills host the Texans, or wait for matchups later against the Jaguars, Falcons or Jets (twice).
Top picks
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
The Broncos are both the biggest FPI favorites and the biggest Vegas favorites this week, so naturally they are the top Eliminator pick this week. While New York's defense has outperformed expectations (19th in efficiency), the offense sits dead last. Zach Wilson is last in the NFL in Total QBR, and he's been burned by an offensive line allowing the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Until the offense shows signs of life, the Jets are one of the easiest teams to fade in Eliminator, especially on the road.
Denver is playing its home opener, so expect a raucous crowd to support a Broncos team that ranks second in efficiency. The Broncos do have several home games remaining against the bottom half of the NFL, including a Week 14 game against the Lions, so there are reasons to save them, but on paper, they are the safest pick of the week.
Line: Broncos -10.5
FPI favorite: 77%
Eliminator Challenge: 22% selected
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions
Per FPI, this is the best opportunity to use the Ravens all season. The Bengals and Colts are the easiest home games on their schedule, and both weeks, there are several better options on the board. While the Ravens are coming off an emotional win over the Chiefs, the Lions are on a short week coming off a tough loss to the rival Packers where they fell apart in the second half.
The Lions are last in defensive efficiency with one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. Offensively, Detroit actually ranks fourth in yards per rush, but the Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, meaning the Lions will likely need to rely on their anemic passing game. John Harbaugh is 36-3 outright as a favorite of at least eight points in the regular season, including 14-0 with Lamar Jackson. Early in the week, Denver and Baltimore appear to be selected by a similar amount of Eliminator Challenge entries, so I'll give a slight edge to picking the Broncos, but if the Broncos gain more steam as the week goes on, the Ravens are a fine 1B option to the Broncos' 1A.
Line: Ravens -8.5
FPI favorite: 71%
Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
Outside of the Raiders, it's hard to find two teams that have exceeded expectations more than the Panthers and Texans. But after Tyrod Taylor's injury, I expect the Texans to play like the team everyone expected entering the season. Taylor was phenomenal in his six quarters of play, leading the NFL in Total QBR. Davis Mills struggled off the bench in his place, and he has a short week to prepare for his first career start.
The Panthers have been the most efficient defense in the NFL through two weeks, shutting down the Jets and Saints. They will only be a bigger favorite one more time the rest of the season -- a Week 14 home game against the Falcons. If you can handle the stress of picking a Thursday game, the Panthers are a fine choice.
Line: Panthers -7.5
FPI favorite: 63%
Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected