Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point-per-reception) scoring.
For Week 3, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Weeks 1-3, 2020 full-season data are used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2021 data (three weeks in the books at that point), and then starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Daniel Jones, New York Giants (versus Atlanta Falcons). He has had his moments in the season's first two weeks, and in totaling a fourth-most-among-quarterbacks 50.84 fantasy points, he did so while playing the second game on only three days' rest. Jones faced plenty of pressure from the Denver Broncos' and Washington Football Team's defenses in those games, too, as his 41.3% pressured rate on his dropbacks is tied for second-highest among qualifiers. This is a much softer matchup for him, not to mention he'll be on a league-most nine days' rest between his Weeks 2 and 3 games. The Falcons have the league's third-worst quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and have allowed eight passing scores compared to zero interceptions, resulting in a league-high 58.10 fantasy points afforded the position. They also surrendered the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2020. Jones has legitimate top-10 potential this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Pittsburgh Steelers). He flopped while facing a seemingly easy matchup against the Chicago Bears in Week 2 -- though he went 5-for-6 with a pair of touchdowns to wrap up that game immediately after his interceptions on three straight pass attempts. Sure, the Steelers have afforded opposing quarterbacks a middling 41.38 fantasy points through two weeks, but they also faced Josh Allen and Derek Carr, hardly the easiest schedule. Additionally, Allen earned 4.40 of 17.20 points on rushing plays, while Carr tallied 6.44 of 24.18 on a single throw to Henry Ruggs III in which he easily outmatched cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, a Week 1 healthy scratch acquired at the very end of the preseason. This Steelers defense, despite its cornerback issues, should still be a relatively stingy unit, and it did hold Burrow to a mere 12.52 fantasy points, his second-worst score in any of his nine full games, in their only meeting in 2020. He's not even a top-25 quarterback for me in Week 3, and that can be problematic if you're relying on him as your QB2 and your QB1 isn't in all that much better matchups shape.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Ty'Son Williams, RB, Baltimore Ravens (at Detroit Lions). Although the Ravens have used a running-back-by-committee approach in two games following the season-ending losses of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to torn ACLs, Williams appears to have a slight lead on the rest of the pack. He has played 49% of the offensive snaps, has a 28% share of the rushing attempts and has been the team's most heavily used back in the receiving game. Latavius Murray, by comparison, has played 34% of the snaps and has a 25% rushing attempt share, while Devonta Freeman, active only for Week 2, played only 15% of the snaps and had 2 of 41 team carries in that game. Even if Murray serves as a goal-line vulture -- he was the only one of the three to convert, scoring on his only opportunity while Williams went 0-for-2 (including a fumble) -- this is a pretty good matchup in which to speculate on the prospective touches leader, Williams. Elijah Mitchell scored 16.40 PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 1, and Aaron Jones pummeled it for 41.50 points on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
Unfavorable matchup: Damien Harris, New England Patriots (versus New Orleans Saints). Jones might've had a great game against the Lions, but in Week 1, he was limited to only 9 rushing yards on five carries against these Saints. Sure, Christian McCaffrey totaled a plenty-respectable 24.70 PPR fantasy points against this defense last week, but almost half of them came on his five receptions, and that still ranks only 24th among his totals in his 36 games played since the beginning of the 2018 season. Thanks in large part to defensive end Cameron Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis, the Saints continue to stifle opposing running backs, ranking top-five through two weeks (the only defense that can claim that) with 1.52 yards before contact and 1.23 yards after contact per rush. Harris is off to a good start, with 25.10 PPR fantasy points while playing 49% of the Patriots' offensive snaps, but this is a much tougher matchup for him than the ones he saw in Weeks 1-2.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans). The Titans have afforded opposing wide receivers a league-most 129.70 PPR fantasy points, and while that has been the result of their facing a large number of attempts, note that their 2.58 points-per-target average is also third-highest in the league. This defense has afforded four different wide receivers 20-plus points in the season's first two weeks, with cornerback Janoris Jenkins performing especially poorly in coverage (15 targets, 73.3% completion rate, one touchdown). As a frequent perimeter receiver -- 75% of his routes run through two weeks -- Pittman should align frequently against Jenkins, strengthening his matchup. Pittman, by the way, has played 99% of the Colts' offensive snaps and has a team-leading 22.9% target share, establishing himself as their clear WR1 while T.Y. Hilton is sidelined.
Unfavorable matchup: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (at Buffalo Bills). It's generally difficult to bench a receiver the caliber of McLaurin, who has played every one of 118 snaps and has a team-leading 27.7% target share, but this matchup is one to tuck away in daily fantasy or if you're in a shallow league and/or with wide receiver depth. The Bills have been rather stingy against the position thus far, affording the ninth-fewest PPR fantasy points (61.0) while holding each of Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster to fewer than 15 points despite their combined 90 routes run and 23 targets. A big part of the reason has been the play of cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson, who combined have allowed 11 catches for 124 yards and no scores on 26 targets over 136 coverage snaps. McLaurin will probably have trouble finding many openings against this secondary.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Maxx Williams, Arizona Cardinals (at Jacksonville Jaguars). Week 3, which includes no bye weeks, might be an early time to start taking tight end fliers, but Williams is one of the week's most interesting, and he's super-cheap in daily fantasy if you need that in order to make your lineup work. He played 79% and 73% of the Cardinals' offensive snaps and ran 21 and 23 routes in the season's first two weeks, but his fantasy stats couldn't have had much greater contrast, as he was shut out by the Titans in Week 1 yet totaled 16.40 PPR fantasy points on seven targets against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2. That uncertainty does make him tough to trust, but Kyler Murray has been spreading the ball around plenty thus far, he's playing at about the highest level he has in his NFL career, and this matchup is a golden one for tight ends. The Jaguars, after all, surrendered 10.70 PPR fantasy points to Pharaoh Brown in Week 1, and 19.70 combined to Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam in Week 2. Williams is as risk/reward as they come, but if you're in a pinch, the potential reward is much higher than it is for other non-top-15 tight ends.
Unfavorable matchup: Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots (versus New Orleans Saints). The Saints are similarly skilled at containing tight ends as they are running backs, and that Smith has been sharing snaps, routes and targets with Hunter Henry at the position hardly helps his fantasy prospects. Smith has played only 63% of the offensive snaps, has run 18 fewer routes than Henry (50-32) and has 10 targets to Henry's seven. In Week 1, Robert Tonyan could muster only 2.80 PPR fantasy points on four targets against this defense, despite his Green Bay Packers playing the vast majority of that game from behind, and in Week 2, the Saints limited Dan Arnold to 8.50 points on four targets. Smith brings similar size and red zone appeal to Arnold, but there's not much reason to expect better than top-15 status with this matchup.