Matthew Berry's Week 1 Love/Hate: 5 lists of 5 to kick off the season

I am, by any definition, a creature of habit.

I have a specific meal I order at every restaurant. I have T-shirts older than my daughters, and I wear them often. I have a specific routine for almost anything I do, including writing: how I do research; how I prep; how I make notes; how I come up with the premise of the intro; how I write that intro; how I decide on the players; when I start writing; and the order in which I write the column.

In fact, for years, my offseason writing schedule had a very specific schedule: Do a Love/Hate off of free agency, do a Love/Hate off of the NFL draft and then do 100 Facts, followed by Draft Day Manifesto, the big preseason Love/Hate and, of course, 10 Lists of 10.

I like my schedule. It has a rhythm to it. Writing is hard for me, and I get a lot more relief from being done with writing than I do joy from actually doing it, but at least I have my schedule.

Well, for a variety of reasons, the schedule changed this past year, and after the preseason Love/Hate, there was time to do one more column: 100 Facts or 10 Lists. I chose 100 Facts because it's my favorite column to write every year and, well, sometimes these columns are for me. Most of them are for you, but some of them are for me.

So, it was a weird summer for me and also related to work; I was out of sorts. And as I am trying to get my equilibrium back as we embark on another fantasy football year, I heard from you guys.

The support, as always, was overwhelming. "Where's 10 Lists?" you asked. "I like 10 Lists better than 100 Facts." "The only thing you write that's any good is 10 Lists of 10, and you even screwed that up, Berry. Good job."

Well, since the NFL season officially starts Thursday night, we are out of time, and doing a full-on 10 Lists of 10 would be way too long, even for this column.

But I want to do a version of it, I appreciate the people who are fans of it (regardless of how they express it) and, well, I need to get back to my schedule.

So, for the first and possibly only time, here are five lists. Of five.

List One: Five players who were not drafted in 50% of ESPN leagues and should be picked up before Sunday's games start.

1. Trey Lance, QB, 49ers

2. Tony Jones Jr., RB, Saints

3. Elijah Moore, WR, Jets

4. Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, Panthers

5. Gerald Everett, TE, Seahawks

List Two: Five stats from last year's Week 1 games that were not in any way indicative of how that player's season turned out. (Whatever happens this week, don't be too quick to celebrate or panic.)

1. Darius Slayton had six catches for 102 yards on nine targets and two touchdowns, totaling 28.2 points and good enough for WR5 on the week. He was WR63 on a points-per-game basis for the season.

2. Sammy Watkins caught seven balls for 82 yards on nine targets, scoring once, to tally 21.5 points. He was WR10 for the week but WR64 on a points-per-game basis for the season.

3. James Robinson got 16 carries and went for 62 yards, with just one reception for 28 yards, to give him 10 points as he finished RB30 for the week. He caught 48 balls the rest of the way with 10 total touchdowns en route to a RB7 finish for the season.

4. Mitchell Trubisky's 24.3 total fantasy points were good enough for QB7 for the week. He lost the starting job to Nick Foles by Week 4, and though Trubisky did play 10 games, he was QB26 for the year on a points-per-game basis.

5. Justin Jefferson caught two balls for 26 yards on three targets: 4.6 points, WR78 for the week. And, of course, he was WR6 for the season.

List Three: The five best fantasy team names (that I can print) from my followers on the Fantasy Life App:

1. Please Get Dakcinated (@bb)

2. Only Fants (@redrifle21)

3. Kobra Kyler (@over_analyzer, @ffaddictz)

4. Najee by Nature (@conman, @sputnick612)

5. Bishop Sycamore (many)

List Four: Five bold predictions

1. Austin Ekeler finishes as the No. 1 RB in fantasy. What I'm thinking: My fantasy ride or die this year, it all starts with a much improved Chargers' offensive line, and Ekeler will be used very similarly to Alvin Kamara. And Ekeler is due for regression in the touchdown department (meaning he should score more even without additional opportunities).

2. Russell Wilson outscores Patrick Mahomes. What I'm thinking: Well, Wilson already did that last season for the first eight games. He has it in him, especially if he continues running the way he did last year. A new up-tempo offense installed by Shane Waldron lets Russ finally cook, and cook he does.

3. Antonio Brown outscores teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. What I'm thinking: Not that long ago, Brown was considered the best wide receiver in the NFL and in fantasy football. Now, during his second campaign in this Buccaneers offense and with Tom Brady very invested in his success -- I mean, Brown lived at Tom's house for crying out loud -- Brown gets fed this year and his talent handles the rest.

4. Tyler Boyd is the top-scoring Bengals wide receiver. What I'm thinking: The least buzzy of all Cincy receivers, Boyd also is the most experienced, and he was a top-15 receiver last year with Joe Burrow as his quarterback.

5. Logan Thomas outscores George Kittle. What I'm thinking: Increased target competition and inconsistent QB play hamper Kittle slightly, while Thomas improves on last year's breakout season with an upgrade to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and a more dynamic offense that will stretch the field.

List Five: Five more of the best team names (that I can print!) from my followers on the Fantasy Life App:

1. Gaskin for a friend (@ciperr0497100)

2. DJ Moore Cowbell (@hotlockett)

3. Cee Dee Cee Guidelines (@rglover1103)

4. The Catalina Wine Mixon (@msprague52)

5. 50 Shades of Trey (@methedmann)

As I said, I am a creature of habit, so even though you might have heard this before, it bears repeating: This column is most definitely NOT a start/sit column. This is a column about expectations and matchups. Players I "love" are those who have exceptional matchups and I expect them to exceed their normal level of production, even if they are a relatively obvious fantasy starter. "Hates" aren't necessarily players I would bench, but rather players who have bad matchups and for whom I would lower expectations.

Hopefully this guidance helps for lineup decisions in not only traditional fantasy leagues but also DFS and legal-gambling player props. Thanks as always to The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column.

Let's get to it.

Quarterbacks I love in Week 1

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (at Raiders)
You know what they say about being in Vegas. Always bet on purple. Wait, what? Look, I get it. Jackson was a fantasy disappointment last season, especially for those who took him as QB1 in the second round. And now injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Rashod Bateman this preseason mean Jackson's job running the Baltimore offense won't be any easier. But I'm back in on L-Jax as a fantasy superstar this season and as a top-three play at the position in Week 1. He always starts hot (in the past two season openers, he's gone 37-for-45 with 599 passing yards, 8 TDs and no interceptions), and against an overmatched Raiders defense (26th in passing defense last season, 30th in scoring defense), I get the feeling this will be a "Fine, I'll do it myself" game from Lamar. Over the past two seasons, only Derrick Henry has more 50-yard rushing games (29) than Jackson's 24. With one of the highest over/unders on the board, expect a lot of scoring in this one, much of it from No. 8. They say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, and that includes your fantasy points if you don't start him! What? It's the first write-up of the first guy in the first week. Calm down. This will get better. Probably. Maybe. Eh, might want to bail now.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cowboys)
My puppet boss Norby on The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+ always yells at me for not talking enough about big-name football stars. Actually, he probably yells more about how I don't talk about LeBron enough, and also how much of a train wreck the show is and how he wishes it were anything but this show -- but third is definitely that I don't talk enough about big football names. Anyway ... I don't know if puppets can read, but if he can, he'll love this section because it's about Brady facing the Cowboys. The names don't get any bigger than that. And over/unders don't get much bigger than the 51 this game has, either. That's significant because over the past four seasons, Brady (since he turned 40) has averaged 23.1 PPG in games in which at least 50 points are scored. Brady has also scored at least 20.5 PPG in each of the past three season openers. Tom Brady, as big a name as there is in football, is on my Week 1 Love list. Oh, and in case my puppet boss is still reading, I want you all to know that LeBron and the Lakers play on ESPN just six weeks and one day from now. Check it out! (Fingers crossed I get a raise now.)

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Falcons)
Will Hurts improve his accuracy and efficiency as a passer in 2021? Don't know. Don't care. What I do know, and what fantasy managers should care about, is the fact that Hurts averaged 23.0 PPG in his final four games last season (his first four career starts). That number jumps to 25.0 PPG if you remove the Week 17 game, from which he was pulled early (enraging most of the civilized world). That's right: Hurts put up those kinds of fantasy numbers even in a season in which he completed just 52% of his passes. Of course, many of his passes were 15 or more yards downfield and his No. 1 wide receiver was a former college quarterback, but no one is ready to have that conversation. This week he faces the Falcons, and while it's a new season with a new coach, I don't expect that Atlanta D to be too far removed from the unit that allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. It's a basic rule of writing. If you do an intro that makes a bold prediction that Jalen Hurts finishes as the No. 1 QB in fantasy, he makes the Love list in the same week.

Others receiving votes: Is 2021 the year fantasy managers finally start believing that Ryan Tannehill can help them win? Honest guess: no. But I'll keep mentioning stats like this anyway: Since taking over as the starter in Tennessee in Week 7 of 2019, Tannehill is QB4 in total points and QB7 in PPG. He also has the third-most passing touchdowns in that time frame. Quick quiz: Are Murphy, Alford and Wilson a law firm or the names of Arizona's top three corners? The fact that you can't say for certain without Googling should tell you something. In a high-scoring game, I like Tannehill a lot in Week 1. ... Do I love Kirk Cousins the fantasy quarterback? No. But do I love anyone who qualifies at the QB position in fantasy who gets to throw footballs to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen against a Cincinnati defense that allowed touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate last season? Why yes, yes I do. ... Do you believe in a Sam Darnold revenge game? What about a Sam Darnold "Thank you for trading me away, I'm forever grateful" game? Either way, in a home-opening debut with DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, preseason darling Terrace Marshall Jr. and some guy named Christian McCaffrey facing a work-in-progress defense (he said kindly), I like Darnold as a cheap DFS play or high-upside streamer.

Quarterbacks I hate in Week 1

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Washington)

I'm not predicting great calamity to befall Justin Herbert in 2021. He's my QB10 entering the season for a reason. But there might be a slight sophomore slump. In fact, the slump might have already begun. Last season, Herbert scored fewer than 17 fantasy points in four of his final six games. Maybe fatigue set in, maybe defenses started to adjust, maybe -- and perhaps most likely -- the regression was caused by him shaving off his luscious locks. Take it from a guy who hasn't had luscious locks in more than two decades: You never want to mess with the hair gods. Whatever the reason, for a West Coast team traveling east for a 1 p.m. start against a team that was top-six in the NFL last season in sacks, QB hits, passing yards allowed, fewest TD passes allowed and fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, this is a tough matchup. And that's before you realize the WFT gets Landon Collins back and signed William Jackson III this offseason for an even tougher secondary. I have Herbert outside my top 10 for the week.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Bills)
Roethlisberger adopted a new diet this offseason, so in honor of that, here is my Week 1 Ben Roethlisberger-inspired fantasy recipe: Take one part Roethlisberger and place him on your bench. That's it. Enjoy! But if you're the kind of person who likes to read the nutritional label, here you go: Buffalo is a 6.5-point favorite in this game, and Roethlisberger has averaged 15.2 PPG in his past 10 losses, compared to 18.9 PPG in his past 10 wins. Gone are the days of Road Ben vs. Home Ben. It's now Win Ben vs. Loss Ben. Avoid Loss Ben. Lots of unwanted fantasy calories from Loss Ben.

Running backs I love in Week 1

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Texans)
Back in April when the Jaguars spent a first-round pick on Travis Etienne Jr., I didn't expect Robinson to be on the Week 1 Love list. Now that we're here, however -- and Etienne is not -- you can't help but love Robinson in this matchup. Don't forget that in 2020, Houston's defense allowed the most rushing yards, most rushing touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to running backs. And this year, it seems like it's actually trying to tank (welcome to New Orleans, Bradley Roby!), so you know, party on, J-Rob, in a road game in which the Jaguars are favored. I have Robinson as a top-five play this week.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (vs. Chargers)
It's the most wonderful time of the year. That's right: It's Antonio GibSZN, baby! "Matthew, you're not really going to use that term all the time, are you?" Yeah, I am. Because not only is it Antonio GibSZN, it's also You'd Better Get Used To Me Using The Term "GibSZN" SZN. So I have no choice. Now, on to Analysis SZN: With a full year under his belt as an NFL running back (after being primarily a WR in college), Gibson will get even more usage in 2021. That's great news for his fantasy managers, as Gibson always produced when getting work. In his seven games with 15 or more touches last season, GibSZN averaged 19.6 PPG. Even though J.D. McKissic is around, the preseason usage hinted at more passing-game work for Gibson, and last season the Chargers were tied for the third-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs. In what should be a close game, GibSZN should see plenty of work in WFT's home opener.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Bills)
One of the reasons Ben makes the Hate list this week -- and there are many -- is Najee Harris. As a true three-down back, the Steelers' best chance at slowing down the Bills' high-powered attack is lots and lots of Harris. Even if the Steelers trail in this game -- they're almost a touchdown underdog -- Harris' pass-catching means he'll still be heavily involved in the offense. Since 2017, eight rookie RBs have scored 18-plus fantasy points in their NFL debut. I say Harris makes it nine on Sunday.

Editor's Note: Gus Edwards was originally on this list, but has been removed following news of his season-ending injury.

Others receiving votes: If the Rams are going to move the ball against Chicago, my expectation is they'll find more success with dump-offs and pitch-outs than going up the gut, which should bode well for Darrell Henderson Jr. We still don't know how this backfield will play out, but at least for this week, I like Henderson over Sony Michel as a viable flex. ... I know, I know, many fantasy seasons have been laid to waste by trusting a Bill Belichick running back, but Damien Harris had 90-plus scrimmage yards in every game he had at least 15 touches last season. And with Cam Newton out of the picture, there are more goal-line carries to be had. With a rookie QB making his debut, expect Bill to try to take pressure off with a strong run game, especially in close situations. No team had a higher red zone rush percentage than New England last season. ... With D'Andre Swift at potentially less than 100% and an offense that figures to be trailing against San Fran (the Lions are more than a touchdown underdog), Jamaal Williams and his second-highest catch rate among qualified running backs since 2019 figures to factor heavily into their pass game. ... Speaking of that 49ers-Lions game, you already know I like San Fran in this one. The Niners will run regardless (they are top-four in RB fantasy points the past two seasons), but especially against an undermanned Lions defense, both Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon should be in lineups. ... Someone has to run the ball for the Houston Texans, right? It's as good a matchup as Houston will see this season, and as sad as it makes me to go away from a player like David Johnson, who was once fantasy royalty, I like the younger and more recently productive Phillip Lindsay to be the Texans running back you want Sunday as a deeper-league flex play.

Running backs I hate in Week 1

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (vs. Broncos)

There's a lot we don't know about the 2021 NFL season. But here are a few things we do know: Saquon Barkley is likely to see his first action less than a year after tearing his ACL; he has a game next Thursday night as well; and there remain many questions about an offensive line that, last season, allowed Barkley to gain only 34 yards on 19 carries before getting hurt. If you drafted him, you likely have to start him, but man would I lower expectations in a game in which he should get limited snaps and isn't a great matchup. I have Barkley just outside my top 20 this week.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (at Rams)
I'm on record saying I don't think Montgomery is a top-tier running back. Heck, I'm on record, cassette, CD, 8-track ... I might even be on a Zune saying that. I've said it a lot. But his inclusion on the Hate list is less about being negative on Montgomery for the season and more about being positive on Aaron Donald and the Rams' defense. Last season, the Rams allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, a résumé that includes holding Montgomery to just 69 yards on 19 touches in last year's matchup between these two teams. Damien Williams has been one of my favorite late-round running backs, not only because he's talented but because I expect he'll have a decent role in the passing game, which also limits Montgomery's upside. On the road in prime time, with Andy Dalton under center against one of the league's best defenses, as more than a touchdown underdog, well, yeah, I think the Bears will be needing to throw more than they want to in this one.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Ravens)
If you've read Love/Hate in the past, you've probably picked up on the fact that a player's inclusion in the column almost always has to do with expected usage and that week's matchup. Well, Jacobs gets negative marks in both categories this week. Usage: Kenyan Drake is in town and Jacobs has never -- NEVER! Like, NEVER IN HIS CAREER -- scored double-digit fantasy points in a game in which he had fewer than 15 touches. Matchup: Baltimore's defense is one of the league's best. It's why they allowed running back rushing touchdowns last season at the second-lowest rate. Jacobs is unlikely to be involved in the passing game. And as you know from the Lamar Jackson write-up, I like Baltimore on Monday night, which means more Drake in the pass game than Jacobs running.

Pass-catchers I love in Week 1

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (vs. Cardinals)
Here's how I look at this game: Patrick Peterson is gone ... Malcolm Butler is retired ... Darqueze Dennard is on IR ... and A.J. Brown is awesome at the sport of football. Sometimes you don't need to overthink this stuff. Remember, since entering the league, Brown leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per target. You already know I think this game will be a shootout, so a Tannehill-Brown stack deserves serious consideration in DFS, and I have Brown as a top-five play.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (at Bengals)
I'll say it again: a defense's performance a year ago doesn't mean it will necessarily perform the same way this season. Coaches change, players change, schemes change. Well, not in Cincy. The Bengals' defense is still terrible. I mean, actually, there is some change. They lost top cornerback William Jackson this offseason to my WFT. They changed for the worse! Cincinnati allowed the fifth-most touchdown passes to wide receivers last season, and Thielen led all players with 20 end zone targets. Don't be sad-am, start Adam. What do you want from me? It's late, it's Week 1 and I'm punch-drunk.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (at Colts)
I get it, Lockett is hit-or-miss. But that's why you have your old friend Matty B to help you forecast the hits and misses. This week looks like a hit. Last season, Lockett was top eight among wide receivers in red zone and end zone targets, while the Colts allowed the second-highest completion rate on deep passes. Lockett also tends to be a fast starter. In 2018, he averaged 16.7 PPG from Weeks 1 to 3; in 2019 that jumped to 20.6; and last season it hit 24.6. Lockett is firmly inside my top 15 and is more likely to be a hit than a miss on Sunday.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Vikings)
Joe Burrow is back, which means Higgins should be back in fantasy lineups. Don't forget, in his eight "full" games with Burrow last season, Higgins averaged 7.5 targets, 75.4 receiving yards and 15.6 PPG. Pretty impressive for two rookies. Ja'Marr Chase is likely to start slowly and Tyler Boyd is slated to get shadowed by Mackensie Alexander in the slot on Sunday, giving Higgins the best matchup in a game where Burrow should be throwing quite a bit.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at Giants)
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have tough perimeter matchups this week against James Bradberry and Adoree' Jackson, while Fant has a great matchup with Teddy Bridgewater's suspect throwing arm. Last season, Bridgewater ranked 27th among qualified quarterbacks in air yards per attempts. Fant should get plenty of dump-offs across the middle in this game. I have Fant as a top-eight play this week.

Others receiving votes: Sam Darnold reuniting with Robby Anderson might not move the needle quite like Ben Affleck and J.Lo, but it's worth remembering that they did have nice chemistry in 2018 and 2019. Many fantasy analysts referred to it as "better than 'Gigli.'" ... Antonio Brown scored a touchdown in three of his final four games last season, and Dallas allowed a league-high 27 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2020. I've been on record as saying Brown will be the fantasy comeback player of the year. Business is back to boomin'. ... Preseason is preseason, but Corey Davis had a 55% target share with Zach Wilson in the second preseason game, and I think this game with the Panthers has sneaky shootout potential. ... Tyler Higbee is finally, and officially, free from Gerald Everett stealing targets from him. And targets equal production for Higbee. He was fourth among TEs in yards per target last season. ... As dirt-cheap tight end streamers go, with Chris Herndon unlikely to play much, if at all, in this one, you could do worse than Tyler Conklin against the Bengals.

Pass-catchers I hate in Week 1

Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears (at Rams)
Look, if Robinson had to deal only with Jalen Ramsey shadowing him, that would be one thing. And if he had to deal just with Andy Dalton starting a game in prime time, that would be one thing. But both things? Yeah, you likely still have to start him, but this is the lowest I'll have Robinson all season. In his past two games vs. Ramsey, A-Rob is averaging 8.3 PPG.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns (at Chiefs)

Kenny Golladay admitted the offense might be slow to start since none of the weapons have really practiced together but thinks this group can be "special". #Giants

— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) September 2, 2021

It's hard to believe, but the last time Beckham had a season with 1,100 receiving yards or more than six touchdown receptions was 2016. That's the same year Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were the top two picks in the draft. That's the same year they released an all-female "Ghostbusters." That's the same year Pokemon Go was a thing. An eternity ago. Did you know that OBJ has played 23 games with the Browns and in that time frame he's WR39 on a points-per-game basis? Like, 23 games is a real sample size. Beckham still has the potential to reach his old level of production, but I doubt he'll explode out of the gate in Week 1. In each of the past two seasons, the Chiefs' defense ranked top four in fewest perimeter receptions, touchdown passes and completions allowed. At this point, I need to see it with Beckham before I am trusting him my lineup.

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants (vs. Broncos)
Daniel Jones will likely be under pressure behind a suspect offensive line, so it's unlikely he will improve upon his 30th-place ranking in percentage of passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield from last season (among qualifiers). Golladay's presence should help that some, but how much is realistic? Golladay has been banged up and has a tough Week 1 matchup against a Denver secondary bolstered by the addition of Pat Surtain II. So he's clearly on the Hate list for me this week. But fine, don't take my word for it. Take Kenny Golladay's: