Play the matchups, every week.
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
Week 1 represents the most difficult time all season in which to answer that question. Many sources reference only last season's statistics, which fail to account for offseason player and/or coaching movement, shifts in team schemes or simply a team's fortunes (or misfortunes) affecting its past-year numbers. Football changes all the time, and it's not like the preseason offers much help in sorting out this year's matchups, either, being that so much of that action involved backups and eventual cuts. It's therefore foolish to offer matchups numbers that exclusively reference 2020 regular-season or 2021 preseason statistics, at least not without context.
Here's another unfortunate truth about past-years' matchups data: Fantasy point totals against individual skill positions are useful, but they fail to account for the strength of schedules those teams faced. For example, the Arizona Cardinals, in 2020, afforded opposing quarterbacks 298.98 total points (18.69 per game), 16th-most in the league or almost exactly in the middle of that position's rankings. However, they faced only four quarterbacks all season that finished in the positional top 15 in either total fantasy points or fantasy points per game, while 8-of-16 opposing starting quarterbacks finished 2020 averaging fewer than 15 points per game.
If we adjust for their schedule, comparing their opponents' seasonal averages to their fantasy point totals in each of those 16 games, then the Cardinals were actually the second-worst defense against quarterbacks in 2020. You'd have definitely wanted to have your passer in the lineup when facing their defense.
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
For Week 1, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 1, 2020 full-season data is used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt, as mentioned above, as the rank is the much more important measure. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2021 data (three weeks in the books at that point), and then starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Atlanta Falcons). The Falcons finished last season the third-worst schedule adjusted defense against quarterbacks, and outside of the change in defensive coordinators from Jeff Ulbrich to Dean Pees, didn't change much in terms of their defensive personnel. Specifically addressing what Hurts brings to the table, the 2020 Falcons were especially weak against mobile quarterbacks, surrendering the fifth-most rushing fantasy points (70.4) to the position, multi-rushing-touchdown games to Dak Prescott (Week 2) and Taysom Hill (Week 13) and an 83-rushing yard performance to Kirk Cousins (Week 13). Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni might've danced around Hurts' QB1 status all preseason, but his ultimately (and predictably) chosen starter gets a cozy opening matchup, in a season where he'll have improved receiving depth. This matchup elevates Hurts' statistical ceiling to that of a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Unfavorable matchup: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Washington Football Team). Switching from offensive coordinator Shane Steichen's current quarterback to his former one with the Chargers, Herbert is in a considerably tougher season-opening spot than Hurts. The Washington defense is simply loaded, especially up front, where Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen accounted for 21.5 of the team's sixth-ranked 47 sacks in 2020. The addition of cornerback William Jackson, meanwhile, only made things tougher for opposing passers, severely diminishing the matchups appeal of Herbert's favorite outside receiver, Mike Williams. Last season, the only quarterback to manage as many as 20 fantasy points on passing plays against the Washington defense was Matthew Stafford (all 23.04 of his points in Week 10), and in the unit's final seven games, it afforded the position an average of 12.96 fantasy points. This is a matchups-oriented position and Herbert's registers as barely top-10 worthy.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers (at Detroit Lions). The Lions' run defense ranked dead last in touchdowns allowed (27) in 2020, not to mention afforded opposing running backs the most total PPR fantasy points (519.5) and the most schedule-adjusted PPR fantasy points (7.62 added per game), and they did little to address their shortcomings during the offseason, deciding that a full rebuild is wiser than patching holes with pricey free agents. This is one of the few sure-thing matchups to exploit at running back, and Week 1 is as strong a time as there is to trust Mostert, the 49ers' known commodity atop the depth chart. Sure, Trey Sermon could emerge as the team's starter during the course of the season, but in the one preseason game in which both appeared, Mostert started and dominated the opening series. The 49ers have indicated they'll lean more heavily upon their running game in 2021 than 2020, besides, so there should be plenty of opportunity for both.
Unfavorable matchup: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (versus Baltimore Ravens). The Ravens have been consistently stout against the run this century, including in 2020, when they afforded opposing running backs the 13th-fewest total PPR fantasy points (351.2) and 10th-fewest schedule adjusted PPR fantasy points (minus-1.81 added per game). They return Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams and Derek Wolfe from their defensive interior on the line, who combined for 265 run stops and 94 stuffs during the past three seasons combined. That's bad news for Jacobs, who, in addition to his Raiders bringing in the similarly skilled Kenyan Drake to cut into his workload, appeared to have lost a step in 2020 compared to his rookie 2019. This isn't a good matchup for a running back whose weekly touch total isn't yet assured, and you'd be wiser to trust comparable timeshare options facing weaker defenses.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (versus New York Jets). In Sam Darnold's first game since his trade by the Jets as well as his first against his former teammates, a "revenge game," as many like to term it, he'll reap the benefits of one of the league's strongest matchups across all facets of the passing game. While it's darned near impossible to make a case to activate Darnold, except in perhaps superflex/two-quarterback leagues, his wide receivers stand out in a big way, facing a defensive backfield that ranked eighth in the league in terms of schedule-adjusted PPR fantasy points allowed to the position (3.37 added per game). Since then, the Jets released Bless Austin, their top cornerback from 2020, putting the position in a probable rotation from among nothing but Day 3 draft picks or undrafted players from the past two draft classes. Anderson has every bit as much to gain in the "revenge game" category, but this is really entirely about the great matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: Kenny Golladay, New York Giants (versus Denver Broncos). The Broncos' defense was a middling unit against opposing wide receivers in 2020, ranking 17th with 574.2 total PPR fantasy points afforded the position with similar placement when schedule-adjusted (18th), which was a less modest ranking than some of the franchise's great defensive backfields of years past. The team made a big splash during the offseason, however, adding cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby via free agency and selecting Pat Surtain II with the ninth overall pick of the NFL Draft, significantly addressing the most glaring roster weak spot on that side of the ball. As Golladay and Fuller typically line up on the perimeter, they'll be a common in-game matchup during Week 1, which doesn't bode well after the former battled hamstring issues for much of the preseason. Golladay did average 14.73 PPR fantasy points in six games against Fuller and the Bears from 2017-20, but he's in a less pass-oriented offense now, and one with plenty of mouths to feed.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (at Kansas City Chiefs). Tight end is easily the toughest position to gauge in matchup terms every Week 1, due to changes in defensive schemes, personnel as well as teams' coverage strategies -- inside linebacker, free safety, slot cornerback, someone else? That's why it's best to go largely with skills at the position, though past years' data, coupled with offseason movement, can unearth an opening-week opportunity like Hooper. He'll face a Chiefs defense that both allowed the sixth-most total PPR fantasy points to tight ends (231.4) in 2020 and has an offense that draws opponents into pass-oriented approaches themselves. Free safety Daniel Sorenson, who had been the team's worst defender in coverage against tight ends last season, returns, but Tyrann Mathieu, one of the team's better defenders against them, does not. While Hooper has David Njoku present to steal some routes, the Browns should roll them both out on plays a decent share, and the matchup itself propels the former into potential top-10 status.
Unfavorable matchup: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (at New Orleans Saints). Only seven defenses were stingier to tight ends on a schedule-adjusted basis last season than the Saints (minus-1.47 PPR fantasy points added per game), who on only four occasions allowed a tight end as many as 14 points. Tonyan was one of those four, scoring 16.00 on five targets in Week 3, though that was an unusual week in which the Packers rolled out multiple tight ends on 39% of their offensive plays, with Marcedes Lewis and Jace Sternberger combining for 15.40 points themselves. While the Saints should have cornerback Marshon Lattimore covering top receiver Davante Adams for most of the game, Tonyan might still draw a fair share of unfavorable matchups against Malcolm Jenkins, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and/or Demario Davis.