Draft position is an annual source of stress for fantasy football managers.
While I often preach changing your league format to salary-cap style as a method of eliminate this, I also recognize the considerably larger time commitment involved and, therefore, the resistance. Sometimes, and in cases like these, deal with the stress we shall.
Ah, but stress no longer -- or, at least, let's decrease it for you. Each year, I map out a game plan for the first two rounds of your draft, illustrating the twists and turns with every selection in both 10- and 12-team leagues. Additionally, I provide my own recommended selection for each spot, an effective outline for your draft's early rounds and a window into what you should expect in subsequent rounds.
As always, this exercise is for an ESPN standard PPR (point per reception) league, so any reference to fantasy points scored follows suit.
Draft slot 1
Round 1 (Pick 1 overall): The top two picks in PPR leagues, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook, are almost universally regarded as such. In ESPN drafts thus far, neither has lower than a 2.8 Average Draft Position (ADP), and in National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) drafts, neither has been selected later than sixth overall. For me, this one comes down to the facts: In 2019-20, McCaffrey averaged 7.5 more fantasy points per game than Cook. That's too much to overlook, despite McCaffrey's nine fewer games played in that time.
Round 2 (Pick 20 in 10-team, Pick 24 in 12-team): The 1-spot is a great draft position to be in, with an outside chance at a top-12 running back (especially in a 10-teamer) or, in the worst-case scenario, a top-seven wide receiver (even in 12-teamers). Antonio Gibson or Najee Harris are dream outcomes, but more likely a team in this draft slot is looking at Joe Mixon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back. At wide receiver, the "gift" picks are DeAndre Hopkins or Calvin Ridley and the expected outcomes are DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson.
From a standpoint of the Round 2/3 turn, teams in this position -- especially in 12-team leagues -- should strongly consider one of the big three tight ends, with George Kittle (my preference) and Darren Waller (ADP's preferred No. 2) the two potentially remaining on the board. In those 12-teamers, picking a running back (McCaffrey/Cook), wide receiver and tight end with your first three picks can put you in a potentially tricky spot at RB2 -- it's not uncommon that these teams must reach for Javonte Williams at the Round 4/5 turn -- but it also can present an advantageous position should any from the Josh Jacobs/Chris Carson/Miles Sanders tier make it back to your pick. Considering the wide receivers typically on the board at picks 48 and 49, I'm almost never going wide receiver-wide receiver with picks 24 and 25.
Tristan's picks: McCaffrey/Metcalf (10-team league), McCaffrey/Jefferson (12-team league)
Draft slot 2
Round 1 (Pick 2): Assuming McCaffrey went first overall, this is the most no-brainer selection of your entire draft: Cook. He averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 2019-20 (second among RBs), and only four of 13 running backs who averaged 15-plus points in that time appeared in more games.
Round 2 (Pick 19 in 10-team, Pick 23 in 12-team): The 1- and 2-spots aren't much different in philosophy or available candidates in the second round, with the main exception being a greater chance of a dream running back-running back combination happening out of this draft position. This is the first spot at which the aforementioned Kittle and Waller should be considered in a 10-team draft, and it's a prime spot from which to take your preferred choice in a 12-teamer.
Tristan's picks: Cook/Mixon (10-team), Cook/Kittle (12-team)
Draft slot 3
Round 1 (Pick 3): Assuming McCaffrey and Cook went 1-2, this is another no-brainer selection. Alvin Kamara, No. 3 on that fantasy points-per-game list from 2019-20 (21.6) and with 29 games played, is the top choice. ESPN's ADP says this is a close race between Kamara (4.8 average) and Derrick Henry (4.9), but NFFC's measures say Kamara has been going almost a full pick sooner. Henry would be my pick in a non-PPR format, but it's Kamara in ESPN's standard setup.
Round 2 (Pick 18 in 10-team, Pick 22 in 12-team): There's an outside chance that a top-12 running back could make it back to this pick, more so in a 12-team league than a 10-teamer, but it's more likely this team should lean heavily toward wide receiver in Round 2. Ridley, A.J. Brown and Jefferson are pre-prime, already-elite options at the position who should commonly be found there. This is also the first point in a 12-team draft at which you should begin considering the Nos. 2 and 3 tight ends, Kittle and Waller (I personally prefer the former).
Tristan's picks: Kamara/Ridley (10-team), Kamara/Brown (12-team)
Draft slot 4
Round 1 (Pick 4): The fourth overall pick is the first at which you could consider going with a wide receiver or the top tight end, Travis Kelce, but it's still not advisable to do so, considering the presence of feature backs Henry and Ezekiel Elliott. I'd argue that if you're not a Henry or Elliott believer, Saquon Barkley and his top-three statistical ceiling -- his 20.8 career PPG is third among running backs during that three-year span, behind only McCaffrey and Kamara, and eighth best in history through three seasons -- makes more sense than Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill or Kelce.
Round 2 (Pick 17 in 10-team, Pick 21 in 12-team): Edwards-Helaire is the absolute last running back I'd consider in Round 2 of either league type, so if you happen to play in a league that drafts the position aggressively, be happy with Henry (or Elliott or Barkley, if you went in another direction) as your first pick and in knowing you'll have your pick from Hopkins, Ridley or Brown in a 10-team league, or Brown, Jefferson, Kittle or Waller in a 12-teamer. It's all the more reason to go Henry or Elliott at No. 4 overall.
Tristan's picks: Henry/Hopkins (10-team), Henry/Edwards-Helaire (12-team)
Draft slot 5
Round 1 (Pick 5): Elliott almost becomes the default pick here, though he'll have his detractors,. Most of them will recall his visibly having lost a step after Dak Prescott's season-ending Week 5 injury last season and/or worry that Prescott won't make a complete, immediate recovery from his ankle injury or might be limited by the shoulder issues that popped up at the onset of training camp. Elliott did, however, finish ninth in fantasy points among running backs despite the down 2020, and from 2016 to 2019, he had three of the 14 best single-season positional point totals. Adams, Hill, Kelce and Barkley are increasingly valid selections as Round 1 proceeds, but for me, this is clearly Elliott and his probability of a big-time rebound.
Round 2 (Pick 16 in 10-team, Pick 20 in 12-team): Simple mathematics demonstrates why this draft position is my favorite in 10-team leagues. There's a distinct drop-off after the top five running backs (and therefore overall picks) in my rankings for Round 1, as well as after the top 12 running backs, top three wide receivers and No. 1 tight end Kelce in Round 2. Add those positions and you get 16 players, for this No. 16 overall pick. Let the value come to you. One note: Elliott and Harris have the same bye week (Week 7), but that shouldn't discourage you in a 10-team league. They're an excellent backfield pairing, you should be able to get one or two more productive backs in the later rounds (if not off the waiver wire) to handle those weeks, and you'll be that much stronger in the other 12 or 13 fantasy regular-season weeks (depending on your schedule) having them both available.
Tristan's picks: Elliott/Harris (10-team), Elliott/Metcalf (12-team)
Draft slot 6
Round 1 (Pick 6): Assuming we're 5-for-5 on predicting the above running backs selected, the 6-spot becomes a personal preference draft position. Barkley, and to a lesser extent Austin Ekeler, is in play for those who like to build around running backs, though it's dangerous to leave such elite talent as wide receivers Adams or Hill or No. 1 tight end Kelce on the board. Adams, in particular, seems to have gotten a particularly tough shake in the early draft stages, presumably due to the threats of his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, retiring, which is no longer part of the equation. To better illustrate, Adams went 16th overall on average in June's NFFC drafts, with a high pick of sixth and low of 27th. In the past week in a nearly identical number of overall drafts, Adams went sixth overall on average with a high of third and low of 12th. The circumstances have dramatically changed, and deservedly so.
Round 2 (Pick 15 in 10-team, Pick 19 in 12-team): Fantasy managers who landed Adams or Kelce from the 6-spot in Round 1 will be thrilled in drafts where Gibson or Harris lasts until here. This is also the absolutely latest point that Stefon Diggs should last in a 10-team league, and an Adams/Diggs one-two punch presents an absurdly good start.
Tristan's picks: Adams/Gibson (10-team), Adams/Mixon (12-team)
Draft slot 7
Round 1 (Pick 7): This might be my favorite draft position of 2021. It's a premium place in which to select Kelce, the five-time defending tight end scoring leader who owns two of the five best tight end VBD seasons over just the past three years (the Value Based Drafting method of valuation compares a player's outcome to a fantasy league's replacement level). It's also a premium place to take the chance on Barkley's upside, though I'll admit that I'm more optimistic about his rebound prospects than most. Opting for Adams or Hill isn't the wrong direction, either. Part of my interest in the 7-spot is the Round 3 possibilities in a 10-team league -- and 12-team, to a lesser degree -- including Terry McLaurin, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery and often even Kittle or Waller.
Round 2 (Pick 14 in 10-team, Pick 18 in 12-team): If Barkley was this team's first-round choice, the second-round wrinkle is a heightened need for a more known commodity. Harris, for example, would provide you with a running back-running back starting punch that could rival that of anyone in your league, but it also presents you slightly greater risk -- Barkley's injury history and likely ramping-up process during the season and Harris' rookie adjustments to NFL competition -- than going with someone like Aaron Jones or Gibson at running back, or Hopkins or Ridley at wide receiver (more so in 12-team leagues). I'm a big fan of a Barkley/Jones, Barkley/Hopkins or Barkley/Ridley combination, if you can swing any.
Tristan's picks: Barkley/Jones (10-team), Kelce/Harris (12-team)
Draft slot 8
Round 1 (Pick 8): A nice thing about the 8-spot is that if your league is notorious for aggressively drafting running backs, such as in our late-June, half-PPR mock draft, you'll get your pick of one of the top two wide receivers, Adams or Hill, or otherworldly tight end Kelce. In retrospect, I wished I had taken Kelce from this spot in that mock, since he is a dream selection here, and I'd argue that in no league should he be allowed to sneak past this spot. More likely, an team picking eighth will be the one taking a chance on Barkley's upside, grabbing the leftovers from Adams/Hill or going the "safer" running back route with Ekeler or Jonathan Taylor.
Round 2 (Pick 13 in 10-team, Pick 17 in 12-team): What does the team that selects Kelce in the first round do in the second? There'll be a popular thought that a running back must be the pick, but I'm not so sure that's true. In the third round, it hasn't been uncommon to see Montgomery or Swift remain on the board until this team's pick, and it's also possible that in the second round this team could be gifted Diggs or in a 12-team league have either Hopkins or Ridley still on the board. I would try to get a running back second if I began with Kelce, but there are options here.
Tristan's picks: Kelce/Nick Chubb (10-team), Barkley/Ridley (12-team)
Draft slot 9
Round 1 (Pick 9): Ekeler, Hill and Taylor are far and away my preferred picks from this position, but one of them is practically guaranteed to be gone. One thing a team drafting out of the 9-spot should keep in mind when deciding is that, especially with the rise in popularity of the zero-RB strategy, a team drafting 10th or even 11th or 12th in a 12-team league might go wide receiver-wide receiver in between this team's first two selections. That doesn't mandate that you take Hill, but it's something to keep in mind if you're dead set on exiting your first two rounds with at least one wide receiver.
Round 2 (Pick 12 in 10-team, Pick 16 in 12-team): If you went wide receiver in the first round, running back is the way to go here. If you didn't, then there's a great deal of likelihood that Diggs, my No. 3 wide receiver, is there for the taking. Incidentally, I've listed Hill and Gibson as my preferred picks for a 12-team leaguer picking ninth, an effective dream start to your draft, and ESPN's ADP says you have an excellent chance at landing the pair from this spot. This is another draft position where coupling your bye weeks is possible -- my recommended Ekeler/Diggs picks have the same bye (Week 7) -- but it's a lesser worry when coupling running back/wide receiver, running back/tight end or wide receiver/tight end byes.
Tristan's picks: Ekeler/Diggs (10-team), Hill/Gibson (12-team)
Draft slot 10
Round 1 (Pick 10): While I'm no proponent of the zero-RB strategy in ESPN 10-team standard leagues, any league that leaves both Adams and Hill to the team residing in the 10-spot should be ashamed of itself. Two top-shelf wide receivers with the bookend picks is a draft-day coup, and that's before getting into the remote possibility that Kelce makes it there with either or both. While the running back pool available with picks 30 and 31 looks considerably less attractive than those available here, getting top-shelf wide receiver talent more than makes up for it. Conversely, even going running back-running back here, with some combination of Ekeler, Taylor, Chubb or Jones, isn't a strategy you should fear, considering the wealth of wide receiver talent that has typically lingered until the picks 30-35 range.
Round 2 (Pick 11 in 10-team, Pick 15 in 12-team): Things aren't much different for this team than the one drafting ninth, especially in a 12-team league. After all, using ESPN's ADP, Robert Woods, Amari Cooper and Adam Thielen are the wide receivers who should commonly be available with the 34th overall pick (Round 3 from this spot in a 12-teamer), while Jacobs and Carson are the running backs frequently found there. On sites other than ESPN, things skew even further toward the wide receivers' favor with that pick. In a 10-team league, Taylor, Chubb and Jones might well be available; and in a 12-teamer, there's no shame in taking Harris here, though Jones is still my preference.
Tristan's picks: Hill/Taylor (10-team), Ekeler/Jones (12-team)
Draft slot 11 (12-team leagues)
Round 1 (Pick 11): It's not uncommon to see an Adams or Hill make it this far in a 12-team draft, but the most likely scenario has teams in the 11-spot looking at a running back like Taylor, Chubb or Jones, or No. 3 wide receiver Diggs, who for me concludes the first positional tier (arguably he's 1A to the Adams/Hill Tier 1). This team gets to prioritize those positions, and given the choice, I'd rather have my pick of running back over locking in Diggs in the first round.
Round 2 (Pick 14): Assume, for a moment, that the top nine running backs and top three wide receivers are all off the board, because any of them who slides is well worth the selection here. It's time to dive into the next tiers at those positions, with Hopkins getting a bit underappreciated in the early ADP returns. This is the highest point at which you should begin thinking rookie Harris, though Jones or Gibson would still be wiser picks among running backs.
Tristan's picks: Taylor/Hopkins
Draft slot 12 (12-team leagues)
Round 1 (Pick 12): Can a zero-RB team win in a 12-team league? The answer is yes, but what ultimately matters is maximizing value with every selection, and if that means you land Hill and Diggs in this slot, consider yourself lucky. It's much more likely you'll go running back/wide receiver here, but the one certainty is that Diggs should not be allowed to slide past the 13th overall pick.
Round 2 (Pick 13): Again with that note about Diggs, if he's here with either pick, he's a superior choice to some of the running back alternatives likely there. That's assuming, of course, you took your pick from Taylor, Chubb or Jones with pick 12.
Tristan's picks: Diggs/Chubb