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          The Playbook: Your ultimate fantasy football guide to Week 1

          • Mike ClaySep 10, 2021, 08:44 AM ET
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              Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
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          Welcome to the Week 1 Fantasy Football Playbook!

          This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineups.

          The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. 'Matchup' is based solely on fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season. However, for Week 1, 2020 data is shown.

          Note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.

          Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans

          Over/Under: 51.2 (3rd-highest)
          Win Prob: Titans 56% (9th-highest)

          DFS Alert: Edmonds ($4,600) is grossly underpriced at DraftKings and should have your attention. He was RB25 in fantasy last season and is the 35th-priced RB in Week 1. His passing-game role is already nearly enough to pay off this price and he's expected to play a larger role as a rusher this season.

          Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

          • The highly anticipated Browns/Chiefs showdown features the week's highest projected point total (54.7) and projects a toss-up, which very well could mean we're in for a shootout. That's good news for fantasy.

          • For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes is the top QB play in the league this week and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce join him as lineup locks.

          • Cleveland's defense is much, much better than last season, but if they have a potential shaky area, it's up the middle, so Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be fine as a solid RB2. Mecole Hardman is a boom/bust flex option in deeper leagues.

          • For Cleveland, Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. should never be on benches, whereas Kareem Hunt and Jarvis Landry are good flex options this week. Baker Mayfield is a borderline starter and streaming option, considering the potential shootout.

          • Austin Hooper was underrated during draft season and is a fringe TE1 this week. Stay away from both D/STs.

          Over/Under: 54.7 (1st-highest)
          Win Prob: Chiefs 50% (16th-highest)

          Denver Broncos @ New York Giants

          • The game between Denver and New York features the lowest projected over/under of Week 1. Both teams have good (perhaps great) defenses, but also major question marks at the QB position. Daniel Jones was a fine late-round flier in fantasy drafts, but should not be close to lineups against Denver. The Broncos D/ST is an elite option against the turnover-prone Jones.

          • New York's skill players are shaky options, as well. In addition to the tough matchup, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay have both missed significant practice time to due injury. Barkley is more of an RB2 option, as he's expected to be limited in his return. Consider Golladay as a WR3 and Sterling Shepard as a deep-league flex. With Evan Engram sidelined, Kyle Rudolph is an option in 2-TE leagues.

          • For Denver, we're avoiding Teddy Bridgewater in his Broncos debut, but we are starting quite a few of his targets. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are WR3 options and Noah Fant is a back-end TE1. Melvin Gordon III and rookie Javonte Williams will both be busy in the backfield, but Gordon is the preferred flex as the veteran is likely to see more work early in the season.

          Over/Under: 39.2 (16th-highest)
          Win Prob: Broncos 52% (14th-highest)

          Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints

          • New Orleans and Green Bay will face off on neutral turf in Jacksonville this week.

          • New Orleans' roster took a bit of a hit during the offseason, but the defense is still pretty good. It's not the best matchup for Aaron Rodgers, but he's nonetheless a must start.

          • The Saints have been excellent against running backs in recent seasons and return most of their Front 7, so while Aaron Jones is a must start, it's not a great week to throw AJ Dillon in the flex.

          • Davante Adams will draw Marshon Lattimore in coverage, but is still the top wideout in fantasy and the only Packers receiver worth starting. Robert Tonyan is a TD-dependant borderline starting option.

          • With Michael Thomas out, Alvin Kamara is the only lineup lock for the Saints. Jameis Winston is a wild card in his debut as the starter and his group of targets isn't particularly inspiring, especially against a good Green Bay defense. Marquez Callaway is a flex option as he figures to see plenty of targets, but the Packers were terrific against the WR position last season and he'll certainly see some Jaire Alexander.

          Over/Under: 47.6 (6th-highest)
          Win Prob: Packers 66% (5th-highest)

          Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

          Over/Under: 46.3 (7th-highest)
          Win Prob: Jaguars 57% (8th-highest)

          DFS Alert: Jones is arguably the best DFS value at DraftKings this week. The veteran receiver checks in at $3,600, which is cheaper than 70 -- yes, seventy -- other wide receivers. This, despite an outstanding matchup against a shaky Houston defense that will be without top corner Bradley Roby. Jones has finished top 25 in both end zone targets and aDOT in each of the past five seasons.

          Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington

          Over/Under: 46.3 (8th-highest)
          Win Prob: Washington 62% (7th-highest)

          DFS Alert: Gibson ($5,900) is also one of the best value plays at DraftKings this week and should be all but locked into cash game lineups. Gibson finished as RB13 while piling up 11 touchdowns as a rookie, but he's priced at RB17 this week -- despite his likely playing an even larger role in his second season.

          Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

          Over/Under: 43.5 (15th-highest)
          Win Prob: Patriots 54% (12th-highest)

          DFS Alert: Looking for a high upside punt play at DraftKings this week? Consider Waddle, who is priced extremely low at $3,600 in his NFL debut. It's a tough matchup at New England, but (A) he won't cost you much, (B) Gilmore is out, and (C) Fuller's suspension means a clearer path to work for the No. 6 overall pick in April's draft.

          Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

          • The Vikings and their much-improved defense are favorites in this showdown with the Bengals. Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should never be on benches and are in good shape against a Bengals defense with remaining holes.

          • With Irv Smith Jr. out for the season, Tyler Conklin is worth a flier in 2-TE leagues. However, you likely have a better option than Kirk Cousins, even with the good matchup.

          • For the Bengals, Joe Burrow shouldn't be in lineups in his return from a knee injury, especially against a very good defense -- the Vikings D/ST is one of your top options in Week 1. That said, Joe Mixon should always be locked into lineups.

          • Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will face a tougher matchup than usual against the Vikings' overhauled cornerback room, but with rookie Ja'Marr Chase likely to be limited early on, both are viable WR3 plays.

          Over/Under: 45.4 (11th-highest)
          Win Prob: Vikings 66% (3rd-highest)

          DFS Alert: Higgins is a tremendous value at DraftKings this week. The second-year receiver is priced at $4,700. That places him 40th at wide receiver, despite the fact that he was WR21 in 14 full games as a rookie. This isn't an easy matchup, but with Chase still working his way up the ladder, Higgins should be Burrow's No. 2 target for a while.

          New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers

          • Sam Darnold revenge game! The former Jets QB will face his old teammates in Week 1, and though the Jets' defense remains full of holes, Darnold hasn't shown enough in his three-year career to be considered as a streaming option in a majority of leagues. Of course, Christian McCaffrey is the top asset in fantasy and is an obvious lineup lock.

          • Perhaps new coach Robert Saleh's scheme can protect the Jets' extremely shaky cornerback situation but, on paper, Carolina's wideouts are set up with an elite matchup. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are WR2 plays and the rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. is a deep sleeper against Bryce Hall, Javelin Guidry and a yet-to-be-determined Day 3/UDFA rookie.

          • On the Jets' side, Zach Wilson shouldn't be in lineups in his NFL debut and the same goes for RBs Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter, as we need to see how they are deployed in what could be a three-man committee with Ty Johnson.

          • Fire up Corey Davis as a WR3/flex. Jamison Crowder (if he's activated from the COVID-19 list) and rookie Elijah Moore are riskier options, but have some deep-league appeal against a Carolina defense with a lot to prove and missing A.J. Bouye.

          • Both D/ST units are viable streaming options considering the opposing offensive line and QB situations.

          Over/Under: 43.8 (14th-highest)
          Win Prob: Panthers 54% (13th-highest)

          Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons

          • This game might fly under the radar a bit, but it has a lot of storylines, including two rookie head coaches in Arthur Smith (Falcons) and Nick Sirianni (Eagles), as well as the pro debuts of top-10 rookies Kyle Pitts and DeVonta Smith. It's also the start of the "Jalen Hurts Era" for the Eagles. Hurts remains a bit of an unknown, but his aggressiveness and elite rushing ability make him a strong Week 1 QB play.

          • Miles Sanders is a ho-hum RB2 play. Smith should be peppered with targets right out of the gate and is on the WR3 radar, whereas Jalen Reagor is more of a deep-league flex. Dallas Goedert's stock is down with Zach Ertz locked into an offensive role, but you drafted him to be your starter, so he needs to be in your lineup.

          • For the Falcons, Matt Ryan has a decent matchup, but likely won't throw as much in Smith's scheme and doesn't add enough with his legs to make for anything more than a safe QB2. Mike Davis will face a good Eagles' run defense, but he's going to see a ton of work and is a viable RB2 this week.

          • Calvin Ridley and Pitts are weekly lineup locks and Russell Gage is a sleeper against Eagles' slot CB Avonte Maddox.

          Over/Under: 45.2 (12th-highest)
          Win Prob: Falcons 52% (15th-highest)

          DFS Alert: Like pretty much all rookies, Pitts is underpriced in his pro debut at only $4,400 at DraftKings. That's nearly half the cost of Kelce. Sure, Pitts is an unknown commodity, but he'll be heavily utilized as Ryan's No. 2 target and has a decent matchup against the Eagles linebackers and Maddox. He's also six inches taller than other top targets Ridley and Gage, which figures to mean plenty of work near the end zone.

          DFS Alert: Hurts checks in at $6,400 at DraftKings, which is eighth in line at QB. That's too low for a player who was QB3 while racking up 847 pass yards, 238 rush yards and six total TDs in three full games as a rookie. Atlanta allowed the second-most fantasy points to QBs last season and is arguably in worse shape in their secondary this season.

          Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

          • A pair of good defenses will face off in Buffalo in Week 1, which figures to keep the scoring in check a bit. Pittsburgh's defense is enough to knock Josh Allen down a spot or two in the rankings, but he and top target Stefon Diggs should never leave your lineup. Those two are the only must-starts, however, as Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are again expected to share backfield touches this season.

          • Even in this pass-first, WR-friendly scheme, there are only so many targets available for Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and Gabriel Davis. Beasley is the best flex play of the bunch.

          • Ben Roethlisberger was not a very good fantasy QB last season, so we're not interested in him this week against a good defense and behind one of the league's shakiest lines. Najee Harris, however, should be locked into lineups in his pro debut.

          • Pittsburgh was one of two teams with three top-25 fantasy wide receivers last season and all three (Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool) are viable WR2/WR3 out of the gate here in 2021.

          Over/Under: 45.6 (10th-highest)
          Win Prob: Bills 55% (10th-highest)

          DFS Alert: Harris is priced at $6,300 at DraftKings, which is lower than inferior options like Sanders, Edwards-Helaire, Robinson and D'Andre Swift. That doesn't add up, as Harris is a candidate for 20-plus touches in a not-so-intimidating matchup against Buffalo's Front 7. He's one of your best DFS values this week.

          Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

          Over/Under: 48.4 (5th-highest)
          Win Prob: Seahawks 55% (11th-highest)

          San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions

          • Despite playing on the road in Week 1, the 49ers are clear favorites against a rebuilding Lions team.

          • Neither QB is a recommended play, as Jared Goff is facing a good 49ers defense (one of your top Week 1 plays) and Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Trey Lance might both play significant snaps for San Francisco.

          • A healthy Raheem Mostert makes for a quality fantasy RB2, so plug him into your lineup, while leaving the rookie Trey Sermon benched until we see his role. D'Andre Swift has RB1 upside, but has missed a lot of practice time, so don't be surprised if he's limited a bit in Week 1. Both Swift and Jamaal Williams should be viewed as flex plays.

          • Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are the only lineup locks at wide receiver in this game, though Tyrell Williams is a flex option as Detroit's probable No. 1. This game also features two of the league's best tight ends in George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson. Both are top-five fantasy options.

          Over/Under: 46.2 (9th-highest)
          Win Prob: 49ers 70% (1st-highest)

          Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

          • The Rams are one of Week 1's biggest favorites in what figures to be a low-scoring game in Los Angeles. That could limit the Rams' passing attempts and, although their cornerback room is shaky, Chicago does have a decent overall defense. In other words, Matthew Stafford is not a must-start in his team debut.

          • It's yet to be seen how the Rams will distribute backfield touches, so we have to hedge a bit, but Darrell Henderson Jr. is fine as a borderline RB2, with Sony Michel best left on benches for now.

          • Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and a Rams D/ST set to face Andy Dalton are lineup locks and Tyler Higbee is a borderline TE1. Even though the Rams defense will take a step back this season, it's still a good unit, so we'll need to downgrade the Chicago offense in Week 1.

          • There's a good chance Allen Robinson II will draw superstar Jalen Ramsey shadow coverage, so while we can't bench a player of his caliber, we should lower our expectations. David Montgomery is a lineup lock, especially with Tarik Cohen out. Cole Kmet belongs on benches and Darnell Mooney should only be considered in deep leagues.

          Over/Under: 44.8 (13th-highest)
          Win Prob: Rams 70% (2nd-highest)

          Eliminator Alert: Week 1 doesn't have any slam dunks for Eliminator leagues, but the Rams at home against Dalton's Bears looks like perhaps your best play. Check out our Eliminator Cheatsheet for the full Week 1 rundown.

          Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

          Over/Under: 50 (4th-highest)
          Win Prob: Ravens 66% (4th-highest)

          Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

          • The 2021 NFL regular-season opener has arrived. It features an extremely intriguing showdown between a Tampa Bay squad that returns its entire Super Bowl champion core going up against a Dallas roster with an elite offense but a suspect defense.

          • Both quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Dak Prescott) should be locked into lineups in what projects as the week's second-highest-scoring game.

          • The same goes for most of the relevant wide receivers, as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper should never be benched, and Michael Gallup and Antonio Brown are viable WR3/flex plays. Cooper (5th), Lamb (11th) and Gallup (33rd) were all starting caliber fantasy WRs during Prescott's five games in 2020. That was also true for Evans (16.1 PPG), Godwin (12.5) and Brown (11.1) during the 10 games they played together in 2020 (including the playoffs).

          • Ezekiel Elliott is the only lock at RB after ranking top-five at the position in both carries and targets last season while posting his fifth straight top-12 fantasy campaign. Tampa Bay RBs Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard and Ronald Jones II have a decent matchup, but they will be operating in a three-man committee. None are great plays, but they can be used in your flex if you're desperate.

          • Boom/bust Rob Gronkowski is more of a TE2 after averaging 4.8 targets per game last season and with O.J. Howard back. Avoid Dallas' tight ends until we see how Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz share the snaps and targets.

          • The Tampa Bay defense is very good, but this is a week to avoid with the elite Dallas offense on tap.

          Over/Under: 54.4 (2nd highest in Week 1)
          Win Prob: Buccaneers 64% (6th highest)