Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has top-10 traits at the position. Just look at the nuanced route running. It's high level. Or focus on the explosive-play juice he brings to the field. Yeah, OBJ can stretch you vertically or erase pursuit angles in the open field. What about the catch radius to finish? That puts him in a position to make highlight grabs outside of his frame.
But as much as I love the talent with Beckham, we have to understand that fantasy football is a weekly game. And with a current ADP of WR26, which I think is pretty fair, the veteran is now in that WR3/flex range as he enters his second season in Browns coach Kevin Stefanski's run-heavy system.
Let's look a little deeper at Beckham's role, usage and his pass-game volume in Cleveland -- because it tells us there is a new reality for the wide receiver as a fantasy option entering the '21 season.
Cleveland's offensive structure
Last season, Cleveland ranked fourth in the NFL with 495 rushing attempts. Not a surprise, really, when looking at Stefanski's offensive philosophy, or the roster construction to fit his system. Remember, the Browns feature what may be the league's best running back duo in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, in addition to an offensive line that is built to move defenders off the ball.
In fact, the Browns held a 45.6% rush rate last season, while ranking 21st in offensive snaps and 26th in offensive pace. The old-school tempo here is slower, with a mirrored run/pass game that creates play-action opportunities for quarterback Baker Mayfield.
The result? An average of 5.9 targets -- and 3.3 receptions -- per game for Beckham last season, on his way to a total of 23 receptions for 319 yards in just seven games played. And while we are still operating with a small sample size given the ACL injury that cut Beckham's season short, his usage with Stefanski points to a receiver who -- if healthy enough to play a full slate of games in '21 -- will be in that 55-70 catch range.
With that projected reception total, Beckham would fit more as a flex option in your lineup.
Red zone limitations
During his peak fantasy years with the New York Giants from 2014 to '16, Beckham ranked third in red zone targets (64), red zone catches (36) and red zone TD catches (19), according to ESPN Fantasy researcher Kyle Soppe. Beckham was a prime option inside the plus-20 yard line, which brought instant offense and scoring upside to fantasy managers.
Throw the fades, slants, isolation routes. Let him win the one-on-ones, climbing the ladder to finish or using his sudden ability to separate. Go get six.
But we simply don't see that in Cleveland. Over the past two seasons with the Browns, Beckham has seen a red zone target in only 11 of his 23 games played, with a total of just 17 red zone targets, seven receptions and two touchdowns. That really hurts fantasy managers in all scoring formats.
Now look at it under Stefanski in 2020, where Beckham saw six red zone targets in seven games, with three receptions and one score -- on a schemed slant route in the Week 4 win over a subpar Dallas defense. Given Stefanski's recent history when his offenses have the ball in scoring position, I doubt the script will change.
When Stefanski called the plays for the Minnesota Vikings in 2019, the Vikings led the NFL in red zone rush rate at 60.1%. Yes, the number dipped slightly in his first season with the Browns to 53.8%, but that's still a top-10 red zone rush rate in the league. I get it, too. The head coach wants to put his bigs on the field and run the rock. And that doesn't translate to a major uptick in red zone targets for Beckham this season.
Beckham's route tree
Going into last season, I had Beckham slated as a WR2 in part because of the efficient pass game under Stefanski and the schemed verticals.
Think of the play-action shot plays for Mayfield. Max-up the protection, or boot the quarterback outside of the pocket. There's a reason the Browns led the NFL at 3.04 seconds before the pass in 2020. Those are designed concepts to give Mayfield time on deeper developing routes. And the Browns' quarterback delivered, with a deep on-target rate of 70.8%, which ranked ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
We saw an example of this with Beckham early in the season, during the Week 2 win over the Bengals (see video above). Run the boot concept with Beckham on a schemed double-move. That's how you set the table for your No. 1 receiver, catering to his route-running skills and the ability to separate on a third-level throw.
We're rolling here. And I expected more of this. Scheme him up on the double-moves, the deep overs or the straight go routes. There's your explosive-play target on play-action throws for Mayfield.
But, after seven games, Beckham checked in with only three explosive-play receptions (20 yards or more). That includes the vertical concepts, the catch-and-run balls, the isolation throws. In fact, Beckham, who used to rip off explosive plays on three-step slant routes in New York, averaged just 1.96 yards after the catch last season.
Do I think Stefanski can scheme more for Beckham to isolate him inside? Yes. Without a doubt. Go empty, flex a running back outside and target OBJ as a slot man. There's your free space to work, your free access off the ball and the open grass to attack. But, again, those opportunities are limited based on the tape and the numbers, as Beckham caught just 5-of-7 targets for 55 yards from slot alignments last season.
There is no question that Beckham can eat up the cushion on defensive backs and win into the boundary. That's on the tape. Run the comeback and the deep out. Nasty stuff. But, regardless of the scoring format I am playing in, I'm going to need some more big-play juice in my lineup from a receiver who isn't getting consistent target volume or scoring touchdowns.
Is Beckham still a weekly must-play?
ESPN's Mike Clay has Beckham projected to catch 69 passes (on 119 targets) for 980 yards and eight touchdowns this season. I would agree with Mike here, as long as Beckham can answer the questions about his availability after missing at least four games in three of the past four seasons due to injuries.
For now, let's say Beckham stays pretty healthy this season and he plays close to a full schedule. Even then, we have to remember that during his first two seasons in Cleveland, he's had only three games with more than 100 scrimmage yards, only one game with eight receptions and one more with seven grabs. And in that same time frame, Beckham has eight games with three or fewer receptions.
We all know Beckham is capable of ripping off monster games. And the Cleveland offense could facilitate those days where he catches multiple deep balls, or he gets loose on a couple underneath crossers with daylight after the catch. However, is that enough to make him a weekly starter in your lineup, or is Beckham now more of a matchup play?
In my summer non-PPR ranks, Beckham is my No. 23 WR. That's just slightly above his ADP. But I think his overall ceiling is somewhere in the high-end WR2 range, with a floor that is considerably lower due to the inconsistent volume, limited red zone opportunities and the overall offensive structure in Cleveland that we discussed above. That inconsistency makes him difficult to trust on a weekly basis, even as a WR3 or flex.
Yes, "talent rules" in fantasy, and Beckham has plenty of it. But there is also a new reality here that points to a receiver who might not check enough boxes to find a home in your lineup every week.