What Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson achieved statistically during the 2019 NFL season was incredible, but football fans and fantasy football managers alike should never again expect someone to throw 36 touchdown passes and rush for more than 1,200 yards in the same season. Focus more on Jackson's 2020 numbers because they were more reasonable, realistic and repeatable. Jackson was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2020.
That may be Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts in 2021. Those numbers, the ones Jackson achieved just last season, are attainable for him.
The obvious similarity between Jackson and Hurts is their running ability, and while we love passing yards and touchdowns, the running is what separates them for fantasy football excellence. Neither remind us of Dan Marino when throwing the football, and neither seems quite blessed with someone such as Jerry Rice to catch it. However, these great athletes add significant value with their legs. Hurts showed it in his brief audition in 2020, but really, this could be any quarterback with running ability. Never ignore them in fantasy or otherwise.
The Eagles surprised many when they ignored significant other needs and chose Hurts, the gifted Oklahoma quarterback, in the second round of the 2020 draft. Myriad questions followed, not the least of which dealt with how starting quarterback Carson Wentz may handle the pressure and sudden competition. He did not handle it well. Once given the opportunity, Hurts proved he was an unfinished product as a passer in his four late-season starts but ... he can definitely add value with his legs.
Today, things are a bit different in Philadelphia. Wentz is gone and the Eagles made it clear they are all-in with Hurts by not drafting another quarterback. They chose Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver DeVonta Smith to give him help. Later, they chose a prolific pass-catching running back in Kenneth Gainwell. They added to their offensive line depth in case of injury. Before injuries, this unit was among the best. Finally, the Eagles ousted Doug Pederson as coach and Nick Sirianni, perhaps more offensively open-minded, is in. The possibilities seem endless.
Hurts is clearly relevant from a fantasy football perspective, even if the Eagles may not exactly pile on the wins. I wrote about Hurts last summer, in the aftermath of the organization's stunning investment, and asked if he was the next Lamar Jackson. The Ravens, once they saw what they had in Jackson, constructed the offense around him. The Eagles are doing the same thing.
Sure, Hurts was not prolific throwing downfield a season ago, but the offense lacked any semblance of a deep, outside threat. Enter Alabama star Smith, who offers massive upside. Each of the team's running backs, from Miles Sanders to Boston Scott and Gainwell, catch passes. The offensive line is healthy, and deeper than a season ago. Tight end Dallas Goedert is on the precipice of emerging as a star. Sirianni offers a blank slate into how the offense can attack with Hurts as a Jackson-like weapon. It should be exciting.
For those worried about Hurts being an accurate passer or piling on the passing yards or touchdowns, worry about something else. Look at Jackson as an example. He averaged 22.2 PPR points per game in 2020, easily a top-10 figure at quarterback, and he did so without reminding people of Patrick Mahomes as a passer. Jackson did this with only 2,757 passing yards and 26 touchdown passes. He was Baker Mayfield in that regard, but then add in 1,000 rushing yards. Realize how valuable that makes a running passer!
According to ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe, 63.2% of Jackson's 2018 fantasy points came via his rushing prowess, an amazing and unsustainable figure. The average quarterback offered 13.2% of his fantasy points with typical running statistics that season. Jackson was more than competent as a passer in 2019, but still achieved a lofty 39.1% of his fantasy points running (and 42.8% last season). Hurts, in his small sample size, averaged 48.9% of his fantasy points with his legs, second to New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton, at 50.3%. Newton was not an effective passer, though. Hurts was passable. Jackson's 2020 season is a reasonable, perhaps ceiling comp for him.
For more perspective on how running ability offers a seemingly limited quarterback more statistical ceiling, Hurts averaged 11.3 rushing points per game late last season, which is roughly what awesome Green Bay Packers star Aaron Jones achieved. Jones is a first-round pick in many leagues. Hurts rushed for 106 yards in his first start versus New Orleans, and topped 60 yards in his next two outings. He played only half of the finale, through no fault of his own, when the Eagles controversially tanked the Washington game for better draft position. It worked.
If Hurts can continue with his effective running in 2021 -- and there is no reason to believe the Eagles will attempt to change him -- then he is an extremely valuable player. Hurts averaged more fantasy points with his running last season than Miles Sanders did! Perhaps Sanders is still on the upswing statistically, and incidentally, he and Hurts excelled together. It's not as if Hurts running the football took away from Sanders, as he had his best fantasy performance of the season in the raw quarterback's first start.
Fantasy managers are going to gravitate to Tampa Bay Buccaneers legend Tom Brady, and perhaps new Los Angeles Rams acquisition Matthew Stafford, reliable Atlanta Falcons starter Matt Ryan and Pittsburgh Steelers winner Ben Roethlisberger, but collectively, this group offers little value with their legs. Combined, they rushed for 221 yards. Hurts and Jackson may never throw the way they do, but the running ability more than offsets that. Hurts was a top-three fantasy quarterback in his three full games last season, on pace for 1,000 rushing yards. The pocket passers would need tons of passing yards and touchdowns to keep up.
Is Hurts a better fantasy selection than Brady, Stafford and the others? Well, he may be. Just because Jackson has eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards in consecutive seasons -- something nobody else, including Michael Vick, has ever done -- hardly means Hurts will match him. Perhaps expecting something like what Arizona Cardinals star Kyler Murray achieved, with 819 rushing yards, is more reasonable.
Regardless, Hurts hardly needs to approach 4,000 passing yards or rush for 11 touchdowns to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. He has the offensive playmakers around him and the confidence of the organization. He just needs to be himself.