Arguably the NFL's best wide receiver of the past decade has found a new home.
Julio Jones was traded to the Tennessee Titans along with a 2023 sixth-round pick in exchange for a 2022 second-round pick and 2023 fourth-round pick. This will be Jones' first change of scenery after spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the Falcons.
Only time will tell if the 32-year-old Jones remains an elite player, especially after an injury-plagued 2020 campaign. Jones missed seven full games and the better part of two others after totaling four missed games the previous six seasons. If there's reason for optimism, it's that Jones was extremely productive when healthy.
During those seven full games, Jones posted a 45-700-3 receiving line and was the No. 3 wide receiver in fantasy. His 11.2 yards per target was a career high and he finished top five in yards per route run for the eighth consecutive season. If not for the injuries, Jones likely would've posted his seventh straight top-seven fantasy campaign.
Impact on Titans
Jones is headed from one of the league's pass-heaviest offenses of the past few seasons in Atlanta to one of the run-heaviest in Tennessee. That may seem like a problem for Jones' fantasy outlook, but the Titans have a ton of available targets following the offseason departures of Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis and Adam Humphries (combined 192 targets, 41% target share in 2020). Jones likely would've been looking at a target share in the 21-23% range in Atlanta (he was at 24% when healthy in 2020) and could easily match that in what is likely to be a much higher-scoring offense. The Titans are tied for first (109) and the Falcons rank 21st (79) in offensive touchdowns over the past two regular seasons.
Emerging star A.J. Brown figures to remain Ryan Tannehill's top target, but Jones won't be far behind. Consider Brown a mid-range WR1 and Jones a solid WR2 option. The likes of Josh Reynolds, Cameron Batson and rookie Dez Fitzpatrick are next on the depth chart and this trade obviously crushes their sleeper appeal. Anthony Firkser's value takes a slight hit, but he remains a fringe TE2. The Titans already didn't target the RB much, so Derrick Henry remains a strong RB1 (elite in non-PPR formats) and Darrynton Evans a deep-league insurance stash. Tannehill was fantasy's No. 7 QB in 2020 and this move helps his stock as a back-end QB1.
Impact on Falcons
With Jones' approximate 21-23% target share off the books, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst are now positioned as Matt Ryan's top targets. Ridley is an obvious candidate for a career high in targets, but note that he was already top 10 at the position in targets (and end zone targets) in 2020 while finishing as WR5 in fantasy. Ridley handled a 22% target share (9.0 per game) in five full games with Jones last season, whereas he handled a 31% share (11.9) in the seven games Jones missed completely. Ridley was a top-three fantasy WR in both splits. With Arthur Smith now calling the shots, Ridley is no longer working in a pass-heavy scheme, but the 26-year-old will handle enough volume to secure him as a borderline top-five fantasy wide receiver.
Rookies are always an unknown -- and rookie tight ends are rarely fantasy-relevant -- but Pitts' elite pedigree (top-five pick), athleticism and situation suggests he has a path to enough volume for immediate TE1 numbers. Pitts' fifth-round ADP is tough to swallow, but it's possible he pays it off with Jones no longer in the picture. Gage, meanwhile, was already 22nd at wide receiver in targets last season and is now positioned as the team's No. 2 wideout. He handled a 20% target share and was WR15 in fantasy during five full games with Jones and Ridley last season. The 25-year-old's efficiency has been weak and we know the wide receiver position is very deep, but there's a path to a generous target share, so consider him a solid, late-round flier.
For updated Titans and Falcons projections (as well as the entire NFL), check out the updated 65-page Clay Projections PDF.